Navigating the Blanks – Part Two

Gameweek 26 is a pivotal one for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers. We’re just a few days away from the first blank fixtures of 2016/17, while the recent raft of FA Cup results has given us a much clearer picture of the blanks to follow in Gameweek 28.

There is now enough information to devise a transfer plan that will allow us to navigate the upcoming schedule.

We’ve known for a month that the following Gameweek 26 fixtures will be blanks due to Southampton and Manchester United’s participation in the EFL Cup Final:

Southampton vs Arsenal
Manchester City vs Manchester United

Beyond this, Gameweek 28 is on the same weekend as the FA Cup Quarter-finals. Five Premier League teams won their FA Cup Fifth Round ties over the weekend, which means that the five Gameweek 28 fixtures featuring those sides will be blanks.

Here’s the draw for the FA Cup Quarter-finals:

Chelsea vs Manchester United
Middlesbrough vs Huddersfield Town or Manchester City
Arsenal or Sutton United vs Lincoln City
Tottenham Hotspur vs Millwall

And this is how last weekend’s FA Cup results have affected the fixtures in Gameweek 28:

Man City’s replay against Huddersfield will be on Wednesday March 1 and, until that is decided, City’s fixture with Stoke City in Gameweek 28 remains intact, although, in fairness, it seems likely that this will also drop out of the equation.

Planning Transfers

As a general rule, you should use your free transfers over the next three Gameweeks to ensure that you have as many active players as possible to cover Gameweeks 26 and 28.

Burnley’s shock defeat to Lincoln City ensures that their Gameweek 28 trip to Liverpool will now take place and means there are now eight teams who have fixtures in both Gameweeks 26 and 28.

Bournemouth
Burnley
Everton
Hull City
Liverpool
Swansea City
West Bromwich Albion
West Ham United

Everton are arguably the big draw; they have maintained strong form since the turn of the year and their fixtures remain favourable over the next four Gameweeks (SUN, tot, WBA HUL).

The Toffees are undefeated in the seven home matches against teams below them in the table, having won five, drawn two, kept three clean sheets and outscored their opponents by 17 goals to six. In those fixtures, Romelu Lukaku (9.9) has scored eight goals and racked up an impressive 68 points.

Ross Barkley (7.1) and Seamus Coleman (5.9) are Everton’s joint second highest goal scorers in the league this season; both are in decent form, but Coleman’s consistency – and ability to claim clean sheets – makes him a more attractive FPL option. The rest of Everton’s regular first choice back five all deserve consideration, though Ramiro Funes Mori (4.7) may well offer the best value for money.

As we’ve revealed in recent members articles, Hull City and Swansea City have shown significant signs of improvement since appointing new managers at the start of January. The pair are arguably the most worthwhile sources of talent among the current bottom eight and will play a key role in our thinking in the short-term.

Hull have the most favourable upcoming schedule according to the Fixture Ticker (BUR, lei, SWA, eve, WHM, MID). Their attacking players have shown glimpses, though are yet to break out as options, but the Tigers’ backline warrants immediate consideration. Harry Maguire (4.4), Andrew Robertson (4.3) and goalkeeper Eldin Jakupovic (4.1) remain the standout candidates.

After a daunting trip to Stamford Bridge in Gameweek 26, Swansea will look to continue their buoyant form in the next four Gameweeks (BUR, hul, bou, MID).

With just 12.4% ownership, Gylfi Sigurdsson (7.5) is still a relative differential and, having scored or assisted in five of his last six matches, has to be a consideration for Gameweek 27 or 28. Free-scoring centre-back Alfie Mawson (4.5) and raiding left-back Martin Olsson (4.5) both netted in the previous Gameweek and, in their next pair of home fixtures, will face two of the lowest scoring sides away from home this season in Burnley and Middlesbrough.

Liverpool are undoubtedly a welcome and unexpected addition to the Gameweek 28 landscape.

Jurgen Klopp’s side registered an impressive victory over Spurs before jetting off to La Manga this week; they will now be hoping to maintain the high-tempo style of football that blew teams away earlier in the season.

After his brace against Spurs, the Sadio Mane bandwagon is gaining some real pace.

Already over 175,000 FPL managers have bought him in this Gameweek and, looking at the upcoming fixtures (lei, ARS, BUR, mci, EVE, BOU), you can see why; he could even be a captaincy option in the Gameweeks when many of the other big-hitters will face blanks.

The other members of Liverpool’s front three, Roberto Firmino (8.4) and Philippe Coutinho (8.2), may also prove to be popular targets heading into Gameweek 28 if either produce attacking returns against Leicester or Arsenal. We have a members article, revisiting Liverpool’s midfield options, set for publish later today.

As for West Ham, four of their next six matches are away from home (wat CHE bou LEI hul ars) which, given their troubles at the London Stadium, could actually promote interest in their assets.

