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The Technical Area – Expected Goals Prevented

Regular readers of the Technical Area articles will no doubt be familiar with expected goals (xG), a key metric introduced to the Fantasy Football Scout Members’ area this year as a means of estimating goal scoring returns on the basis of chance quality.

This week, however, we are flipping our focus to examine the top goalkeepers over this year’s campaign and to introduce, for the first time, our related keeper-specific metric: expected goals prevented (xGP).

In brief, this data tallies the quantity and quality of chances a goalkeeper is faced with, in order to calculate a baseline of their expected goals conceded. From this number, we subtract the true number of goals that have beaten each goalkeeper, in order to determine the expected goals they have personally deterred.

This week’s Technical Area will be running the rule over how FPL’s highest-owned goalkeepers have performed in this particular metric thus far.

We also take a wider view of the position as it now stands, in light of the recent uncertainty surrounding the pitch time of budget-friendly options such as Rob Elliot and Julian Speroni.

1,215 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Ask Yourself
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Adrian highly likely to replace Hart this weekend. Promising for the DGW

    1. The Wanton Trader
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      Deserves too...!
      I have Masuaku, so won’t be looking to bring him in though...
      Couldn’t stomach a double W/Ham defence... 😉

  2. KingOfLuck
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Would you rather have A or B?

    A Courtois and Kabasele = 10m
    B Gomes and Christensen = 10m

    Why did Kabasele go of at 63 min last game?
    What does Value (form) and Value (season) stand for when sorting transfer objects?

  3. Diamondgeezer
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Ready to explode!!!

    To find an edge in the captain picks I have analysed the chances of hitting a right pick each week.
    To do this I have selected midfielders or forward who have score 75 points or more this season (I left out defenders/goalkeepers as I never captain my defenders/goalkeepers). I also included Coutinho and Hazard as they have not had enough game time to score 75 but have scored big across the games they have played.
    I have classified an explosion as a double digit score.
    I have tried to take out games where players have had limited/no pitch time.

    Looking at my record for the season I have picked the right captain around 25% of the time. Not great record, if I had just captained Kane from gameweek 1 and left it on him I would have done better.
    The table at the bottom of the post give the best players to pick (when they are likely to start a game). The best two in the game so far this season are Sane and Coutinho with Salah a close 3rd. These 3 have hauled in about half the games they have played in. The next grouping of Hazard Kane and Morata haul in about a 3rd of their games.
    I would rule anyone below this out as a captain option unless they had a plum fixture or a big increase in form.
    Sane sits at the top of this list due to a streak he had of 5 hauls in 7 gameweeks, suggesting he form player and is best to pick when he starts scoring big again. Kane follows a similar pattern to this scoring big in a run of games and then going quite again.
    Salah is interesting as he is very up and down, scoring big 2 games in a row only once out of the 6 occasions he has hauled. Morata is similarly erratic with FPL scoring.
    Finally Coutinho and Hazard are harder to read as they have had less game time this season.

    The take away from this data is get Kane and Sane when they find some form and leave the captain on them for a few weeks.
    For Salah and Morata don't chase points after they have hauled, it is actually better to captain the week after the have not hauled as they will then be due a big week.
    Coutinho and Hazard are worth monitoring as they are risky for both game time, but if they get more game time it will become clearer if they are form players or erratic scorers.

    Name % of games played scoring 10 or above
    Sane 50%
    Coutinho 50%
    Salah 46%
    Hazard 38%
    Kane 36%
    Morata 30%
    Sterling 25%
    Aguero 20%
    Jesus 20%
    De Bruyne 20%
    Ramsey 15%
    D Silva 15%
    Richarlison 15%
    Lukaku 14%
    Grob 14%
    Mahrez 14%
    Eriksen 13%

    1. GXNG
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      Captaincy isn't all about getting halls though. Anything about 4 points for me is a captain success.

      1. Diamondgeezer
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 11 months ago

        Thanks Doosra, combining the two tables could be a powerful tool. I will try and get my data on the members area too.

  4. We Will Klopp you
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Pope (*Elliott)
    Azpi Otamendi *Ward Dunk *Daniels
    Salah Sterling Hazard Richarlison RLC
    Kane Morata *Niasse

    Looking to get a few issues dealt with over the next couple of gws. I'm thinking that Burnley aren't keeping enough clean sheets to double up on them at present so want rid of Ward.

