Fantasy Premier League – The Final Day

The Fantasy Premier League title race – unlike the real thing – is going to the wire.

The top two are separated by just a pair of points heading in to Sunday’s final round of fixtures after both managers put in barnstorming Gameweek 37 performances to distance themselves from the chasing pack.

Third-placed boss Roope Liimatainen is some 33 points back and with a sufficiently similar line-up to the leaders to suggest his race is run. Spare a thought also for Conor Barwise – he’s a point behind in fourth and having to juggle his Fantasy commitments three days into a family holiday in Italy.

The pair will need to radically alter their teams, with the inevitable hits that entails, and go big on differentials if they are to have any hope of glory now.

Sixth-placed Mervyn Glasgow is in the same boat, but has to get a mention here as he’s currently top of the Fantasy Football Scout league. And just four points behind him comes our leading site member, Billy Ketsu, so there’s plenty to play for there on the final day. Top work, gentlemen.

We’ll have a look at the prospects for the FPL Cup final later, but for now, it’s time for the Big Show.

The Tale Of The Tape

Uwais Ahmed (Fahad’s XI) v Ben Crabtree (FC Crab Dogg)

The crash bang wallop end to Gameweek 37 propelled Uwais Ahmed from third to first thanks to his captaincy of four-goal drama-machine Harry Kane. Previous leader Ben Crabtree also had the Spurs striker, but saw his double-figure lead at the top eradicated in one fell Kane-shaped swoop courtesy of Uwais’ gutsy armband call.

Uwais – best finish 5,768 in 2011/12. Playing since 2008. Arsenal fan.
He was in the top ten this year from GW22, slipping out to 12th in GW24 and then leading the pack for all but two weeks from GW29.

Ben – best finish 353rd in 2011/12 and also managed 1,369th the season before that. Playing since 2009. Everton fan.
Top ten (straight in at four from 12th) in GW28. Has never led by the completion of a Gameweek – highest has been his current second position.

Performance (benched in brackets, Uwais first)

Highest score: 187 v 190, both GW37 (obviously)
Lowest: 35, GW8 v 33, GW 9

Goals: 123 (3) v 136 (4)
Assists: 92 (7) v 75 (4)
Clean sheets: 60 (9) v 59 (10)
Own goals: 1 (2) v none
Red cards: 2 (0) v 1 (0)
Yellow cards: 49 (14) v 45 (16)

Uwais’ players have provided him with 78 double-figure hauls, and only once has he left such riches on the bench, while Ben enjoyed double bubble 77 times, but felt a little bit of self-loathing on three chastening occasions.

Chips Were Not Everything

Both bosses played their first Wildcard in Gameweek 6 and their Triple Captain in Gameweek 27 – a popular, if ultimately underwhelming, punt on Sergio Aguero that brought in 27 points.

Ben went for the classic move of a second Wildcard in Gameweek 36 to maximise returns from a Bench-Boosted Gameweek 37. Uwais blinked a little earlier, Wildcarding in Gameweek 34, before Bench Boosting in Gameweek 37 with equally strong results.

Things weren’t always so good for Uwais, however. The week after playing that second Wildcard, he left 28 points on the bench when scoring 57. Then again, that was good enough to regain the overall lead, although should he falter on Sunday, all those points sat idle in Gameweek 35 will surely not go unnoticed in his post-mortem mind.

The runt of the chip litter, All Out Attack, was used by Ben in the same Gameweek, 35, that Uwais was having his bench-waste moment. Ben’s AOA brought him 55 points and a couple of regrets – he went with Leighton Baines for a point, while leaving Marcos Alonso on the bench with six, and a 41-minute yellow card cameo from Raheem Sterling compounded his frustration.

Uwais is yet to use his AOA and, for reasons explained later, probably won’t.

Oh Captain, My Captain

Uwais’ most popular captaincy choice has been Alexis Sanchez, who he’s trusted with the armband on ten occasions, enjoying a superb 19.4 points per Gameweek average. Ben’s favourite skipper was also given ten outings, Sergio Aguero providing him with a 15.7 average score.

Sanchez was Ben’s captain seven times, which brought him in an excellent 21.1 points per Gameweek, and the five occasions Kane was handed the honour, the Spurs man delivered 15.6 points.

