Members

Tales of the Expected – Lukaku vs Kane

Our next members’ article of the week starts a series of pieces based on our expected goals (xG) data, which is scheduled to be available from Monday.

In this first analysis article, we take time out to assess the two most popular forwards in Fantasy Premier League, Romelu Lukaku and Harry Kane, checking out their numbers both home and away over the first seven Gameweeks.

Both had had somewhat contrasting starts to the season.

Lukaku has settled in seamlessly up front for the Red Devils, scoring in all but one of his seven outings.

Whereas both of his double-digit returns have arrived at Old Trafford, all three of Kane’s were delivered on the road.

The Spurs striker has bagged two goals in each of his last trio of road trips but has yet to find the net at his temporary home, Wembley Stadium.

We take a close look at the data now to get a better idea of how they should be performing in accordance with the expected goals (xG) and expected assist (xA) statistics.

We have also added in our own new metric, expected goal involvement (xGI) to incorporate both goals and assists so far.

If you are new to the notion of expected goals, here’s a of handy explanation from the guys at OptaJoe.

Paul Is certain he won't make the same mistakes next season. Follow them on Twitter

1,541 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Strchld
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    How about this WC looking?
    Pope - Elliot
    Yoshida - Alonso - Otamendi - Davies (Hunemeier)
    Silva - Haz - Sterling - (Richalison TCarrol)
    Vardy - Kane - Joselu
    Cheers!

    1. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Pretty good, I'd definitely have a clear plan about how to get in two of Lukaku/Morate/City striker in the not too distant future though

      1. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        I'd also prefer Cedric to Yoshi. Southampton have a lot of CBs and not many RBs

  2. Chris_White
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Think I'm set - until Pep stirs the pot by saying Agüero 'has a chance' tomorrow...

    Pope
    Davies VVD Dunk
    Eriksen Silva Sterling Richarlison
    Kane Jesus Vardy

    Elliot Jones Wimmer RLC

    1. Jam0sh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Solid

  3. Kingtekkerz
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    What to do with this team?

    Fabianski
    Kola Jones Davies Mee
    Alli Salah Gross
    Kane Luka Firmino
    Bench: Elliot Atsu Carroll Long

    A) Firmino-->Vardy
    B)Alli, Atsu-->Sterling, Fab (-4)
    C)Alli, Firmino-->Vardy, Silva (-4)

    Or any other suggestions?

    Thanks in advance!

    1. ZakAFC_
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      A

    2. Monkey Hanger
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      I'd be tempted to let the transfer roll.

    3. Teddy Brewski
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      A or bank it

    4. Kingtekkerz
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Cheers guys! No one worried of no city cover?

      1. Teddy Brewski
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        That would be a worry but not sure it's worth a hit. Particularly if it involves Alli out with BOU up next

        1. Kingtekkerz
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          Yeah, probably makes sense to take out Alli for Silva after the Bou game

  4. Teddy Brewski
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Play Jones (liv) or Ritchie (sou) ?

    1. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Ritchie

  5. The_Colonel
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Which of these is a better move this week?

    A) Mkhi -> Sterling/Silva
    B) Firmino -> Vardy
    C) Both for -4

    Currently have no City coverage
    Thanks

    1. ZakAFC_
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      C

    2. Lone Wolf
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      A

  6. Jafalad
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    I am in some personal agony here. Finding it difficult to choose the fifth defender. Currently have: Otamendi, Ward, Bavies and Member.

    Who would you pick out of:

    A. Maguire
    B. Cedric
    C. Cresswell

    Best of 23 wins it.

    1. We Will Klopp you
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      A

    2. Chris_White
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Maguire. Most potential of those 15 pointers.

    3. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Cedric x 23

    4. Teddy Brewski
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Maguire for me

    5. B) for me, but I prefer Yoshida.

    6. Pirlø's Pen
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Hazza Mag

    7. Reedy
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Cedric

    8. The_Colonel
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      A

    9. Aston-villain
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Cant play ur member all the time...
      Cedric

    10. Bobby Digital
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      B just cause he rotates with Ward and has a high threat rating

    11. Jafalad
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Cheers lads - it's 5 -5. More agony

  7. estheblessed
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    People seem to be abandoning Lukaku. Liverpool are leaking goals and he is getting good service. I think he'll get at least 2/3 goals in the next 2 games.

    1. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      I was going to but WWKY convinced me not to. Could score against my team this weekend and I want him for Huddersfield.

    2. Jam0sh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Liverpool aren't exactly leaking many goals at home

  8. Boss Hogg
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Looking to sign a City midfielder this week. But which one?

    a. Sterling
    b. Sane
    c. KDB
    d. Silva

    1. Pirlø's Pen
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      CDAB that order

      1. The_Colonel
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        This If money no option

    2. Teddy Brewski
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      D is the logical choice and probably the best overall but A or B could be great short term

    3. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      DACB for me (if money no issue)

      1. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        DCAB*

    4. estheblessed
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Silva for value and minutes. Everything is going through him currently.