    Plan is: Daniels to Sakho -4 for this gw and Ward to Femenia free gw17. This will leave 0.3m itb for either switching out Elliott for a Palace keeper or to go towards the Heaton fund. Thoughts?

    1. aleksios
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      Looks like solid plan.

    2. the snazzy viking
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      so basically 3 transfers to upgrade your goalkeeper?

      1. We Will Klopp you
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 11 months ago

        No, to get rid of players I no longer want and get in good options to replace them, keeper might not even get upgraded

        1. the snazzy viking
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 11 months ago

          Ok I personally wouldn’t downgrade Daniels nor Ward, both great options imo. If you need to spread the funds elsewhere I’d do Daniels to Zeeg, and hold Ward, and maybe use the funds from that move to upgrade Pope, Niasse or Elliot

          1. We Will Klopp you
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 11 months ago

            Cheers. Bournemouth don't keep many clean sheets which is the issue with Daniels as well as his immediate fixtures. My thinking with Sakho is that he's the bap magnet so every time they pick up a cleanie in comes 8-9 points, Palace seem to have tightened up too. Ward on his own is a good option but the issue is that because I have Pope I always end up benching him to spread the risk, so I find there's no point having him. Fixtures a mixed bag soon too. Thinking Niasse to Crouch at some point too, should be good for a few bench points if needed

            1. We Will Klopp you
              • 8 Years
              6 years, 11 months ago

              *a bap magnet

  5. aleksios
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Which one?

    a) Alonso-Kola-Richarlison
    b) Ota-Christensen-Sterling.

    Thanks.

    1. We Will Klopp you
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      B for me but close

  6. joersherman
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Advice much appreciated guys. 0.8 itb 1 FT

    Pope (Elliot)
    Ota Maguire Ward Duffy (Rangel)
    Haz Salah Sane Richarlison RLC
    Kane Morata (Niasse)

    Thought perhaps Ota > Chistensen or Sane > Coutinho? Or deal with Rangel/Niasse?

    1. aleksios
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      Just upgrade Rangel.Solid team.

    2. We Will Klopp you
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      Rangel is the priority. You only have 1 secure sub at present

  7. Scotty B
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Why is everyone so obsessed with Kane on here?

    1. Deano
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      Can play a bit.

    2. AllanM
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      There’s an unhealthy obsession.

  8. Deano
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Breaking news!

    Reports from down under are that Cook, Bairstow, Stokes and Pietersen are lobbying for an Ashes team in 2019 without any English players. Representatives of the four from Scotland, Wales, New Zealand and South Africa respectively have suggested “they are sick and tired of playing with losers.”

    More to follow......

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      Get some sleep Deano.

      1. Deano
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 11 months ago

        Just setting up the rack for Dingo to break in a few hours mate.

    2. Monkey Hanger
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      Make the most of it. Doesn't happen too often. Think its five for us out of the last seven, isn't it?

  9. HD7
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    For next GW who to play:

    RLC or DCL

    Bench 1:
    Mee, Walker, Mustafi, Richarlison

  10. Jubilanus / BSC Small Boys …
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Best mid for 5.3 or less... not RLC.

    Thanks in advance.

    1. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      Doucoure

    2. the snazzy viking
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      Surman or Doucoure

    3. The Wanton Trader
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      Young’s worth a go...

  11. MFFista
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Pope
    Alonso-Gomez -Monreal (Otamendi - TAA)
    Salah-Hazard(c)-Sterling-Gross-RLC
    Kane-Morata (Niasse)

    Who would you start:
    A) Gomez
    B) Otamendi

    1FT, save it?

  12. Pep says
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Listen to 79thBonusEpi - Interview with FFScout HoF no.1 Jay Egersdorff by !Fantasy Football Surgery #np on #SoundCloud

    https://soundcloud.com/fantasyfootballsurgery/79thbonusepi

    This is worth a listen

    1. CloudSky
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      This is becoming an unhealthy obsession with Jay, Pep. It's what we in the business call "fplvirginitis".

      1. Football Weekender
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 11 months ago

        Full blown “fplvirginitis” requires a bizarre combination of endless fawning and trolling of the same person 😆

        1. CloudSky
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 11 months ago

          That would be stage 4. Uncurable. There is still hope for Pep though.

          1. Football Weekender
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 11 months ago

            If he starts using the phrase “... at our peril” then we know it’s escalating.

            1. CloudSky
              • 8 Years
              6 years, 11 months ago

              I agree. Will have to monitor.

