Market Forces – Gameweek 8

With nine of the 20 goals scored in Saturday’s matches arriving the Etihad Stadium, it was once again Manchester City who were responsible for sending waves of Fantasy managers to the market.

Elsewhere, a sterile performance from Spurs and a typical bus-parking masterclass from Manchester United left Crystal Palace and Watford to generate the excitement.

But it was a Gameweek of rather average points returns. That perhaps disappointed the 202,030 who had made Wildcards active unless, of course, they had been used to max out on City assets. Meanwhile, those who missed City’s seven-goal share appear to have wasted little time to scramble to correct matters.

Continuing our series of weekly articles, we at whogottheassist.com are reviewing and commenting on patterns and behaviours in the Fantasy Premier League market, looking at common themes and giving our view on the viability of the transfers taking place.

Another weekend in the City

Pep Guardiola’s evolution of Man City into Barcelona circa 2009 is well underway, with the victory over Stoke City another chilling masterclass that sets the bar for the chasing title contenders.

On the back of another rampant victory – taking their goal tally up to 29 – the market fireworks have exploded in sky blue with City contributing six of the current top eight most popular transfer targets.

Raheem Sterling is leading the way, with over 155,000 transfers in so far.

At only 8.1 it’s difficult to question the value he offers in the midfield. He has already risen in value by 0.1, and it would be no surprise to see a further increase before Friday’s deadline.

Team-mate Gabriel Jesus is currently the second most bought player. Now up to 10.7, he is drawing traffic from Alvaro Morata, Alexandre Lacazette, Romelu Lukaku and Harry Kane and has had over 130,000 transfers in.

But there is some need for caution when considering this pair.

Aguero was fit enough for the bench on Saturday and again in tonights Champions League tie with Napoli. We can only speculate on how he will be integrated back into the starting XI and what it means for Jesus and his minutes, or perhaps even Sterling.

The timing of the Morata to Jesus trades – in particular – can be questioned.

The Spaniard is back for tomorrow night’s Champions League tie with Roma and has the fixtures to kick-start a profitable relationship with Eden Hazard as his number 10.

The aforementioned Aguero is also drawing new owners, despite being unused against Stoke, with 59,000 taking the plunge in a bid to catch the bandwagon early. Morata and Kane are the main fall guys here.

In City’s midfield, David Silva is still gaining plenty of attention as his newfound consistency continues. Only Henrik Mkhitaryan can better Silva’s 1.3 million acquisitions over the season, with the Spaniard claiming 64,000 new owners ahead of Gameweek 9 so far.

Leroy Sane has picked up almost 59,000 transfers in after his 10-point haul, while De Bruyne – who lest we forget was sitting in many a side on Gameweek 1 – is also attracting investors once more, with 52,000+ paying the premium for his services.

Mourinho shuts up shop as other defences falter

Manchester United recorded a seventh clean sheet from eight Gameweeks, this time proving their worth against an attacking Liverpool side, luring more managers to shop for their resilient defence.

The option who is attracting the most attraction is Phil Jones, who at 5.2 represents the cheapest and most convincing route into Mourinho’s backline.

Over 95,000 managers have already brought in the England international, in expectation of further clean sheets to come, with Huddersfield up next potentially providing instant dividends.

For those who insist looking for something reassuringly more expensive – with perhaps a slightly greater upside – Antonio Valencia is also enjoying a hike in ownership: over 46,000 have now brought in the Ecuadorian, who leads the way as the top scoring defender in the game.

It was a Gameweek to forget for many other premium defenders, with clean sheets scarce and poor points output on show.

Ben Davies – owned by nearly a quarter of FPL managers – was unexpectedly ruled out for Spurs, and has suffered 71,000 sales off the back of that no-show and his absence from tonight’s tie in Madrid.

Other popular options like Cesar Azpilicueta and Kyle Walker even inflicted own goals, heaping misery on their owners. Walker had gained 25,000 new owners and a price rise before Saturday’s misdemeanour.

This season has been unique in the level of investment we’ve seen in defenders, often at the expense of midfield spend.

Davies is the key example, but others like Azpilicueta and Marcos Alonso have had their time in the sun. However, with many faltering in Gameweek 8, we’d suggest watching to see if this sparks a trend that drives managers reallocating funds further up the pitch. Could heavy midfield investment return? Points from Hazard against Watford may just be the key to that.

Have the prayers for a cheap third striker been finally answered?

Tammy Abraham reasserted his goalscoring potential, netting his third and fourth goals of the campaign against Huddersfield.

With 23 strikes for Bristol City in the mid-tier of the Championship last season, we knew he possessed a poachers instinct, and that has now started to reveal itself in the top flight.

Abraham has already risen in value to 5.7, with over 110,000 managers drafting him in. However, it is mostly the expensive forwards being moved on. That means that those managers making the sales are presumably pocketing some hefty loose change to either invest in a combination move or to use for next Gameweek – perhaps in anticipation of a revival for the Chelsea assets.

Mkhitaryan and Alli exodus picking up pace

Henrikh Mkhitaryan’s usual double assist has been replaced with a double blank, as have Dele Alli’s braces from last season.

With the fixtures also stiffening in the short term for both players, it has made the task of affording City midfielders rather straightforward.

So far, Mkhitaryan has had over 96,000+ transfers out – more than any other player – with Alli sustaining 77,000+ sales. Both are predominantly being swapped for Man City assets. More than 38,000 have exchanged Mkhitaryan for Sterling, with 20,000 former Alli owners making the same decision.

Notably, Christian Eriksen continues to outshine Alli as the go-to midfielder within the Spurs ranks: a third goal of the season on Saturday lifted him to the top of the overall standings.

However, uninspiring Spurs home form – which has sparked 46,000 Kane sales so far – has meant that managers have largely overlooked Eriksen. He can boast 33,000 new owners to this point, but that’s 20,000 fewer than De Bruyne, the least popular of City’s midfield quartet.

In conclusion

Despite the horizon in the UK turning a reddish hue on Monday afternoon, the Fantasy skies have remained a shocking sky blue.

Managers are stopping at nothing to bring in City attacking assets, and this has shaken up the market once again, with Chelsea, Spurs, Arsenal and United options all being ushered out at pace.

A tough test against the away day giant killers Burnley is up next for City, while Pep’s penchant for rotation remains a lingering concern.

Aguero is also the crucial factor. There will be some doubtless waiting for further clues to his fate before committing to second and particularly a third City asset, with the Argentine likely to be established as the major draw – eventually.

One thing is certain: those without City cover for Gameweek 8 were punished, and it is clear from the market trends that many have rushed to seek a remedy regardless of the Aguero scenario.

The trend to monitor from this point is the challenge to the premium defender consensus, which seems to have been eroded somewhat this week.

If this is repeated in the Gameweek to come, it may see knock-on effects in particular in midfield, which could reassert itself as a stronger source for points once again.

The fixtures for some of the mid-priced midfielders such as Richarlison (6.2) at Watford and Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting (5.6) at Stoke soften significantly now. We may see a redistribution of funds from the defence to replace 4.5 fourth and fifth midfielders if they show signs of blossoming over kind schedules.

Meanwhile, Abraham’s form, coupled with further blanks for Kane and Lukaku heading into their head-to-head in Gameweek 10, could inspire some serious movement.