The Scout Squad – Gameweek 3

We kick off the day by looking ahead, via our Gameweek 3 Scout Squad article.

This has been given a new spin for the 2016/17 campaign, to offer you a greater insight into the decision making process behind each Friday’s Scout Picks selection.

Each midweek Mark, Paul and myself will list the 18 players we think have the best chance of success across the four positions, listing them in rank order. This article will then highlight some of the likely discussions and disagreements that will take place behind the scenes as the Scouts look to back their players and secure a place for them in the Scout Picks and our Spot the Differential articles.

Finally, we will also reveal the Community Champion, who has been selected by our lottery, to represent the community and be in with a chance of winning a £100 Amazon voucher.

Goalkeepers

Despite conceding at home to Everton in Gameweek 2, Ben Foster (4.6) is still being backed by all three of us heading into the weekend. However, with the 12.6% owned West Brom stopper at third place in mine and Paul’s selection, confidence in the Tony Pulis side’s ability to keep clean sheets at home is clearly waning.

Last season Tony Pulis’ outfit managed to register just five shut-outs at the Hawthorns. Nevertheless Mark is undeterred and rates Foster as this week’s best goalkeeper with his home encounter with Middlesbrough.

All three of us back clean sheet returns for Leicester’s Kasper Schmeichel (5.0) but for Paul, Chelsea stopper Thibaut Courtois (5.5) has the edge over Everton’s Maarten Stekelenburg (5.0), selected by myself and Mark.

“Middlesbrough are the kind of opponent that seem ideal for Foster. They do have threat but I think most of it will come from range which should prove comfortable for the Baggies stopper. I see a first home shut-out with one or two save points thrown in.” – Mark

Defenders

The prospects of clean sheets at Southampton, Chelsea and Leicester dominate our thinking regarding defenders, with the 12% owned Virgil Van Dijk (5.5) and Cesar Azpilicueta (6.0), who is in 13.2% of FPL managers’ teams, earning three picks, while Christian Fuchs (5.5) registers two, from Mark and Paul.

Areas of disagreement could centre around whether Manchester United, Arsenal and Crystal Palace can earn shut-outs against Hull, Watford and Bournemouth respectively.

Both Paul and Mark favour Scott Dann (5.0) against the Cherries, with his goal scoring record of last season fresh in their minds. He registered five strikes last term but I’m put off by this season’s events which have seen Dann muster just a single, off target, goal attempt in the league; Palace are also the fourth worst team for conceding shots in the box after two matches.

While Paul and I fancy Arsenal’s chances of a clean sheet against Watford, Mark remains unconvinced and has no Gunners defenders in his selection.

Hector Bellerin (6.5) may be expensive but his maximum bonus points against Leicester last weekend and assured starting role make him the standout pick within the Arsenal rearguard. With 27.6% ownership Bellerin is the second most popular defender in FPL.

“Arsenal’s trip to Watford looks promising for the Gunners attack but with so much uncertainty surrounding their starting line-up, I can only back Hector Bellerin with any real certainty. The Hornets have managed just four shots in the box so far” – Paul

Meanwhile, Mark and I will be looking to persuade Paul to pick Manchester United’s Antonio Valencia (5.5), who we think has a chance of delivering returns at both ends of the pitch when he visits Hull. However, with Hull notching two wins out of two and Luke Shaw proving the more dominant with Paul Pogba in the side against Southampton last Friday, Paul may be right to turn his back.

I appear to be the only one supporting Ashley Williams’ chances of starting and delivering returns for Everton when Stoke visit Goodison Park. Given his ability to accrue bonus points while at Swansea, due to strong Clearances, Blocks and Interception (CBI) statistics, I’m backing him to earn his debut and make an immediate impact for Ronald Koeman’s men.

“I’ve got to go with Scott Dann this week. He notched in the League Cup to remind us of his prowess at set-pieces and I just don’t see Bournemouth providing more than a threat from range.” – Mark

Midfielders

All three of us back returns from the 23.3% owned Eden Hazard (10.1) this week, when Burnley visit Stamford Bridge. For Paul and myself, Burnley’s impressive tally of just one goal conceded masks a frail backline that has allowed more shots than any other side so far.

“Burnley were more than a little fortunate to beat Liverpool and the Clarets right flank look a real weak point, bringing Eden Hazard into contention as my first-choice midfielder” – Paul

Riyad Mahrez is another popular pick for Mark and Paul, but I remain unconvinced, with Leicester looking a far poorer team without the departed N’Golo Kante controlling midfield. Sadly, I’m anticipating fighting a losing battle to see him discarded from the Scout Picks, particularly as his goal attempt average is actually up on his last campaign.