    2. wulfrunian
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      Is really interesting the way he speaks shows that the simple and basic things(local press,fixtures,data etc) are the most important.

    3. Alex_thekid
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      Don't like the theory of it wouldn't go near the likes of Jones Shaqiri etc injury risks it's 1 transfer Jones got me a shit load of points 6t7 clean sheets Shaqiri obviously a wildcard last int break has got me a couple of goals + assists what's your thoughts on this?

  13. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Planning ahead...
    A) Zee+Ogbonna(benchfodder most time except GW22)
    B) Sakho+Hunemeier fodder

    1. Football Weekender
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      I like the idea of stashing Ogbonna as a cheap third sub until the DGW. It’s something I’m looking at. Yes West Ham are terrible at present but so we’re Stoke last season and their defenders came out of their DGW very well when everyone was backing Man City assets.

  14. Demel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Which would you start?

    A) DCL liv
    B) RLC BOU

    1. Wheato182
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      Have both myself and starting RLC

      1. E25
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 11 months ago

        this

    2. justmatt
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      I also have both and will be starting RLC

    3. jimmy.floyd
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      B

  15. Corgz Dark side of the Loon
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Do we think Jose is talking up Linderof or he really does like him ?? and his he nailed ahead of Jones ??

    1. Maddamotha
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      Jones will play when fit imo.

  16. Jimjam
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Need to downgrade one of Kane or Aguero to fund Hazard.

    It's Aguero, for reasons of nailed-on-ness, right? Feel nervous transferring out a City attacker though.

    1. E25
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      I did Kun, I do have Sterling tho...

  17. FPL Maldini
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Do we feel that Kenny is nailed? Trying to decide on a combo over Xmas...

    a) Kiko and Pickford

    b) Gomes and Kenny

    1. the snazzy viking
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      A

    2. ooooo
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      a

  18. wulfrunian
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Dann was back in training.

  19. czechow
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Why is everyone transferring in Shaw? Played one game in the Champions league and people are buying him?! Am i missing some vital piece of information here?

    1. CloudSky
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      Dont think anyone here bought him.

    2. FPL Maldini
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      Have you met a casual?

      1. czechow
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 11 months ago

        Ahh - I see. Makes sense now. Most transferred in player per hour at the moment. Ridiculous.

  20. Maddi Son
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Best 2 to start?

    - Kiko
    - Otamendi
    - Daniels
    - RLC

  21. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    These stats are crap, and bear no relation. I don't know why - that is for someone else to suss out, but they are! 😕

    1. Deano
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      On to the reds a bit early tonight?

  22. ZakAFC_
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Wildcard to get Hazard in?

    Pope
    Azpi, Kolasinac, Ward
    Salah, Sterling, Groß, Richarlison
    Morata, Kane, Vardy

    Elliot, RLC, Daniels, Mariappa

    1FT, 0.2 ITB

    1. liiusions
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      Team looks good, I'd try hold off WC if you can.

      Can you afford Vardy->4.5 and Gross->Hazard?

      1. ZakAFC_
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 11 months ago

        Nah, -0.7m

      2. ZakAFC_
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 11 months ago

        Would have to take out Azpi as well

    2. gwitbrock
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      azpi to christensen, vardy to dlc, gross to hazard. would be a waste of a wildcard, hits are way underrated on here.

      1. ZakAFC_
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 11 months ago

        0.1 short, but would that be worth a -8?

        1. gwitbrock
          • 10 Years
          6 years, 11 months ago

          damn that's close. But yes fwiw i think to get in a player like hazard on this form the points hit is really neither here nor there. He is quite likely a season keeper and I would treat it as a credit card fee to buy something online that you really want. The point is getting in the player.

  23. Champions united
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Whom to captain
    1 haazard
    2 salah
    3 kane
    4 morata

    1. liiusions
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      1 for me. Armband hasn't left him since the Swansea game

  24. Maddamotha
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    What would you this with this lot?
    I have 2 fts. 0itb

    Foster (Elliot)
    Otamendi, Ward, Daniels, Jones (Mbemba)
    Salah, Hazard, Sterling, Chopou, Carroll
    Lukaku - Kane

    A) Lukaku and Daniels to Morata and Christensen (leaves me with 0itb)
    B) Lukaku and Chopou, to Firmino and Ramsey (leaves me with 0.3itb)
    C) Other

  25. Evasivo
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Nevermind Kane, time to sell Otamendi?

    1. liiusions
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      Think I would be if I had him. Goal last weekend overshadows how poor defensively City have been the past few games

    2. Maddi Son
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      Might be time to sell Salah too.

    3. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      MCY : mun 49 swa 510 TOT 117 BOU 498 new 362 cpl 504 WAT 486

      1. Maddamotha
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 11 months ago

        What does this mean?

