Assessing the Differentials – Midfielders

Yesterday, we rolled out an article on Defensive Differentials from now until the winter wildcard, as we analysed those overlooked options who may benefit from kind upcoming schedules over the next 13 Gameweeks.

Next, we cast an eye over the midfield landscape, where one look at the ownership in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game, highlights a somewhat stale state of affairs. Raheem Sterling and Cesc Fabregas currently sit in over 50% of sides, Gylfi Sigurdsson is now up to 45% and United’s Angel di Maria is rapidly catching up – over 127,000 managers have acquired the Argentine over the international break, taking his ownership level to the brink of 39%.

Clearly, then, there’s plenty of scope right now for bringing one or two differentials into the centre of the park – right now, snapping up a low-owned player on the brink of hitting form could easily trigger a climb up the rankings. With this in mind, we scour the price brackets and fixture lists and also throw in a punt or that could potentially make the difference.

Alexis Sanchez and Theo Walcott
The Chilean’s top-flight pitch time has been surprisingly curtailed by Arsene Wenger as he becomes accustomed to the rigours of the Premier League. Sanchez has, nonetheless, scored in two of his last three league starts and as the injuries build up in midfield, his manager will surely become more dependent on the former Barcelona man to re-ignite the Gunners’ faltering title bid. At 10.3, though, Sanchez is the second most expensive midfielder in the game and resultantly sits in just 11% of sides but has a very kind schedule which lends weight to his potential – Arsenal face just four of last term’s top eight (MUN, SOT, liv, sot) until the winter wildcard kicks in.

Finally back in full training yesterday, Walcott’s return could hand us the ultimate in differentials – proven Fantasy royalty with a 0.1% ownership. As evidenced last season, though, Wenger does have a tendency to ease him into the fray immediately after injury– he was handed four sub appearances in a row before taking his place in the XI. Walcott did, however, still manage to grab two assists over that period and his pace off the bench looks an invaluable asset until his match sharpness is up to speed.

Steven Gerrard and Jordan Henderson
Every year, the Liverpool skipper’s chances are dismissed – “He’s playing too deep and/or he only relies on penalties” is the usual maxim. Yet Gerrard continues to defy the doubters and despite earning 32 points – just eight less than team-mate Sterling – he sits in just 5% of FPL teams ahead of a schedule which pits the Merseysiders against just three of last year’s top eight (CHE, mun, ARS) over the next 13 Gameweeks. Intriguingly, Gerrard was moved to the role in “the hole” in the last 15 minutes of the Gameweek 7 win over West Brom and created four chances in this more advanced berth – it seems unlikely that Brendan Rodgers will retain this set-up as Daniel Sturridge returns to action but it certainly adds to the veteran’s points potential should his manager alter his tactics mid-match.

Henderson also cannot be overlooked. Starting behind lone striker Rickie Lambert last time around, he served up a 13-point tally against West Brom before dropping deeper as Gerrard moved forward. Still sitting at his initial price of 6.0, Henderson is owned by just 12% FPL managers, yet sits only six points behind Sterling so far.

David Silva and James Milner
The City pair also have a strong schedule to take advantage of. Manuel Pellegrini’s side square up to just four of last term’s top eight (TOT, MUN, sot, EVE) from now until winter wildcard time but given that three of those fixtures are at home, their points potential is obvious. There’s no doubt that Silva has yet to find his stride in Fantasy terms – picking up returns in only one of the last six Gameweeks – but with Yaya Toure failing to recapture last year’s sensational showing, the Spaniard looks the likeliest of the champions’ midfielders to deliver.

Milner, undoubtedly, is more of a punt but at just 5.3 to Silva’s 9.1, may be worth the risk. The much-maligned midfielder has now started each of the last four and has, impressively, created more chances than Silva over that period, by 16 to 14. It’s by no means definite he’ll retain his starting berth once Samir Nasri has recovered from groin surgery but, for now, his displays out wide certainly seem to have edged him ahead of Jesus Navas for the role on City’s right.

Dusan Tadic and Sadio Mane
Set to tussle for our attentions over the next five fixtures (SUN, STO, hul, LEI, avl), the Southampton pair arrive at St Mary’s with some impressive returns at their former clubs. Tadic racked up 28 goals and 29 assists in his final two seasons at FC Twente and, whilst he only delivered a trio of assists so far, sits second amongst midfielders for shots (17) – bearing in mind he’s the Saints’ number one for spot-kicks and set-pieces, though, he seems the man most likely.

Mane is more than capable of delivering, though – he produced 45 goals and 32 assists over 87 appearances in the Austrian top-flight and is the cheapest of the two, at 6.9 to 7.5. Both are owned by less than 3% of FPL managers right now, though you may want to pencil in an exit strategy around Gameweek 13 – Koeman’s side then face six of last term’s top eight until the winter wildcard kicks in.

