Learning from The Great and The Good: Gameweek 3

“You’ve got to ask yourself a question: ‘do I feel lucky?’ Well, do ya, punk?”

A couple of ‘The Great and The Good’ did feel lucky this week and pulled the trigger on their wildcards. This was particularly surprising in the case of Ville Ronka who managed a good start and was within the top 100k. Less shocking was Mark’s decision to pull the trigger based on his rank outside of the 1 million mark. Anyway, lots of change this week as I continue to track the moves and grooves of some of the FPL experts/celebrities/prominent users. As a reminder I have selected an assortment of managers to follow and gain some kind of insight into the strategies that work or in some cases don’t work. The Great and The Good are Jay Egersdorff, Ville Ronka, The Scoutcasters (Jonty, Andy, Az, David, Granville and Mark), Eliteserien’s expert Niemi, and the last man standing Torres Magic.

Overall Performance 

TorresMagic GW 54 pts Total 238 pts (rank 24831)

Az GW 56 pts Total 228 pts (rank 60877)

Niemi GW 60 pts Total 225 pts (rank 78716)

Ville Ronka GW 51 pts Total 223 pts (rank 89853)

David GW 51 pts Total 217 pts (rank 145008)

Granville GW 52 pts Total 215 pts (rank 166994)

Jonty GW 43 pts Total 213 pts (rank 191996)

Andy GW 50 pts Total 204 pts (rank 344256)

Jay Egersdorff GW 36 pts Total 194 pts (rank 607181)

Mark GW 51 pts Total 181 pts (rank 1109775)

The wildcards didn’t appear to pay off in the short term with Mark and Ville Ronka treading water in terms of overall rank and both achieving 51 points which was only 1 above the average this week. Mark still remains outside the top 1 million.

The best week from The Great and The Good was achieved by Niemi with 60 points thanks in part to Mitrovic and he moves into the top 100k. Az also benefitted from the Fulham striker’s brace this week and Granville was saved from a poor score due to Moura’s good performance at Old Trafford.

Meanwhile, both Jonty and Jay had poor weeks and suffered red arrows. Jay in particular had a tough week with only Salah providing any points of note and one of a number of managers who suffered from transferring in Richarlison only to see him leave the pitch for an early bath. Can we expect another wildcard this week as the FPL no.1 attempts to change his fortunes?

Transfers and Hits

There was a deadline day type frenzy with all of the managers making their initial moves in the transfer market. As mentioned we also saw the first wildcards being played.

Let’s start with the wildcards:

Ville Ronka 

In – Fraser, Ings, Ederson, Alonso, Mkhitaryan, Cook, Hamer

Out – Jota, King, Bednarek, Patricio, Eriksen, Peltier, Stekelenburg

Ronka was surgical in his wildcard and made seven transfers. This meant changing up his goalkeepers with Ederson coming in as the set and forget option. His move out of Eriksen and some other downgrades meant he could afford to bring in Alonso and Mkhitaryan. Finally he was one to follow the popular move of Ings in for King. Surprising as normally his patient approach would have seen the Bournemouth man given a bit more time. As mentioned previously the initial impact of the wildcard has been minimal but let’s see if his pick’s performance improve over the coming weeks.

Mark

In – Guendozi, Aubameyang, Fabri, Bennett, Hennessey, Alonso, TAA, Sessegnon, Mkhitaryan, Wilson, Aguero

Out – Foster, Fab, VVD, A Smith, Tomkins, Sanchez, Mahrez, Jota, King, Zaha, Arnie

Much more qualified people than me have already analysed his wildcard so I will keep this brief. There are more wholesale changes than Ronka’s with eleven adjustments. He has a clear change in the structure of his squad with a rebalance towards his front line. His trio of mid price strikers are replaced by the heavy hitters of Aguero and Aubameyang (plus Wilson as a cheaper addition). Elsewhere he brings in the popular Alonso and Mkhitaryan. The Sessegnon move for me is the most intriguing although it did not get off to the best of starts, as he did not even make Fulham’s starting eleven at the weekend. Time will tell if his early wildcard will pay off..

This is a summary of the transfers in from the remaining managers:

Andy – Mane, Mkhitaryan (Jota, Sanchez)

Az – Richarlison, Mkhitaryan (Jota, Siggy)

David – Mkhitaryan, Ings (Lacazette, Lennon)

Granville – Pedro, Foster (DDG, Jota)

Jay Egersdorff – Richarlison, Pedro (Jota, Ozil)

Jonty – Mkhitaryan, Ings (Eriksen,King)

Niemi – Brooks, Hazard (Jota, Mahrez)

Torres Magic – Alonso, Mkhitaryan, Ings (Peltier,Jota,King)

*transfers out are in brackets.

All of the managers made a couple of transfers but only TorresMagic took a hit. The most popular transfer in was Mkhitaryan as the Arsenal fixtures turn but Ings also proved a popular purchase. There was fire sale on Jota with all the managers scrambling to get rid after his early substitution last week. Az and Jay will be cursing their luck after bringing in Richarlison as he now will not be available for a couple of gameweeks. Do they stick or twist on the Brazilian?

Team Selection 

After the wildcards and the initial changes the template now looks like this:

Foster, Fab

Mendy, Wan-Bissaka, Robertson, Peltier, Tomkins/Alonso

Salah, Richarlison, Mane, Stephens, Mkhitaryan

Aguero, Ings, Kamara

Jota is jettisoned from the template and is replaced by Mkhitaryan who now sits in seven of the teams. We see Ings come in for King although maybe more patience should have been shown as the Bournemouth striker scored nine points against Everton. Mark righted his wrong by putting Aguero in his wildcard team to mean he joins Salah, Wan-Bissaka and Mendy in all of the teams being followed.

Team Investment and Formation

Average Cost of Player looks like this across the teams based on week 1 prices.

Goalkeeper –  4.5

Defender – 5.0

Midfielder – 8.2

Forward – 7.9

ITB – 1.0

Most noteworthy is the average of 1m that The Great and The Good have in the bank which will give them greater flexibility as more bandwagons appear. I suspect some of them may be planning a move for Hazard/Alonso or even an Arsenal player or two.

3-4-3 continues to edge 3-5-2 as the preferred formation with a 60/40 split this week.

Captain and Differentials

Despite Aguero’s heroics last week our wise group of managers all switched to Salah for the Brighton game. He repaid them with a goal although perhaps more was expected from the Egyptian.

The wildcards and transfers brought some more differentials across the teams. The most eye catching in Mark’s team are Sessegnon and Wilson. Niemi has gone early to bring in Hazard which could prove to be a smart move and Maddison still only remains in Az’s team for now. Disappointingly for Jonty, his differential pick of Boly sat on the bench as he scored his dubious goal for Wolves.

Anyway that’s all for now and don’t have nightmares.