Scout Notes – Gameweek 31 Takes Shape

There are no shocks from Saturday’s FA Cup fifth round ties as Fantasy managers can finally start planning for the disrupted Gameweeks to come with nearly all of the uncertainty removed.

Unless Rochdale pull off a huge upset in their tie at home to Spurs this afternoon, Gameweek 31’s schedule is now sorted.

Four matches will definitely take place:

Bournemouth v West Brom
Huddersfield v Crystal Palace
Stoke v Everton
Liverpool v Watford

As mentioned, Spurs vs Newcastle could conceivably join the list. We’ll know for sure after today’s 4pm kick-off.

Yesterday’s four cup ties added two fixtures to Gameweek 31.

Man United saw off Huddersfield 2-0, with a brace from Romelu Lukaku confirming the Terriers’ home match with Palace.

Juan Mata and Alexis Sanchez provided the assists for a clinical United side who struggled to contain their hosts but were ruthless on the break. A controversial VAR offside decision also denied Mata a goal of his own.

Both managers picked strong sides for the match, with Jose Mourinho’s options at the back boosted by a late substitute appearance from centre-half Eric Bailly – his first action since picking up an ankle injury in Gameweek 11.

Paul Pogba missed the match with a widely-publicised illness, Jesse Lingard and Anthony Martial came on in the second half and David De Gea, Phil Jones and Antonio Valencia were given the day off.

United’s blank Gameweek 31, their Champions League commitments and an immediate schedule involving visits from Chelsea and Liverpool over the next three Gameweeks hardly promote investment in their assets.

But Mourinho’s teamsheet for Wednesday’s tie with Sevilla will still be of interest, particularly to those still retaining Jones and Lingard.

The second tie to add a fixture to Gameweek 31 involved West Brom and Southampton.

The Saints pulled off a 2-1 away win courtesy of goals from Wesley Hoedt and Dusan Tadic, with James Ward-Prowse and Guido Carrillo providing the assists.

A spectacular goal from Salomon Rondon, who volleyed home a long Grzegorz Krychowiak pass, proved to be no more than a consolation for the Baggies, who will now travel to Bournemouth for Gameweek 31.

Alan Pardew’s men are in a dark place and their assets not exactly attractive.

Bottom of the league, the board beset by sackings and senior players embroiled in the now-infamous Barcelona taxi incident, West Brom have kept one clean sheet in seven Gameweeks and scored just eight goals in as many matches.

That’s unfortunate for Fantasy managers, who would otherwise consider their options for the run-up to Gameweek 31, given their obliging schedule (HUD wat LEI).

If anything, this fourth Gameweek 31 fixture brings Bournemouth players onto our radars, with Callum Wilson and Junior Stanislas in good form and Fantasy favourite Charlie Daniels offering potential attacking returns, albeit in a defence that’s kept only one clean sheet since Gameweek 14

The Cherries’ short-term schedule is far less promising (NEW lei TOT), though their recent result and performance at Chelsea suggest that Howe’s men are capable of delivering a welcome surprise over this period.

Certainly, those holding Wilson will be encouraged, with the striker also likely to attract new investors leading into Gameweek 31. Similarly, Daniels will go into that Gameweek as one of the few cheap defenders offering good potential for a clean sheet and attacking points.

Elsewhere…

Yesterday’s other two ties involved a 3-1 for Brighton over Coventry in which record signing Jurgen Locadia scored a debut goal from an Anthony Knockaert cross.

Connor Goldson doubled their advantage before the on-loan Leonardo Ulloa marked his return to the Seagulls with the third. Markus Suttner and Bruno Saltor provided the assists.

The only downside was an injury to stand-in keeper Tim Krul, who was replaced at half-time after a collision with Coventry goalscorer Jonson Clarke-Harris.

Brighton’s win confirmed that their Gameweek 31 trip to Man City will now have to be rescheduled, not that Seagulls players are attracting much interest anyway.

Their run-in involves five of the top six, including three of them – Spurs and Man United at home and Liverpool away – across their last four fixtures.

Meanwhile, Sheffield Wednesday and Swansea City played out a drab 0-0 draw at Hillsborough.

