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Can David Silva Maintain His Strong Form?

David Silva has been a solid, but rarely spectacular Fantasy option over the last three years, racking up impressive assist numbers but rarely scoring enough goals and staying fit long enough to be an elite Fantasy option. But this season, Silva has found his goalscoring touch with nine league goals, tied for second among midfielders. I thought I’d take a look at Silva’s shots and chances created stats over the last three seasons and see if the stats back up what we’ve been seeing this year.

Key Stats 2012-2015

2012/13: 2516 minutes, 53 shots (1.90 p90), 37 shots in the box (1.32 p90), 103 chances created (3.68 p90) Shot accuracy: 56%.

2013/14: 2162 minutes, 53 shots (2.21 p90), 40 in the box (1.67 p90), 84 chances created (3.50 p90) Shot accuracy: 45%

2014/15: 1621 minutes, 33 shots (1.83 p90), 22 in the box (1.22 p90), 48 chances created (2.67 p90) Shot accuracy: 61%

Conclusions

Silva’s per-90-minute shot stats are pretty similar (if anything slightly worse) this season compared with 2012/13 and 2013/14. More worryingly, he’s averaging nearly a full chance created fewer per 90 minutes compared to the previous two seasons, which could explain why his assists are down so far this year. Looking at the stats, it seems to me like Silva’s goalscoring exploits are a bit of a fluke, brought on by a higher shot accuracy and conversion rate that could regress over the final 12 weeks of the season.

Granted, 1,600 minutes isn’t a huge sample size, but I don’t see why he should continue to outperform his traditional output. This is not to say he’s a bad option. He’s a nailed on attacker for one of  the best attacking sides in the Premier League. His production has been excellent at times over the last three seasons. There’s a lot to like. However, I don’t think Silva is a better prospect right now than he’s been at any other time over his Premier League career.

31 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    This gives this non Silva owner some hope. Hope you are right.

    1. SC not pearls before swine
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 1 month ago

      I think he'll be solid the rest of the way, but I really would be shocked if he continued at his current pace.

  2. GreenWindmill
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    Yaya has been teaching him how to shoot.

  3. andy85wsm
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    I've actually never been a fan of owning Silva, his returns never seem to match his performances.

    I only really got him on my wildcard because I didn't want Costa otherwise he would probably be a cheap midfielder instead.

    He's never one I'll captain but for now he remains in the team.

    This article might bring hope to those wanting to go without but we also need to take into account fixtures which are about to get very good for City. Look how Silva did over Christmas against weak opposition - albeit in a different position.

    1. SC not pearls before swine
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 1 month ago

      Yeah, agreed. I own Silva, and will likely keep him over the next 4-5, just because the fixtures are so good, but for those buying/keeping Silva, I don't think you can expect him to keep up the production he's had so far this year. That doesn't mean he couldn't be good, I just don't think he'll be as good...

  4. Crystal
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    'Bit of a fluke' doesn't really form concrete evidence. He's a good player playing well with good fixtures in a team that scores a lot

    1. Ruth_NZ
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 1 month ago

      Indeed.

      Over the last 3 seasons he has averaged 5.8 points per 90 minutes. That is a good rate for a 9.5 midfielder already.

      This season he is averaging 6.7 per 90. That is excellent.

      There are two obvious possibilities:

      A) His performance this season is an anomaly and he will probably regress towards the median;
      B) He has improved.

      Personally, having watched Silva live a few times I think B is more likely. He doesn't seem to drift out of games as much as he used to.

      I'm very happy keeping Silva because even at 5.8 points per game (as over the last 3 seasons) he's worth his spot. But with a player like Silva you are buying the team as much as the player. City are creating an awful lot of chances this season and when they score Silva is often involved. It won't surprise me at all if he keeps doing well till the end of the season.

    2. SC not pearls before swine
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 1 month ago

      In my final paragraph: "This is not to say he’s a bad option. He’s a nailed on attacker for one of the best attacking sides in the Premier League. His production has been excellent at times over the last three seasons. There’s a lot to like." So I agree, I just don't think he's turned into a 15 goal a year guy. I think Ruth is right, I just think his performance is a more of an anomaly. I could be wrong, and it could be genuine improvement in his finishing.

  5. Daniel Exeter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    Form + fixtures make it nice owning him at the moment.

    • 10 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    shots down, shots in box down, chances created down. I'll pass thanks 🙂

    1. andy85wsm
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 1 month ago

      Still managed to score fairly well:

      16, 14, 6, 2, 7, 2, 7, 2, 5, 17

        • 10 Years
        9 years, 1 month ago

        Clearly, but the figures I mention are better predictors of future performance than the ones you do.