Uwais only captained Kane three times, but to devastating effect – 96 points at an average of 32 points a time, including what could prove to be the decisive Gameweek 37 decision.

Overall, Uwais netted 679 captaincy points, which made up 27.5% of his total, while Ben went further, securing 721 points, or 29.23% of his total score.

Players Loved, Subbed And Snubbed

Uwais does like a good defender – his three most popular players for the season have been Gareth McAuley (28 appearances), Kyle Walker and Seamus Coleman. Three others also managed 20 or more outings – Alexis Sanchez, Marcos Alonso and, a touch surprisingly, Roberto Firmino.

Ben went for Sanchez and Romelu Lukaku (22 apiece) and Ben Foster (20) as his only three players in the 20+ club. His most productive asset has been Petr Cech, played across the two most recent double Gameweeks for a 12.5 points per Gameweek average. Sanchez has averaged 12.1 for him, Lukaku 11.4.

For Uwais, Sanchez averaged 13.1 points per Gameweek thanks to those 10 times as his captain.

While Uwais lavished loyalty on his backline, he demonstrated a real knack for maximising striker returns – he only played Harry Kane five times but accrued a whopping 102 points at a PPGW average of 20.4. He also used Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Jamie Vardy just twice, gaining 35 and 23 points from them respectively, and drafted in Gabriel Jesus for the first time in Gameweek 37 to garner 19 points.

His most popular side has been Manchester City (eight players), followed by Spurs (6) and Liverpool (5). He has only used four Chelsea players and just three from his beloved Arsenal, although the Gunners’ trio gave him a 12.3 PPGW average thanks, again, to Sanchez’s captaincy production.

Uwais used at least one player from every team.

Ben, as an Everton fan, seemed to laugh in the face of the Fantasy edict that ‘thou shalt not let club allegiances cloud thy thinking’. He picked seven Evertonians and seven from Man City throughout the season, while completely snubbing Liverpool assets and, for reasons perhaps more to do with form and price, those from Leicester City.

Arsenal (6) and, perhaps surprisingly, Manchester United (5) were also popular places for his picks. He only used three Chelsea players all season – Alonso (19 appearances), Hazard (9 for a disappointing 4.7-point average) and Diego Costa (6).

The breakdown of their players’ performance by position shows why the overall race is too close to call.

Uwais’ goalkeepers have earned him an average 3.7 points, Ben’s 5. In defence, all that loyalty paid off for Uwais, winning the battle 4.9 to 4.19, while in midfield it was nip and tuck, Uwais edging it 5.46 to 5.3. Up front Ben won through 6.25 to 5.89.

Transfers, however, might explain why Uwais heads into the final day with a slight advantage.

Ben has made 40 transfers and taken 32 points in hits. His rival’s figures are 38 and just 16 points subtracted, with immediate points made from transfers also in Uwais’ favour – 427 to 403.

This could actually prove vital – if the title race is tied, Uwais looks set to claim crown by virture of making fewer transfers.

Following on from that Gameweek 35 bench debacle, Uwais has had to taste defeat in the spawny sub department as well, with Ben gaining 25 points from auto subs to the leader’s 15.

Formation-wise, the pair have trodden different paths.

Uwais most used 3-5-2, which he did 13 times for an average of 61.4 points. Ben favoured 3-4-3 – a lot. He employed it 28 times for a 63.2 average.

Our leader was least likely to switch to a 4-5-1, although the two times he did gave him a very pleasing 83.5 average. His rival only once employed 4-4-2, netting him 72 points.

And Now, The End Is Near…

And so they face the final curtain, needing to make a decision (or more) that could help change their life forever, while also winning them a couple of all-expenses-paid trips and an FPL mug, among many other prizes.

Ahead of final Gameweek transfers, Uwais and Ben share the following players:

Defenders: Alonso and Stephens
Midfielders: King, Sanchez and Sane
Forwards: Jesus, Kane and Gameweek 37 troll Anichebe.

At least neither succumbed to the charms of ubertroll Gabbiadini, which is one of many reasons why they are where they are, and we are not.

The pair also have two other Spurs players each. Uwais is on Jan Vertonghen and Dele Alli, while Ben has his namesake Davies and Christian Eriksen – how costly the Dane’s Thursday night bench warming proves to be will soon be known.