Further down the price spectrum we all agree that Andros Townsend could represent great value at 6.5. Currently the Crystal Palace winger is joint second among midfielders in terms of goal attempts and is owned by only 5.8% of FPL managers.

“Palace will surely end their goal drought at home to Bournemouth. It’s debatable whether Christian Benteke will last from start to finish but Andros Townsend has some solid underlying numbers that should soon translate to points.” – Paul

Dusan Tadic (7.4) is another midfielder boasting strong underlying numbers. He is being backed by Paul and myself and, along with Adam Lallana, also joins Townsend as the joint second most prolific shooter from midfield. However, Mark favours the far friendlier price tag of Nathan Redmond (6.1).

Although the former Norwich man’s attacking statistics are not as impressive as Tadic’s, he does beat his team-mate in one crucial regard, having scored a goal already this season, at home to Watford in Gameweek 1. Redmond is also the most popular among FPL managers with an ownership of 11.4%, compared to Tadic’s 4.5%.

“Again, folk appear to be giving up on Mahrez. The numbers are encouraging and the Swansea clash is, in my view, the first opportunity for the Algerian to cut loose. I think he’ll deliver – it’s just too early to be giving up on a player of his quality.” – Mark

Surprisingly, it’s me who provides the maverick midfield punt this week, in the form of Manchester City’s Raheem Sterling.

I’ve been convinced by analysis from community members such as MesQueUnClub that the England winger has vastly improved under the tutelage of Pep Guardiola. An assist in each of his two league games so far suggests his 3.7% ownership could be set to grow, with more returns are on the cards when West Ham pay visit the Etihad on Sunday.

Forwards

My selection of Tottenham’s Vincent Janssen (8.0) has already prompted howls of derision from Mark and Paul.

I’ll be trying to persuade them using key statistics, like the fact that he tops Spurs’ ranks for big chances, shots in the box and shots on target against Crystal Palace in Gameweek 2.

Whether Liverpool can keep the Dutchman at bay will depend on another statistical battle. While Paul points to Jurgen Klopp’s side having the joint best record in terms of shots conceded this term, I’m more focused on their five goals conceded, placing them joint worst along with Stoke.

Everton’s Romelu Lukaku (9.0) is another potential maverick selection.

Despite averaging 15 goals a season over the last four campaigns, transfer speculation and a lack of match fitness has conspired to ensure he has only played 53 minutes so far, with an FPL ownership of just 6.2%.

Mark and I saw enough in his cameo against West Brom in Gameweek 2 to be convinced that he’ll start and score against Stoke. Paul, however, remains unmoved by his potential.

“I like Lukaku as an option but it’s too early for him and Barkley gives us that cover of the Stoke encounter. For me, it will be Rondon who breaks out this week. He was somewhat subdued by Everton but I see Middlesbrough struggling to cope with his physicality.” – Mark

Unlike the 224,935 FPL managers that have jettisoned Jamie Vardy, Paul is retaining faith in the Leicester striker to prove that, like Mahrez, he is worthy of his price hike this season. Already his price has dipped 0.1 to 9.9, with further drops on the cards should the 19.9% owned striker once again fail to deliver when Swansea visit this weekend.

With two picks, from Mark and myself, West Brom’s Salomon Rondon (6.5) currently has the nod over Paul’s selection of Middlesbrough’s Alvaro Negredo (6.7) as the go-to striker for those on a budget; the two go head-to-head at the Hawthorns this weekend.

Having already notched 22 points this season, Sergio Aguero (13.1) and Manchester United’s Zlatan Ibrahmovic (11.7) are joint top of the FPL rankings and seem destined to be mainstays of the Scout Picks for many weeks to come.

Unsurprisingly the duo, who are the most owned in FPL, are our top two striker picks this week, with the Manchester City man having the slight edge, with a home clash against West Ham.

Community Champion

Representing the Community against the Scout Picks in Gameweek 3 will be Jac the Cat, who is now competing in his eighth FPL season, with last year’s impressive finish of 98^th his best to date.

Gameweek 2’s champion Moin was defeated by the Scouts 59 to 54.

The community champion who has the best lead over the Scouts during 2016/17 will win a £100 Amazon voucher (currently we can only offer Amazon.co.uk or Amazon.com vouchers).