Swans’ coach Carlos Carvalhal made six changes to the side that had beaten Burnley last weekend and was forced into another when the 3.7%-owned Alfie Mawson injured his knee in the warm-up.

Kyle Naughton replaced him, while popular striker Jordan Ayew (13.6%) came on after the break as Swansea searched in vain for a winner.

The replay will take place on Tuesday, February 27 – between a trip to Brighton and a visit from West Ham.

Regardless of that result, their Gameweek 31 fixture with Southampton will now have to be moved as the Saints will be in quarter-final action that weekend.

The Quarter-Final Draw

United’s win at Huddersfield yesterday evening was followed by the draw for the last eight in the FA Cup:

Swansea/Sheff Wed v Rochdale/Spurs
Man United v Brighton
Leicester v Chelsea
Wigan/Man City v Southampton

The winners of those ties will play in the semi-finals on the weekend of April 21, which coincides with Gameweek 35.

The league fixtures guaranteed to remain in that Gameweek are:

Arsenal v West Ham
Everton v Newcastle
Stoke v Burnley
Watford v Crystal Palace
West Brom v Liverpool

Should United lose to Brighton in the FA Cup quarter-finals, then their fixture away at Bournemouth would also remain in Gameweek 35.

Similarly, a Chelsea defeat would confirm the Blues’ home match against Huddersfield.

Other than that, the other ties require a range of permutations and results in order to survive the need for rescheduling.

With Champions League and Europa League semi-finals taking place in the midweek leading into Gameweeks 36 and 37, the postponed fixtures from Gameweek 35 look certain to take place in Gameweek 37: the midweek before the final Gameweek of the season.

Revisiting The Free Hit Chip

The debate as to whether to use the Free Hit chip in either Gameweek 31 or 35 was leaning towards the latter window and the quarter-final draw appears to back up that argument.

Gameweek 35 already involves one more match and with the potential addition of at least two extra fixtures should FA Cup results fall right.

The schedule includes Liverpool once again, plus an Arsenal side possessing a number of attractive attacking options who have a very strong home encounter against West Ham.

Free Hit managers should have enough talent on offer to take advantage of the remaining Gameweek 35 fixtures; arguably the balance between inactive and active players looks likely to be better in that respect than in Gameweek 31.

However, non-Free Hit managers could also look to exploit Arsenal.

They are set to have a double Gameweek 34 and, of course, play in Gameweek 35. So the advantage for Free Hit managers regarding Arsenal’s Gameweek 35 assets may yet be minimal.

Burnley are another team set to be given a double in Gameweek 34, who are also active in Gameweek 35.

For those now set on the Gameweek 35 Free Hit, planning for Gameweek 31’s blanks must take precedence.

There are four free transfers available – five for those who carried over from Gameweek 27 – ahead of the Gameweek 31 deadline.

Managers must now assess their existing Gameweeek 31 assets and plan additions, taking care not to be blinkered and avoid considering those players inactive in Gameweek 31, but with strong potential for points.

The sweet spot for the majority of non-Free Hit managers for Gameweek 31 could be eight players, with Mohamed Salah surely already booked in as the Gameweek captain.

Around him, the following assets are likely to be among the leading contenders for recruitment over the next four Gameweek deadlines:

Loris Karius
Jordan Pickford
Virgil van Dijk
Charlie Daniels
Mohamed Salah
Theo Walcott
Xherdan Shaqiri
Sadio Mane
Roberto Firmino
Callum Wilson
Oumar Niasse

The likes of Christopher Schindler, Ahmed Hegazi, Gylfi Sigurdsson, Junior Stanislas, Salomon Rondon, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting and Gerard Deulofeu make up some of the differential contingent and names that will doubtless figure in a Free Hit XI.

The question is, do the potential points from three or four of those players give an XI a major advantage over a seven or eight-man non-Free Hit line-up?

A 20-30 point swing could be achieved, but is dependent on hitting the correct differentials. Given the names on offer, that appears difficult to pull off.

Instead, those booking the Free Hit for Gameweek 31 will look to exploit their remaining transfers over Gameweeks 28-30 in the hope they can gain more advantage by acquiring profitable non-active Gameweek 31 players.