FPL Player List Analysis – Premium Forwards

After checking out the goalkeepers, budget defenders, mid-price defenders, premium defenders, budget midfielders, mid-price midfielders,
premium midfielders, budget forwards and mid-price forwards, our assessment of the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) player list concludes with analysis of the premium forwards.

Winner of back-to-back Golden Boot awards, Tottenham Hotspur’s Harry Kane merits his place as the most expensive option for our 15-man squads.

As evidenced by his output in the previous campaign, the Spurs frontman is arguably now the most reliable points scorer available.

The only player to score at least 10 times both home and away, Kane’s average of 7.5 points per match (ppm) was more than any other player in 2016/17.

He’s scored 21, 25 and 29 goals in the last three seasons since establishing himself as the lone forward for the London outfit and also offers spot-kicks as another string to his bow.

Although team-mates Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli, at 9.5 apiece, may well emerge at the top of the midfield pecking order, Kane’s captaincy credentials seal the deal for us.

Rivals will emerge once the season is underway but, before a ball is kicked, Kane is unquestionably the most assured captain selection.

A summer move to Manchester United has persuaded over 48% of FPL managers to acquire Romelu Lukaku (11.5), making him the most popular player in the game.

The target man has scored three times over the summer, including a consolation in last night’s loss to Real Madrid, to strengthen the notion that he can kick on from last season’s 25 goals for Everton.

Certainly, that huge ownership, allied with United’s kind opening schedule – they avoid all of last term’s top six in the first six Gameweeks – means that overlooking Lukaku could prove costly to our overall ranks.

A conversion rate of 22.7% in 2016/17 also suggests he’ll add a cutting edge to the Red Devils’ attack, given that Zlatan Ibrahimovic netted just 14/4% as the spearhead of their attack last season.

Yet many will be hoping that one of Paul Pogba and Henrikh Mkhitaryan can make an impact in midfield, given their relatively kind price tags of 8.0 apiece. The latter, in particular, has impressed over pre-season, bagging three goals and as many assists.

Over in the blue half of Manchester, the versatile Gabriel Jesus currently has the edge over Sergio Aguero due to a number of factors.

Arriving at the Etihad Stadium in the winter transfer window, the Brazilian’s average of 6.7 ppm was second only to Kane and bettered Aguero’s 5.6ppm – despite the latter scoring 20 times in his first season under Pep Guardiola.

Jesus was hugely consistent last season. He produced returns in seven of his eight starts, with the only exception against Bournemouth in Gameweek 25, when he was forced off injured on 15 minutes.

At 10.5 to Aguero’s 11.5, he’s also kinder on the budget, and arguably, with his versatility, he looks more immune to rotation than his fellow South American.

Jesus also offers an option out wide if City roll out a 4-2-3-1, should Guardiola continue with his recent 3-4-2-1 set-up and employ the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, David Silva or Bernardo Silva in support roles. Meanwhile, Aguero’s pitch time through the middle could increasingly come into question.

De Bruyne (10.0) could prove a hassle-free alternative if you’re spending big in midfield.

The Belgian started more times than any City player last season on his way to earning 21 assists and has been quick to replicate that form over the summer by serving up four assists. He’s the most popular City attacker by some margin, sitting in 25.8% of squads compared with Jesus’ 13% and Aguero’s 10%.

Arsenal’s big-money signing Alexandre Lacazette (10.5) looks set to claim the lone striker role ahead of Olivier Giroud (8.5) as Arsene Wenger looks for more mobility up front in his new 3-4-2-1 formation.

The new arrival bagged 28 goals for Lyon last season and boasts a strong record of scoring penalties, having netted 11 spot-kicks in all competitions in 2016/17.

There are two main factors that go against him right now, though. It remains to be seen just how quickly that Lacazette can adapt to a new league, while the future of Alexis Sanchez will also clearly have a major bearing on how we view the Gunners’ prospects next time around.

Remain at the Emirates and our money is on the Chilean (despite a loftier valuation of 12.0) to continue as Arsenal’s go-to option after he finished the season as top scoring player in FPL.

Similar to Lacazette, Chelsea’s summer signing Alvaro Morata also finds himself in new surrounds after arriving on the back of 15 La Liga goals for Real Madrid.

Given that Michy Batshuayi started a single league match under Antonio Conte last term, it’s a fair assumption that the Spaniard will take his place on the teamsheet in light of Diego Costa’s imminent departure.

Yet a lack of pre-season minutes suggests he could be eased into contention, as witnessed by his minutes off the bench against Arsenal in Sunday’s Community Shield loss.

Indeed, with Eden Hazard due back from an ankle injury in September, only 8% have considered Morata so far. Priced at 10.5 to the new arrival’s 10.0, there’s every likelihood that Hazard – who should also offer the security of spot-kicks – will continue as our preferred route into the champions’ attack.

A late-season transformation under Craig Shakespeare helped reignite Jamie Vardy’s (8.5) Fantasy appeal. After toiling with Claudio Ranieri at the helm in their title defence, the Foxes’ frontman went on to average seven points per match with the new manager in charge, serving up eight goals and five assists in 13 outings.

Granted, the schedule could be a lot kinder. Clashes with Arsenal, Man United and Chelsea in the first four have kept Vardy under the radar at 4% ownership. If he can maintain momentum and reprise the title-winning heroics of 2015/16, the Foxes striker may yet have a part to play in our seasons.

Re-classified as a forward this time around, Roberto Firmino faces strong competition from a Liverpool midfield that includes Philippe Coutinho, Sadio Mane and Mo Salah.

On the upside, at a cost of 8.5, he’s cheaper than that trio and was the Reds’ number one for both shots inside the box and key passes last time around.

There’s also the hope that Firmino could now also be on penalties for the Merseysiders, a theory based on his recently converted spot-kick against Athletic Bilbao with James Milner on the pitch.

Firmino also boasts some decent summer form, with two goals and three assists over pre-season. Yet there’s no doubt that the Brazilian – who has scored just 10 and 11 goals over the last two seasons – faces a tough task to emerge as the go-to option among Jurgen Klopp’s charges.

The main concern undoubtedly surrounds the allocation of budget. Firmino appears to be a gamble as a second striker option, while selecting him as a third forward would likely severely limit midfield funds.