Rotation: Home and Away v Fixtures

Good analysis. Cheers for submitting.

Very interesting - many thanks.

Some exceptionally dodgy reasoning here. In my opinion.

In order to prove your point, you would have to correlate weak vs strong fixtures also, as well as taking into account those teams with exceptional home form(Palace) or appalling home form(Newcastle).

... so attacking players are more likely to score at home then away?

cheers for the data crunching

a pair of 9m defender giving me 60% cs chance i will take it. its more about who u are rotating with..

thanks for posting the article Sarge

the first part was interesting...it's useful to know the 60%-40% split

as to the second part I think you're saying that the top 10 are better than the bottom 10 (in a slightly confusing way) but so far as drawing any other conclusion goes I think I agree with Doosra

and your summary isn't justified...it would be fun to try to prove it but you'd need to pick your 3 defences before the season starts and crunch the stats for several seasons

the thing is we all know that chelsea and arsenal are good bets but the big questions are should we get 2 or 3 "expensive" defenders and how cheap can we go with these?...or more usefully does a azpilicueta/debuchy/4.0m type defence beat a ward/huth/ben davies type defence? assuming these cost the same (which they don't this season)

to save anybody the bother I'll guess the answer to my questions...it's going to vary from season to season and it'll vary within the season as well...sometimes you'll NEED expensive attackers and other times there will be good bargains making the expensive defence more affordable...past statistics are unlikely to be more than a tenuous guide to the new season's experience

I think you need to take into account certain venues rather than the league as a whole, also consider the style of the teams involved.
Some clubs are a fortress at home and very difficult to break down, others are more gung ho

Also 60 40 split is actually quite a big difference, not as insignificant as you make out

60/40 is a big difference, statistically speaking that means a third more clean sheets are kept at home than away. That is pretty much understood already though. The second point on fixture rotation isn't clear to me. You've taken 11th to 17th position but this doesn't take into account any outliers finishing above 11th where defensive rotation would be an option:

11/12: West Brom, Fulham, Newcastle
12/13: Swansea, West Brom
13/14: Newcastle, Stoke, Southampton

If your stats could identify the likely outliers for this season then you'd be onto something as implicitly this is where the defensive value lies. As it is, I'm not sure what the conclusion is from this

60/40 split is pretty significant if rotating home away all season.

Based on your figures if you played all home/home you would have approx 12 cs clean sheets for a rotating pair on avg whereas rotating away/away you end up with an average of 8 cs.

With two rotating pairs you end up with 8 cs less which is worth approx 40 pts or so (allowing for 1 bonus point per cs).

The bit about the difference between the bottom half of teams failing to score home or away been so small is fairly interesting but it would be better if we could see who they fail to score against i.e. was the percentage much different v the top half of the table v the bottom half in both the home and away stats.

I do agree with those above who say that rotation is very much team dependant as teams that are predictable i.e. much stronger defensively either home or away are the only ones that should be considered for h/a rotation. Teams that have limited ambition away (e.g. wham and villa last year) like you say can be a decent bet for rotating pairs based on fit difficulty.

Anyway some good stats and decent info, cheers buddy

Good analysis. Cheers