Fantasy Premier League – Player List Analysis – Goalkeepers

Just over twenty-four hours after the opening of the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game, we kick-off our analysis of the player list. Over the next ten days we’ll be putting each position under the microscope, providing individual guides for each price bracket. However, we begin our assessment between the posts, running the rule over the candidates for our two goalkeeping positions at the various price points.

Before we delve into the list, it’s worth noting a new change to the Bonus Point System (BPS) allocation that favours this season’s stoppers. As discussed in yesterday’s article, keepers now receive two BPS points for every save made – last season they collected just one.

With that in mind, when assessing our keepers, it’s clear that those who are likely to make plenty of saves now have an improved chance of collecting bonus points.

The Budget Bracket

As expected, there are no starters in the 4.0 price bracket once again this year, though there are a number of options available at 4.5 to consider.

With Shay Given released over the summer and now at the Britannia, Brad Guzan will set you back just 4.5 after Villa conceded 57 times last term – the third worst defence in the top-flight. If either Philippe Senderos and Nathan Baker (4.0 apiece) can nail down a regular role in the heart of the back-four, they’d certainly be the more budget-friendly option.

The Villa/West Brom rotation gives us some kind fixtures over the first 11 (bou, wat, cpl, SUN, lei, WBA, EVE, STO, SUN, nor, LEI), with the Baggies’ Boaz Myhill also priced at 4.5. Given that Ben Foster (5.0) is due back in October, though, Myhill looks a short-term option for Fantasy managers looking for a way into a defence that racked up 16 shut-outs last time around. Myhill made a save every 17.7 minutes once installed in the Baggies goal – faster than any other keeper other than United’s Victor Valdes (who played just 120 minutes)

Julian Speroni also offers a 4.5 price tag, although Palace have failed to convince defensively under Alan Pardew, with just two clean sheets in 18 league matches. Furthermore, the Argentine picked up save points in just eight of 16 appearances with Pardew at the helm and the Eagles’ real lack of resilience suggests they may struggle to garner our attention.

Leicester’s Kasper Schmeichel remains in the budget bracket after the Foxes shipped 55 goals last time out. The Dane earned 19 save points in 24 appearances over 2014/15 and could be one of the main beneficiaries of the BPS changes but with the Foxes on the lookout for a new manager, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding their prospects. With the likes of Robert Huth and Wes Morgan coming in at the same price and offering a sizeable goal threat, though, Leicester offer some strong alternatives in the 4.5 range.

Tim Krul keeps his 4.5 starting price after Newcastle conceded 63 goals in 2014/15 – only QPR shipped more. Although Krul produced just 99 points last season, he missed eight matches for the Tyneside team – tellingly, they failed to register a single clean sheet without him on board. With new manager Steve McClaren in charge, Krul could be a real option for those who feel Daryl Janmaat’s 5.0 price tag is too lofty.

All three promoted clubs hand us keepers with a 4.5 price tag. Certainly, save points look on the cards here, though whilst John Ruddy’s spot as Norwich’s main keeper is undisputed, there remains some uncertainty over the Bournemouth and Watford custodians.

Cherries duo Artur Boruc and Adam Federici will battle it out for a starting berth after signing permanent deals over the summer. Boruc played 37 times after arriving on loan from Southampton last term, though Federici offers competition between the posts and also has top-flight experience. The Cherries racked up 19 clean sheets in the Championship last season, with full-backs Simon Francis and Tyrone Mings also offering options at 4.5. Francis produced more key passes (76) than any defender in the Championship last season and served up a goal and six assists.

It’s a similar situation at Watford. Heurelho Gomes was the Hornets’ regular stopper last term but the recent arrival of Giedrius Arlauskis could place question marks over his pitch time. Watford rotate home/away with Bournemouth over the 38 Gameweeks but many may opt for their defenders unless we get some clarification over the summer friendlies. The two sides do start with a nice opening set of matches (AVL, WBA, SOT, LEIC, SWA, SUN, SPL, WAT) over the first eight rounds of fixtures.

The Mid-Price Options

Everton’s Tim Howard drops from 5.5 to 5.0 after serving up a mere 84 points last time out. The Toffees produced a total of ten clean sheets – significantly down from 15 in 2013/14, when Howard was the top-scoring keeper in the FPL. In addition, despite struggling for clean sheets, Howard mustered a save every 45.5 minutes – slower than any other first choice keeper on show. However, with no European distractions this term, an upturn in resilience and therefore shut-out returns is expected. Howard is the most budget-friendly Everton defensive option but bearing in mind he faces all of last year’s top eight in the opening ten Gameweeks, returns could initially be hard to come by.

Somewhat surprisingly, Simon Mignolet also slips in price despite racking up 14 clean sheets in the previous campaign. The Liverpool number one finished just two points off the keepers’ summit and, at 5.0, is kinder on the budget than the likes of Martin Skrtel and new boy Nathaniel Clyne, who come in at 5.5 apiece. The Reds managed eight clean sheets on their travels last term, joint-top with West Brom, and proved relatively reliable at the back on their travels.

Despite finishing the season with the second most resilient defence, Southampton’s players remain fairly friendly on the pocket. Whilst there are costlier options in the back-four, new keeper Maarten Stekelenburg is available for 5.0 and faces just three of last season’s top eight in the opening 12 Gameweeks. Fraser Forster is similarly priced but faces further months on the sidelines with knee ligament damage – potentially, until Christmas. It should also be noted that Southampton’s robust defence protected Forster so effectively, he was able to make just 61 saves, registering a stop every 45.4 minutes – only Howard ranked lower.

