Wisdom of the Crowd: Gameweek 4

Each week we will be reviewing the aggregated predictions on Superbru’s Premier League Predictor game, using the collective Wisdom of the Crowd predictions to guide our fantasy football thinking.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data – the more there are, the more accurate the crowd should be (in theory).  And don’t forget there is £50,000 in prize money on offer every week.

The Concept

We must all make predictions about how each match will go when deciding on our fantasy team selection, predicting where the goals will be scored, which teams are most likely to keep a clean sheet and so on.  If we aggregate the predictions of thousands of football fans playing the Premier League Predictor game on Superbru, any bias should be ironed out, and the collective knowledge will produce more accurate predictions that we can make on our own.

We tested this last season by taking the average community predictions, and entering them into the game as a user called Mr Crowd Wisdom.  That user finished in 20th place out of 481 people in the Fantasy Football Scout league – a highly knowledgeable group – and also beat 98% of other people on the global leaderboard.

We’ll follow the average picks again this season and hopefully it will provide another reference point for your fantasy team selections.

Gameweek 3 Review

Once again the average crowd’s predictions beat the community average, with 6 correct picks out of 10, including 3 ‘Close’ predictions and 2 Exact.  Mr Crowd Wisdom is now ranked 164th out of 688 in the FFScout league, and inside the top 20% on the global leaderboard.

Gameweek 4 Preview

Here is the Expected Goals chart for each fixture in GW4:

And here is the ranking of teams in order of Expected Goals Scored and Conceded:

After City and Liverpool only managed two goals between then in Round 3, expectations are slightly more tempered than in previous weeks.  Man City remain at the top of the predicted goals chart ahead of their home fixture with Newcastle, whilst Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham are all expected to score at least two goals each.

Everton’s defenders look set to prosper from their match against Huddersfield, whilst City’s assets should also keep a clean sheet.

Here are the aggregated predictions that we’ll enter for Mr Crowd Wisdom this week.

Good luck for Round 4!