Nacer Chadli and Christian Eriksen
With Sigurdsson clearly regarded as the mid-price midfielder of choice, his former Tottenham team-mate remains relatively under the radar. Four goals in seven appearances has helped Chadli pick up 42 points – just four less than the Swansea playmaker – yet he so far sits in just 11% of sides, with his price climbing to 6.4. The Belgian’s stats underline why he’s been so prolific this year; a total of 14 shots inside the box is joint-top with Raheem Sterling amongst midfielders. Having missed Belgium’s clash with Bosnia due to a hip problem last night, though, we’re keeping an eye on his fitness ahead of the weekend trip to City.

Eriksen’s threat has been limited mainly to long-distance – only five of his 16 shots have been inside the box – but a move to the centre of the attacking midfield three has helped him serve up two double-figure hauls in the last four. Dropping to 7.8 in price, he retains the faith of only 7% of FPL managers but once this weekend’s Etihad visit is out of the way, Spurs have five strong home clashes (NEW, STO, EVE, CPL, BUR) in addition to trips to Villa, Hull, Swansea and Leicester in the lead up to Gameweek 21.

Wayne Routledge
Owned by less than 2% of FPL managers, the Swansea wide man took his tally to two goals for the season in Gameweek 7. At 5.5 in FPL, Routledge leads the way amongst Garry Monk’s midfield for touches in the box (16) and efforts inside the area – his tally of six is just one less than the combined total of Sigurdsson (four) and Nathan Dyer (three), for example. Granted, the Welsh side’s fixtures between Gameweek 10-12 are far from appealing but they still have some kind home matches (LEI, CPL, QPR, TOT, AVL) and a quartet of away trips (sto, whm, hul, qpr) which may bring Routledge onto our radars.

Stewart Downing
Shifted to a central role as Sam Allardyce opted for a midfield diamond, Downing is enjoying something of a renaissance as a Fantasy prospect. After seven Gameweeks, the Hammers man has produced 37 points – two less than Eden Hazard – yet in spite of a kind 5.6 price tag, sits in only 5% of FPL teams. Downing is joint-top with Cesc Fabregas for chances created this season (22) and has also fired 12 attempts on goal – in both instances, this is superior to the likes of Sigurdsson. With Diafra Sakho and Enner Valencia leading the line, West Ham look a different prospect altogether this season and with a schedule that pits them against just four of last year’s top eight (MCI, eve, che, ARS) from now until the winter wildcard kicks in, Downing has the platform to impress further.

Kevin Mirallas
Yes, he’s injured at the moment. We’re keeping an eye on the Everton midfielder, though, after Roberto Martinez confirmed he hopes to have him “fully fit soon” after sustaining a hamstring injury in Gameweek 6. With two goals to his name already, Mirallas has fired 13 attempts – an average of 27.2 minutes per shot is second only to Andre Schurrle amongst midfielders with at least four starts – and bearing in mind the Toffees face just three of last season’s top eight (tot, mci, sot) in the upcoming 13 Gameweeks, the fixtures could barely be kinder for the 2%-owned Belgian.

Oscar
The Brazilian’s total of nine shots inside the box is bettered only by Chadli and Sterling in midfield so far and, impressively, is greater than Cesc Fabregas and Eden Hazard (one and six) combined. Having picked up a goal and assist over his last three appearances, Oscar is starting to rediscover his form after a sluggish start to the campaign – at 8.3, with a 2% ownership, he could offer a viable alternative in Jose Mourinho’s side if he can nail down a regular role. Frustratingly, Oscar has yet to start three back-to-back matches but with his form flourishing in recent internationals (with a pair of assists in Brazil’s win over Argentina) an extended run in the top-flight would strengthen his claim for consideration.

Jason Puncheon
The Palace winger has made a consistent, if somewhat unspectacular, start to the current campaign. Puncheon has scored or assisted in four of his six appearances for Neil Warnock’s outfit and has already mirrored last year’s tally of three assists. In terms of goal threat, Puncheon’s 16 attempts (double Sigurdsson’s eight) is fourth amongst midfielders – suggesting that, although he’s only scored once, he could yet match or even better last year’s seven strikes if he ups his conversion rate. Granted, the next 13 fixtures are somewhat mixed for the Eagles but for a price of 5.9, Puncheon’s rate of attempts could still prove decent value.

Scott Arfield
If Burnley are to avoid the drop, their next five home matches looks vital in building momentum. Sean Dyche’s side welcome West Ham, Everton, Hull, Villa and Newcastle to Turf Moor in the next seven Gameweeks and Arfield, at just 5.0, could be key to their prospects. Having netted against Chelsea in the season opener, he’s failed to score since but bearing in mind his nine attempts inside the box have been bettered only by Sterling and Chadli, he’s certainly shown enough to suggest he shouldn’t be written off.