    5. A).

    6. We Will Klopp you
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Considering price, I'd rank them DABC

    7. Aston-villain
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Silva, a good balance of value, nailed on-ness and proven returns

      1. FPL Pillars
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        cue him being benched at weekend

  9. slasken
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Best stoke defender for 4.4? Any onther suggestions?

    I am on a wildcard and currently have:
    Davies - Monreal - Otamendi - Mdemba -4.4m

    1. Teddy Brewski
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Wouldn't go near Stoke's defence personally. Duffy or Suttner much better options for 4.4 imo

  10. Aston-villain
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    The template looks set for us WC'ers....
    Anyone care to share a WC team that is not typical????

    1. WC, GW 8:

      Ryan
      Otamendi, Monreal, Duffy
      Eriksen, Coutinho, Silva, Sterling(vc)
      Kane(c), Vardy, Rashford

      Elliot; Stephens, Lascelles, Mbemba … 0, 0.2 ITB, TV: 101.8, SV: 100.9

      1. Hy liverpool
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Looks sexy
        Ward over Duffy ?

        1. Thanks!

          Certainly not. Rotation, rotation, rotation. 😉

          1. Hy liverpool
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 1 month ago

            Burnley rotates well with Newcastle ... Burnley are much stronger than both Newcastle and brighton
            You may play bur defenders vs any team in the league but surely not the same with bur/Newcastle

            Anyways good luck Sir

            1. You will see the rotations below. I yield to no-one in my admiration of Burnley, but they are not stronger than Newcastle. Or Brighton. Yet. 🙂

      2. Chris_White
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        You really doubling up on Brighton defenders when Burnley have similar fixtures?

        1. They don't.

          BRI/NEW: EVE 79 CPL 222 SOU 27 BOU 193 STK 178 WAT 250 CPL 213 LIV -138 LEI 236 EVE 88 BUR 219 WAT 241 - 8 light blues
          BUR/NEW: WHM 60 CPL 222 bur15 BOU 193 SWA 188 WAT 250 wha -47 lei -185 LEI 236 STK 131 bri -219 whm 100 - 5 light blues

        2. Chris_White
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          Even though the BRI/NEW rotation does seem good, I'll give you that

          1. 😀

      3. Aston-villain
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Apart from Rashford its still pretty template. I like it tho.

        1. Template? 343? 🙂

          Cheers!

    2. CFC96
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Eliott
      Fernandez - ward - otamendi - davies
      choupo - eriksen - salah
      lukaku - kane - jesus
      not sure whats template but going all out, cheap bench, allowing room to downgrade players to free up cash when fixtures are more congested and theres more data on the cheaper options

      1. Aston-villain
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Keeping the faith with Spurs i see. Not a bad team, 7/10 for me tho when taking fixtures into account

        1. CFC96
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          I want to have maybe only 2 spurs, but of those 3 I just don't see any I'd want out, they seem like they'll all be at the top of the points at the end of the season

        2. CFC96
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          What's your template team?

    3. Bobby Digital
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Fab Elliot
      Davies Valencia Ward Mee Cedric
      Silva Sterling Choupo Carroll Stephens
      Kane Lukaku Jesus

      Now that you mention it, it is pretty typical. Going 523 this week though probably.

  11. Gaz_b
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Thinking of switching Lukaku to Jesus until GW 12 WC which would allow Dawson to Davies, or Alli to Eriksen/Hazard?

    Crazy?

    1. sentz05
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Spurs have hard fixtures. People are overlooking that.

      1. Aston-villain
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        This

      2. Homer21
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Agree, other than kane I'm staying away from spurs assets in short term

  12. Lone Wolf
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Play two

    a) Ward
    b) Jones
    c) Mbemba
    d) Choupo

    1. Reedy
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      A and probably B

    2. Monkey Hanger
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      First two.

    3. Hy liverpool
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Ad

  13. CFC96
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    On wc, going heavy with kane, lukaku, jesus, eriksen and salah, bench doesnt look good but I can easily downgrade a big hitter when fixtures get congested, which is why im not going without lukaku as getting him back for newcastle are hits waiting to happen

    1. Aston-villain
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Show us the rest of the team...i could do with cheering up

      1. CFC96
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Eliott
        Fernandez - ward - otamendi - Davies
        Choupo - Eriksen - salah
        Lukaku - kane - Jesus
        Lol, Improved from my team before which was doing alright but was very lucky

        1. CFC96
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          Still very tempted to downgrade Jesus to vardy and then improve my back line and cover

  14. Pigsinblankets
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Looking to fund Kola to Azpi with:

    A) De Gea to Pope/Schmeichel
    B) Bertrand to Maguire

    1. Pigsinblankets
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Or C) Ritchie to Choupo

      1. Hy liverpool
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        C

    2. HamezMace
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      B

    3. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      C

  15. ForEvra Young
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Morata & Mkhi to...

    A) Jesus & Sterling

    B) Vardy & Stering & 2.1 itb

    1. Teddy Brewski
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      B but with Silva over Sterling

  16. estheblessed
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    I'm pretty much settled on this WC. My only concern is no Chelsea!