In fact, Thursday was all about Uwais. His captaincy of Kane, and Eriksen’s no-show, helped him retain top spot at the end of the Gameweek. Ben, meanwhile, at least offset some of the pain with an assist from Davies.

So, will Uwais use his AOA chip?

He seems slightly more conservative in his management, based on the number of transfer hits taken, and has three strong and expensive defender options – Nacho Monreal, Vertonghen and Alonso – already in his squad. He also has Jack Stephens, who looks a good bet for a clean sheet at home to Stoke City, and Palace keeper Wayne Hennessey, who travels to face an Old Trafford Kindergarten Select, so he could well view a defensive approach as the fruitful one.

Add in the Anichebe conundrum – he’s injured and of sufficiently low value as to be irreplaceable without taking transfer hits to conjure up some cash – and the All Out Attack option holds little to no appeal for Uwais.

Ben has one key factor in his favour – he has two free transfers.

He must firstly decide what to do with Eden Hazard. His rival has no such issue – he has Cesc Fabregas already in place. However, with the standard head-to-head second-guessing game now ramped up to unfeasibly important levels, Ben’s dealings with Hazard – and whether Uwais attempts to counter them – could well make all the difference.

Many managers are looking to Philippe Coutinho as the replacement for Hazard. Does Ben follow suit? And will Uwais blink and try to cover that? If so, who will he sacrifice? Both have Leroy Sane, so he remains a buffer, ditto Josh King and Sanchez, and it would take a brave man to drop any of that trio anyway.

That leaves Dele Alli as the most likely midfielder to be jettisoned by the leader.

He’s only managed a goal and two assists over the last six matches and could conceivably be dropped to the bench or, more likely, be deployed in a deeper role by Mauricio Pochettino for the trip to Hull City. If it can happen to Eriksen…

As for Ben, that extra transfer could prove as much a curse as a blessing, providing him with so many options and, therefore, so much more agonising.

If he wishes to revert to his beloved 3-4-3, he’ll have to make a big profit from Hazard to raise sufficient funds to bring in a striker of any note which, in turn, could mean he’ll have to leave King on the bench – a risky strategy for a player in such consistent scoring form.

Midfielder Kevin De Bruyne is another possibility, but that would require a certain amount of re-shuffling as he already has three Man City players in his ranks. Willy Caballero would be the obvious fall guy in this scenario, but would you really want to be reduced to nurdling keepers for the biggest Fantasy Gameweek of your life?

Ben is, perhaps, more likely to look for some cover from a Liverpool defence hosting a shot-shy Middlesbrough. Joel Matip is the prime candidate, with one of his two Southampton defenders making way. But to do so requires Ben to break his season-long habit of not buying Liverpool players – something he’ll also have to do should he opt for Coutinho.

Up top, both will surely retain the services of Kane and Jesus, with the injured Anichebe a dusty footnote left to rot on the bench due to his bargain bucket value – even with Ben’s 0.5 in the bank, 4.8 is unlikely to get you looking much past Ashley Barnes or Peter Crouch, and even they conjure up little but indifference.

Cue a final-day rampage from Yaya Sanogo (4.6) and his 5,945 (yes, really that many) owners?

So the transfer battle looks like being won and lost in midfield and, maybe, defence.

However it all pans out, it’s going to be a thrilling final day of the FPL season. But I’m not sure I’d want to have to go through the agonies of what-ifs and I-could-dos that this pair of brilliant Fantasy managers are currently experiencing.

The Magic Of The Cup

Running alongside the title chase will be the FPL Cup, which has thrown up an intriguing final.

The favourite has to be the 151-placed Nepalese manager Bibek Thapa, who will take on the 70,299-ranked Polish boss Peter B.

Bibek has spent the season putting forward a strong case for transfer hits – he’s made 64 trades over the campaign, taking a whopping 120 points in penalties, and yet still finds himself at the business end of the league table.

But it is his opponent who probably needs to do more in the transfer market to win the final. Unlike Bibek, he doesn’t own Kane and almost certainly needs to if he is to prevail.

Peter does, however, still have his All Out Attack chip to deploy.

The smart money is on a victory for Nepal. But on the final day of the season, anything can happen.

And it probably will.

* This article was compiled with help from the brilliant tools available on FPL Statistico and The Gargatron.