The Men In Black – Gameweek 24

After posting last week’s article, I must say I felt a little betrayed by the referees when Gamweek 23 finished. Craig Pawson gave his first penalty of the season to Sergio Aguero, while the usually spot kick happy Robert Madley and Roger East waved away all penalty claims. Furthermore, the usually card addicted Mike Dean issued a single yellow over 90 minutes.  It was as though they were doing everything to shake off their reputations.

Hopefully I haven’t jinxed myself as I outline some of the most eye-catching referee appointments of Gameweek 24. As well as each referees’s record, the game’s context is also important.  For example, Mark Clattenburg is a referee that has a fairly low yellow and red card rate this season. Yet in the Arsenal v Chelsea match he produced four yellow cards and a straight red for Mertesacker. A factor such as a London derby game might influence the referees to break from their stereotype in these circumstances. With this in mind I have made a brief summary of each fixture for Gameweek 24 based on the referee appointed and included any players that may be noteworthy.

Lee Mason – Arsenal v Southampton

This season, Lee Mason has earned himself the reputation as quite a lenient referee. He is quite reluctant to show yellow or red cards and very rarely gives penalties unless they are blatant. This could benefit both side’s defences, allowing them to make more tackles than usual without the fear of being booked first time round. With Southampton’s defensive record of late this could benefit the likes of Virgil Van Dijk and Jose Fonte, while making the prospects of Arsenal attack diminish.

Andre Marriner – Leicester v Liverpool

On the other end of the spectrum, Andre Marriner is quite a strict referee boasting the second highest yellow card rate (3.83 per game) along with an above average red card rate. In terms of penalties (one every three games) he ranks on par with Jonathan Moss and close to Mike Dean. This means Jamie Vardy and Jordan Henderson could avail, though I think Leicester’s defence has tightened up somewhat recently whereas the latter’s has worsened. Of all the fixtures for GW24, this will be the most interesting one in my view.

Kevin Friend – Norwich v Spurs

Here we have a referee that is fairly average in respect to cards shown, though he has only given one penalty in twelve games. Having said that, Norwich’s defence has been rather poor of late, and it would be understandable if one was awarded in this match. Harry Kane and Christian Eriksen could benefit greatly from this game, but I think it’s also worthy watching Dele Alli who seems to score well on the road. Considering Norwich are the third highest team in the last six Gameweeks for Big Chances conceded, the trio could continue making steady returns.

Stuart Attwell – Sunderland v Man City

The Black Cats have been a bogey team for Man City in recent years, but at the moment both teams look poor at the back and this could be a high-scoring game. Attwell is a hard referee to predict considering he is lenient with yellow cards but is very quick to go to showing the red card. He has a tendency to wave away penalty calls but has only refereed three matches so far this season. So for Attwell, we haven’t really seen enough of him yet to make a judgement but if we do see a penalty, we may likely see Sergio Aguero benefit once again. For Sunderland, one of Fabio Borini or Adam Johnson may end up on spot kick duties depending on who happens to be on the pitch at the time.

Jonathan Moss – West Ham v Aston Villa

I must say I have high expectations for West Ham in this game, even more so for Dimitri Payet who looked fantastic against Man City. Jonathan Moss is fairly average for giving cards in comparison to his fellow referees, but his penalty rate is in the higher bracket (1 in 3 games on average). This could mean a surprise points haul for those brave enough to punt on Mark Noble. Though given Aston Villa’s relatively poor defensive history this season, coupled with West Ham’s form, I suspect there will plenty of free kick chances for Payet.

Mike Jones – Crystal Palace v Bournemouth

Both sides have struggled to find any real vein of form recently, so I find this game a tough one to predict since either team could turn it around in this match. Mike Jones dishes out the bookings as often as any other referee and has a low red card risk. With a penalty rate of two in sixteen games, he remains on the lower end of the table. Though both sides have struggled at the back and it would not surprise me to see a spot kick awarded to either team. For Crystal Palace, the duty falls to Yohan Cabaye, whereas Charlie Daniels has been appointed penalties for Bournemouth recently. It is worth mentioning that Bournemouth lie second for Big Chances conceded from the last six Gameweeks so I think their clean sheet prospects look bleak. Hence I think Daniels owners rely on a penalty for a respectable return, which is perhaps a lot to expect.

Roger East – Man United v Stoke

We are all too familiar with Roger East now at this stage, with his fairly placid approach to the game in terms of cards, yet carrying a high penalty risk. Though we should expect this to be a low-scoring game, perhaps even a 0-0, if a penalty goes one way or the other it will benefit Wayne Rooney or Bojan. With the absence of Ryan Shawcross, will Stoke find it difficult to keep a clean sheet or defy the odds again like they did at Anfield in the Capital One Cup this week? Owners of Jack Butland will have plenty of decisions to make.

Neil Swarbrick – West Brom v Swansea

Unfortunately, Neil Swarbrick has a high yellow card total, both in his career average and this season’s average (4.25 cards per match). Leading for yellow cards in the Swansea team are popular picks Ashley Williams (4) and Gylfi Sigurdsson (5) whereas West Brom defenders such as Jonny Evans (1) and Craig Dawson (2) pose a fairly low risk. Swarbrick gives red cards as often as other referees, but has a low rate of awarding penalties (1 in 8 games) meaning the likes of Sigurdsson and the recently out of position Andre Ayew may find it that bit tougher to find attacking returns, especially if Tony Pulis’ backline are on form.

Craig Pawson – Everton v Newcastle

Despite giving his first penalty of the season last week, Craig Pawson generally is very reluctant to award them (1 penalty in 19 matches). He also carries a below average rating for showing yellow and red cards this season, though looking at his overall career stats, we might expect this to balance itself out over the season. This means popular defenders such as Leighton Baines and John Stones might get away with a few warnings before a booking. For the likes of Romelu Lukaku and Aleksandar Mitrovic, the chances of a penalty look bleak according to the stats but the former could still deliver a haul considering Newcastle rank top for Big Chances conceded in the last six Gameweeks.

Mike Dean – Watford v Chelsea

Like Andrew Marriner, Mike Dean’s reputation precedes him as a strict referee. With 3.6 yellow cards per match and a red card every three games on average he certainly has a no nonsense approach to the game. This means the likes of card-prone strikers Diego Costa (6) and Troy Deeney (5) will need to tread carefully along with midfielders Nemanja Matic (4) [should he start] and Etienne Capoue (4). In addition to this, Dean awards a penalty every 2.7 games on average, with Madley and East the only referees ahead of him for this frequent awarding of spot kicks. The likely players to avail of this would be Deeney and Chelsea’s new number one penalty taker Oscar.