    Fabianski // Elliot
    Cedric, Simpson, Ward, Davies // Mbemba
    Eriksen, Silva, Sterling // Surman, Carrol
    Vardy, Kane(c), Lukaku

    1. Teddy Brewski
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      You ok having to start Ward & Simpson every week?

    2. Blame it on Traore
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      It looks a bit underpowered to me in midfield and defence. Personally I would downgrade Eriksen perhaps so that you can upgrade Surman. Either that or upgrade Cedric. Eriksen on balance, I think.

  17. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Rose looked sharp in training.

    Good time to be back with the heavy congestion this month.

    1. FPL Kangaroo
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      He looked pretty fat to me.
      Needs to play few u23 matches first.

      1. Teddy Brewski
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        He could get away with being fat in champions league I reckon. Just play him in that Poch!

      2. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Big bones.

  18. kysersosa
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Managers RMT please

    Bavies, Luiz, Maguire (Ward, Mbemba)
    Fabregas, Silva, Sterling, Richarlison, (Carroll)
    Vardy, Jesus, Kane

    1.2m ITB - for easy switch to Aguero/Morata

    Thanks

  19. Pariße
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Thoughts on Sterling as a pick with Agüero's magical return?

    1. Chris_White
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      I'm considering just sticking with him, at least for a little while. When he plays, he scores points. Even from the bench. Just have to find make sure I have a decent bench to cover his no-shows.

    2. kysersosa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Unlikely Aguero will be back this week

      1. Reedy
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        If he is it's a miracle (meaning Jesus has shot himself in the foot a bit)

        1. kysersosa
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          Hahaha

  20. Chasing Waves
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Thoughts on Mkhi playing time?

    A - 60-70

    B - 70-80

    C- 80 onwards

    I'm keeping him then shipping after Huddersfield. Thanks.

    1. Chasing Waves
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Minutes for Liverpool game I mean, thanks.

  21. Scotty B
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Fabianski
    Bellerin Cedric Jones Alonso
    Salah Eriksen Ritchie
    Morata Kane Rooney

    Elliot Shaqiri Carroll Tuanzabe

    Which option is better?

    A Jones/Ritchie/Morata > Ward/Sterling/Vardy -8 (exact funds)
    B Morata/Rooney > Jesus/Chicharito -4 (exact funds)

  22. Monkey Hanger
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Not sure on the minutes, but I'm also ditching after Uddersfield.

    1. Monkey Hanger
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Reply fail. Was for Rodney.

  23. Postman Ty
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Mkhi --> D.Silva (-4)
    worth it?

    1. Chris_White
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Considering the next four, I'd say so

    2. F4L
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      I would say so, yes

    3. Blame it on Traore
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      I think so

  24. Chasing Waves
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Anyone got Morata and keeping him? I'm hoping he'll be fit for Watford.

    1. Boxwoods
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Yes. Same.

  25. Aarono23
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Toying with my wildcard a bit and came up with this big hitter draft:

    Elliot/Fab

    Daniels/Jones/Bavies/Ward (Bur)/4m def

    Hazard/Salah/Silva/Cho-Mo/RLC

    Kane/Lukaku/Hemed

    Do the big money players make it too weak elsewhere? May go with Jesus for two weeks with money itb to upgrade to Lukaku.

  26. F4L
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Any important news today? Been out the loop

      1. F4L
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        ohh cheers TM

  27. Flynny
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    How am I doing with this wildcard? Been settled on it for a week but now feeling nervous.....

    Fab elliot
    Luiz bavies jones ward wimmer
    Hazard Silva richarlison rlc Carroll
    Kane jesus vardy

    0.9itb.....thanks

    1. BrockLanders
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Looks good

    2. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Very good and quite similar to my present WC side although I have gone Pope (with Ward)not Fab as rotation better. With .9 in bank I would go Azpilicueta over Luiz who is a is a yellow/red card waiting to happen

      1. Flynny
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers lads....

        Yes - eyeing up Luiz to azpi - but not at all convinced he is worth 0.7m more....

        Cheers

    3. Jafoole_88
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      No lukaku

      1. Flynny
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        He is out for the next few...

        1. Jafoole_88
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          Injured? What's your source Fly?

  28. Lecky Legs FC
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Right busy tomorrow and especially Saturday with the match Vs United so I'm finalizing my squad thoughts and feedback if it's possible GTG?

    Elliot
    Alonso Mee Naughton
    Davis Hazard Silva Salah
    Jesus (VC) Joselu Kane (C)

    Subs: Foster,Jones, Carroll & Hunemeier

    1. Team Bobcat
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      I think I would start jones ahead of Davis. Sgould do well with it. Better than mine

  29. Team Bobcat
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Best budget replacement for Hegazi...

    a) Simpson
    b) Wimmer
    c) Holding
    d) Ward
    e) Mee

    Davies Otamend Naughton Mbemba blank

    Cheers

    1. BrockLanders
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Like Wimmer

  30. BrockLanders
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Evening chaps.

    Should I sell Ake for Bavies -4???

    1. No. Get Otamendi. Or Azpilicueta, if affordable, and you fancy it.