Manuel Lanzini (6.3) is the differential option in their ranks: he’s registered one goal and three assists in West Ham’s last two away clashes.

Four of Andy Carroll’s last five goals have also come away from home and, fitness permitting, he remains a consideration at 6.3.]

Michail Antonio and Robert Snodgrass also cannot be overlooked for our five-man midfields. Antonio has registered nine big chances away from home, more than any midfielder, while Snodgrass is settling in a number 10 role and demands monitoring at Watford this weekend.

West Brom face Bournemouth and Crystal Palace at home in the next two Gameweeks, but four of their following seven fixtures are against sides in the top seven. Confidence in Matt Phillips has slipped, restricting our interest to backline assets – Chris Brunt and Gareth McAuley, in particular.

Burnley have been dire on the road all season and now face four successive away trips. Even so, Tom Heaton’s owners may well now hold, while Ashley Barnes also presents a rock-bottom option up front who at least offers assured starts; rested in the FA Cup defeat to Lincoln, he has been ever-present over the last nine Gameweeks.

As for Bournemouth, Josh King, with three goals in four and a move up front, looks to be their only viable attacking option.

Many FPL managers may not be able to field a fully active XI in Gameweek 28 (or even in Gameweek 26) without spending points on extra transfers. Taking “hits” can allow FPL managers to restock and, by making moves prior to Gameweek 28, there is the possibility of improving short-term prospects while also reinforcing against missing players for Gameweek 28.

However, this tactic comes accompanied by some major caveats. Injury and suspension and – as we’ve seen with Bournemouth’s Junior Stanislas of late – rotation can be factors. In addition, with the double Gameweeks to come, we should always be mindful of going overboard and chasing a full Gameweek 28 XI, when perhaps few points are at stake.

As I said in my previous article, the main factors that should determine your forthcoming transfer plans concern how many fixtures each player will face in the next three Gameweeks (and the strength of those fixtures), their form, and how much they’ve risen in price since you acquired them.

Bear in mind that the teams who are set to blank will get double Gameweeks later in the season and it might cost you at least 0.2 to sell a player ahead of his blank and then buy him back ahead of his double Gameweek. You should obviously look to sell outfield players who aren’t regular starters for their clubs as the strength of the players that you normally leave on your bench will be tested in Gameweek 28.

Southampton, Manchester United and Arsenal will have blanks in both Gameweek 26 and 28 (and so will Manchester City if they win their FA Cup Fifth Round replay).

That means that two of the most expensive and widely owned FPL assets – Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Alexis Sanchez – have just one fixture in the next three Gameweeks, creating a dilemma for their owners.

Ibrahimovic (105k+) has suffered more sales than Sanchez (75k+) so far this Gameweek, but the former has stronger fixtures around the blanks.

United host Bournemouth and West Brom and travel to Southampton and Middlesbrough in their next four fixtures, whereas Arsenal entertain Leicester and Man City and travel to Anfield and The Hawthorns.

Beyond the Blanks

After the blanks in Gameweek 28, our focus should turn to preparing for the double Gameweeks later in the season.

It’s worth noting that last term, the dates for the majority of the rescheduled matches were confirmed on the Tuesday after FA Cup Quarter-final weekend.

As I mentioned in my previous article, I’m assuming that the fixtures that clash with the FA Cup Semi-finals in Gameweek 34 will be moved to the following midweek (this would protect FA Cup semi-finalists, and their Gameweek 34 opponents, from suffering blanks).

There will be either seven or eight postponed fixtures from Gameweeks 26 and 28 that will need to be rescheduled; the midweeks in Gameweeks 34 and 37 are the only two slots in the second half of the season which are free for the rescheduling of postponed fixtures.

It is perhaps unlikely to fit all the postponements into Gameweeks 34 and 37, so one or two will likely need to be played on the same night as UEFA matches (in Gameweek 32, 33, 35 or 36).

There will definitely be at least two separate double Gameweeks this season; Gameweek 37 is the only one that is currently guaranteed and is also likely to contain more rescheduled fixtures than the other double Gameweek(s).

Those who have kept hold of their Bench Boost and Triple Captain chips will doubtless look to use them in the double Gameweeks to exploit the potential point “bonanzas” on offer.

If there’s a bumper double Gameweek 37 and one or two small double Gameweeks beforehand, it would seem likely that most will look to their Bench Boost chip in Gameweek 37 and Triple Captain chip in another double Gameweek.

Remaining second Wildcards are also likely to be saved for this period, played between Gameweek 29 and 37 and used to offload assets from the teams without earlier blanks to acquire double Gameweek assets. It’s worth noting that Arsenal, Man United, Southampton and Man City (assuming they beat Huddersfield) will have two separate double Gameweeks.

Keep in mind that the teams with nothing left to play for at the end of the season may well look to rotate in Gameweek 37, so a late second Wildcard will have to cope with that risk. Hopefully, the relegation battle and the tussle for the European places will go right down to the wire to relieve that stress point.