  6. kalmoffit
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    So the stats are inconclusive.

  7. Christina.
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    One of Silva or Nasri is a must for LEIC/burn/WBA/cpal/manu/WHAM/VILLA/spurs/QPR me thinks.

    1. andy85wsm
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 1 month ago

      Once the DGW is over I'm thinking Eriksen to Nasi and doubling up.

      1. andy85wsm
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 1 month ago

        tripling* - Silva, Aguero and Nasri

  8. ANON.
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    Foster
    Clyne, Koscielny, Wollscheid, Baird
    Sanchez, ADM, Puncheon, Boyd
    Aguero, Defoe

    Myhill, Terry, Hazard, Kane

    3.1m in the bank with 2 free transfers.
    This is exact cash to do
    Puncheon + Defoe -> Eriksen + Austin next week

    ADM to Silva this week for free?

  9. Nickofoz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    Great article SC, very interesting statistics those, I think they are quite telling.

    I think I'll do ADM -> Eriksen in GW28 instead of ADM -> Silva. Right move?

    1. SC not pearls before swine
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 1 month ago

      Thanks! In my opnion, yes I'd almost always rather have a double gameweeker than a single, but I guess the fixture pileup for Spurs makes it a little more of a gamble, but if you think Eriksen will get 2 starts over the double I think he's the better pick.

      1. Nickofoz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 1 month ago

        Agreed, thanks SC.

        What are your plans for the next few weeks?

        1. SC not pearls before swine
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 1 month ago

          Selling Wisdom this week, likely for Dawson. For week 28, I'll have two free transfers so I'll be looking at getting Eriksen/Austin and maybe a Spurs defender for a hit, or just two of the three for free, depending on how things shake out.

          1. Nickofoz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            9 years, 1 month ago

            Contrary to popular belief I'm actually not too much of a fan in regards to the first move.

            As we have already seen Pulis loves rotation, all it takes is one or two poor defensive performances and then rotation beckons.

            What is your current defense?

            1. SC not pearls before swine
              • 13 Years
              9 years, 1 month ago

              Yeah, true.

              Ivanovic/Clyne/Bellerin/PVA/Wisdom.

              I'm actually leaning toward Naughton or Haidra now, because I won't actually be able to afford Austin/Eriksen if I get Dawson. The possibility pushes Naughton on me even more.

              1. Nickofoz
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                9 years, 1 month ago

                Yep, Wisdom -> Naughton sounds good.

  10. ronmadpirlo
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    It is ridiculous that you have not included any mention of PPM in your article.

    Last season he had a very strong ppm and would have been very good value while he was fit.

    1. SC not pearls before swine
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 1 month ago

      He was very solid last year, but do you agree he has been the best fantasy option this season that he's ever been? Ruth posted above that his points per 90 minutes this season is 6.7 compared to 5.8 last year, so I don't really think it's debatable that so far this year, he's been the best he's ever been, from a fantasy perspective. The main point of my article is that because his shots/chances created are down, I think that's a fluke rather than genuine improvement. I think he's likely to regress to the fantasy player he's been the last couple seasons, which is solid, but not as explosive he's been so far this year.

      As for PPM, I don't really know how relevant it is, because I'd rather look at points per million, but also control for minutes and that just seems like a lot of legwork. I'd assume Nasri had a superior PPM to Silva last year because he was cheaper and scored more total points, right?

      1. ronmadpirlo
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 1 month ago

        Yes I agree he has been the best this year. My point is that despite this he was still a very strong option last year. I agree that there is a possibility he is overperforming FPL-wise but if he returns to last year's points scoring he would still be a very strong option when fixtures are in his favour (like now).

        I actually meant points per minute sorry for the confusion.

        1. SC not pearls before swine
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 1 month ago

          Ha, true. That's basically the point of my article. I think he'll still be good, just not as good as he's been.

  11. Shankly Gates
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    I'm probably in the minority with possibly having 12 game week players…

    should I ...

    1 upgrade this week
    2 try a one week punt
    3 use one of my 2FTs to prepare for DGW.?

    Foster

    Bellerin, Naughton, McAauley

    Cazorla, Sterling, Walters, Mane

    Sturridge, Aguero, Ideye

    Bench : Pantilimon, Clichy Hazard Azpil

    If I use one of the transfers this week say Azpil to Rose/Vertongen
    or Hazard to Eriksen then I can have 3 DGW players …
    Thanks

  12. stuart21
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    But would you captain him or sanchez this week?

  13. The Fat Cat
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    Yawn, cmon game week start already