      2. Evasivo
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 11 months ago

        It's not about fixtures for me with Ota,it's about his defensive form

        1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 11 months ago

          Well, I think he is playing well, fwiw. Fernandinho is a big miss ...

      3. gwitbrock
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 11 months ago

        Doosra these numbers completely undermine human judgement and the reality of how vulnerable Man City (or other dominant teams in seasons gone by) are and can be defensively without afecting their propensity to win games. I think with how the league has progressed from an attacking standpoint, wingback systems and front 3's etc., your system needs a shake up.

        1. Deano
          • 12 Years
          6 years, 11 months ago

          Grabs popcorn.

        2. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 11 months ago

          I am all for undermining human judgement. Seeing as how crap it is, n'all ... 😉

          1. gwitbrock
            • 10 Years
            6 years, 11 months ago

            Can't disagree with you on that in this day and age. But I mean it completely takes 'the eye test' out of the equation. Small shifts in form at either end of the pitch or at least indicators to suggest possible shifts.

            Also in this case I think the issue is that your system is good at assessing fixture difficulty in terms of wins/losses and predicting players/teams having more chance of realizing their fantasy potential, but is incapable of accounting for teams enjoying this same freedom and success within games, but still conceding one goal, thereby souring them as defensive fpl options.

            1. gwitbrock
              • 10 Years
              6 years, 11 months ago

              Which in the current game is more and more common I think. Liverpool, City, Arsenal etc.

              1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                6 years, 11 months ago

                Well, them's the breaks. But everyone on here is down on Liverpool - and Arsenal, come to think of it - but their home records stand up to scrutiny.

                1. gwitbrock
                  • 10 Years
                  6 years, 11 months ago

                  OK, as an example mind sharing your gw 17/18 numbers for Liv/Ars?

            2. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 14 Years
              6 years, 11 months ago

              Well, no, it does not take proper observation out. It is just a guide. But, the whole point, is that it is devoid of opinion, in that the same algorithm is applied without favour to all teams equally. It is, therefore, a very good starting point. 🙂

              1. gwitbrock
                • 10 Years
                6 years, 11 months ago

                The second part of my argument is the more important one, imo.

    4. Evasivo
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      Defence wise he's been seriously poor, think I'm sold just wondering others opinions

  26. AzzaroMax99
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Is this squad set to go for weekend?

    Fabianski
    Azpi, Mee, Daniels, Dunk
    Sane, Salah, Ramsey, Sterling
    Morata, Kane(C)

    Elliot, Niasse, RLC, Mariappa

    Is this ok or to play 3-5-2 with RLC and bench Daniels?

  27. Colonel Klink
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Is the Chelsea central midfield basically Fabregas, Kanté and Drinkwater now? Or is Bakayoko ahead of Drinky?

    1. Maddi Son
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      A hydrated Drinkwater gets ahead of Bakayoko atm in my opinion.

      1. Colonel Klink
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 11 months ago

        I think he’s the better player.

    2. gwitbrock
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      Noone's ahead of drinky. First step is to admit it.

  28. FortunesAlwaysHiding
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Play Mee (WAT) or Zeegalaar (bur) this week?

    Thank you

    1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      BUR : WAT 124
      WAT : bur -124

      1. FortunesAlwaysHiding
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 11 months ago

        I understand that as Mee, right?

        1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 11 months ago

          Correct! 😀

      2. Colonel Klink
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 11 months ago

        Where do you get these numbers, Doosra? I find them very helpful.

        1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 11 months ago

          Colonel Klink?

          They are from my ticker. If you want a copy, just post an email.

          1. Colonel Klink
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            6 years, 11 months ago

            An email here?

  29. CloudSky
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Mark Clattenburg: "I still smile at the first time I came across Roy Keane in 2004. He screamed at us for a corner and I'm sure it was a goal kick but because he screamed at us so loudly, I gave a corner, I was that petrified of him."

  30. Carcaju
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 11 months ago

    Ben Davies + Niasse -> Christensen + Calvert Lewin

    Yes or no? If any of the prices change I won't be able to do this, so I'm seriously considering doing it tonight

    1. gwitbrock
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 11 months ago

      i say yay