Hugo Lloris also drops in price to 5.0 after Spurs managed just nine clean sheets last season. The Frenchman averaged 3.5 points per appearance last term, just behind Danny Rose’s 3.7, though the left-back demands a higher price at 5.5. If new boy Toby Alderweireld (5.0) nails down a starting berth as expected, he could be another option at the Lane, though if Lloris’ mooted move away from Tottenham comes to fruition, Michel Vorm could present a cut-price gem at just 4.5.

Stoke’s Asmir Begovic managed a mere seven shut-outs and 106 points in 35 appearances last season, yet remains at 5.0. Mark Hughes’ side also registered a couple of shut-outs without the Bosnian in goal, though, and if Begovic leaves, they’d offer Jack Butland as the new number one at just 4.5. Given that five Stoke defenders come in at just 4.5, there could be plenty of alternatives at the Britannia once we have more clarity on Hughes’ likely first choice rearguard.

Costel Pantilimon averaged 4.4 points per appearance last term – the highest of any regular keeper in 2014/15. It’s no surprise to see the Sunderland stopper move up to 5.0 this season, then, though he may well still prove worth the outlay. Thanks to his save-point potential, the big Romanian produced at least three points in 21 of his 28 appearances and the new BPS ruling will only strengthen his appeal. Pantilimon made a save every 23.7 minutes, more frequently than any other first choice keeper on offer in this season’s player list.

Nonetheless, given that every Sunderland defender aside from Patrick van Aanholt is cheaper, some would-be suitors may think twice. Although Sunderland rotate home/away with Newcastle over the season, Pantilimon, for some, looks the ideal “fire and forget” option, allowing us to play him regardless of fixture – a fact backed up by Sunderland’s clean sheet record in 2014/15, which saw them earn more shut-outs on their travels (seven) than at home (six).

The top-scoring keeper in last year’s FPL game, Lukasz Fabianski remains at 5.0. Given that the rest of Swansea’s likely back-four also come in at the same price, the Pole is arguably the best option here – he finished 33 points clear of any Swans defender and his average of 4.1 points per appearance was bettered only by Gylfi Sigurdsson for Garry Monk’s men. Furthermore, the Welsh side boast one of the few defences to prove just as reliable on their travels as at home – seven of last season’s 13 shut-outs arrived away from the Liberty. Fabianksi made a save every 24.9 minutes, second only to Pantilimon amongst the first choice keepers on show.

West Ham’s Adrian outscored his left-back Aaron Cresswell by 142 points to 129, yet comes in cheaper at 5.0 to 5.5. With Slaven Bilic at the helm, the Hammers will be looking to improve upon a poor defensive record on the road – they managed just two clean sheets away from home, compared to seven at Upton Park. Bilic’s side rotate home/away with Newcastle for 34 Gameweeks, offering you a rotation pairing with Krul for 9.5. Adrian recorded 129 saves last term, second only to Fabianski amongst those keepers that remain in the top flight. He also saved three spot-kicks, more than any other stopper.

The Premium Bracket

With the new BPS changes likely to favour the cheaper keepers from teams who concede plenty of shots on target, it’s maybe no real surprise that 5.5 is now the maximum outlay for a goalkeeper.

Arsenal new boy Petr Cech comes in cheaper than Laurent Koscielny (6.0), though every other Gunners regular is also 5.5. Koscielny’s average of 4.4 points per appearance last term was bettered by only three team-mates, however, and if Cech’s arrival improves last term’s haul of 13 clean sheets, the Frenchman’s eye for goal could justify the extra outlay.

Thibaut Courtois sets you back 5.5 as a route into a Chelsea defence with 17 clean sheets to their name last term. That’s significantly less than John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic (7.0 apiece) and may sway some, given the Blues’ fixture-proof defence.

The Belgian averaged 3.8 points per appearance in 2014/15 compared to his above-mentioned team-mates’ 4.7. However, we should not underestimate the attacking threat on offer from the Chelsea defenders. In addition, Courtois is unlikely to benefit from the tweak in the BPS make-up – he made just 75 saves from 32 starts last term, a save every 39.7 minutes – only Howard and Forster made fewer saves per minute amongst first choice options.

Joe Hart easily outscored any City defensive team-mate last term. The stopper earned 142 points, compared to the top-scoring defender Gael Clichy’s 106 points, though there’s no doubt the Etihad side aren’t quite as resilient under Manuel Pellegrini – Hart has earned 27 clean sheets in the Chilean’s two seasons at the helm compared to 35 in Roberto Mancini’s final two years and is unlikely to win over many managers.

United’s David de Gea is the final 5.5 keeper, on the back of 138 points in 2014/15, though it remains to be seen whether he’ll still be at Old Trafford by the time the transfer window shuts. At present, it seems unlikely we’ll be afforded any United defenders at 5.0, though if De Gea does leave, Victor Valdes could be a real value option at just 5.0, providing Louis van Gaal resists the temptation to shop for a new number one.

We will revisit all these options ahead of Gameweek One when we compile our Goalkeepers Watchlist selection, offering a view on our initial squad recommendations.