FPL Question Time – What to do about Salah, Spurs midfield and Arsenal attack

It’s a Fantasy Football Scout video content special on Question Time ahead of Gameweek 17.

We’ve put together another panel to answer the big discussion topics after an eventful Gameweek 16.

Mohamed Salah, Spurs midfielders and Arsenal attackers are top of the pile this week…

Who’s on the panel this week?

Joe – the host of our Scoutcast – plus many other weekly videos – and who sits 79th in our Career Hall of Fame, having recorded seven top 10,000 finishes in ten seasons of playing FPL (including an “OR” of 840 in 2013/14).

David – the editor of Fantasy Football Scout and a regular contributor to the official FPL Show, who spends much of his week looking at the underlying stats in our Members’ area. David has nailed all 16 captaincy picks this season and is now inside the top 10k after Gameweek 16.

Neale – the site’s deputy editor, who has mustered three top 5k overall ranks in FPL but who awaits his first top 1,000 finish after a last-ditch, Newcastle-United-in-1995/96-esque capitulation in the last two Gameweeks of 2017/18. Sold Mohamed Salah ahead of Gameweek 16…

Question 1 – Joe

Darrell: With so many big hitters getting into form and favourable upcoming fixtures too, is it still a viable strategy to get rid of Salah for these few tough congested fixtures to accommodate maybe two others?

Joe: “On Saturday’s Breakfast Club Mark asked me what Salah had to do at Bournemouth to convince me to keep him, after I admitted I was looking to ditch over Christmas in favour of another midfield heavyweight.

“I must admit the Egyptian’s hat-trick has certainly turned my head.

“This has shown that perhaps he is now capable of the sort of explosive returns that he produced regularly last season.

“While I’m not expecting another haul against Manchester United this weekend, he could very well deliver handsomely when he travels to Wolverhampton in Gameweek 18, and at home to Newcastle on Boxing Day.

“Over the last six Gameweeks the Magpies are the third worst team in terms of conceding shots in the box. Meanwhile, over the same time frame Wolves have failed to keep a clean sheet and shipped 10 goals.

“As a result, I’m likely to stick with him over the next three fixtures then re-assess ahead of Arsenal and Manchester City clashes in Gameweek 20 and 21 respectively. Over the last six Gameweeks City have conceded the fewest shots and the Arsenal defence has improved recently. Since Gameweek 11 the Gunners have earned a place among the five best defences in terms of shipping attempts in the penalty area.

“My fears that Salah is merely a good, not great option, have certainly subsided since Bournemouth, especially as he faces another two poor defences over his next three.”

Question 2 – David

RJ: Which Spurs midfielder should be a good cover for their favourable fixtures?

David: “A few weeks ago I would have said Christian Eriksen deserves to be considered the best Spurs midfield option but Son Heung-min is making a very strong case for himself.

“Even though he feels like the most likely to be rotated during the Christmas period, the South Korean has actually made more starts than Eriksen or Alli in the last four Gameweeks. He has featured from the beginning in every match from Gameweek 13 onwards. The fact that he has completed 90 minutes just once in that run does indicate that Mauricio Pochettino is keen to manage his minutes so he can continue using him.

“Accordingly, no player has had more goal attempts in that time than Son, and he also sits top of the league for shots on target too.

“Perhaps the main question over the attacker is whether we expect his run of heavy involvement in the team continues. With Pochettino we will never be completely certain, especially with Lucas Moura and Erik Lamela waiting in the wings.

Son’s recent form will have certainly gone a long way to cementing his place in the side. There is also the possibility that Spurs will make the most of him with the Asian Cup coming up in January, maybe preferring to rest the alternatives during the Christmas period so they can be fresh when he departs after Gameweek 21.

“For those of you looking for a more assured start, Eriksen is still worth considering though. The fact that he was benched in Gameweek 16 suggests he’s rested for the Christmas period and has historically been a key player for the side.

“With injury problems hovering over Kieran Trippier, Eriksen should be back at the heart of set piece responsibilities, which has proved his bread and butter over the last few seasons of FPL.

“Dele Alli is worth looking at too, as he could prove a bit of a differential. Over the last four Gameweeks he has a better minutes per chance created and touch in the penalty box than Son.”

Question 3 – Neale

MiNO: Who is the best “benchable” fifth midfielder available for under £5.5m to bring in over Christmas?

Neale: “There are playable budget fifth midfielders and then there are those who are born for bench duty.

“Robert Snodgrass (£5.3m) is perhaps the stand-out midfielder available in this price bracket, with the Scottish winger having both the form and the fixtures to underpin his case. West Ham sit top of our Season Ticker over the festive period and Snodgrass has started seven of the last eight fixtures for the Hammers, only missing one match through suspension. No midfielder has been involved in more goals or created as many chances as Snodgrass in the last three Gameweeks.

“Callum Paterson (£5.3m) is another eye-catching budget candidate but, even though he is in fine form, I wonder how long the “out of position” midfielder has up front, with Neil Warnock’s pressers in recent weeks dominated by talk of Kenneth Zohore’s return – currently scheduled for Gameweek 18.

“Paterson and Snodgrass are, of course, examples of budget midfielders that Fantasy managers might be loath to bench.

“The Tom Carrolls of this world are what we are after: genuine bench fodder options that are (hopefully) guaranteed gametime over Christmas and who can auto-sub in off our benches if the expected rotation happens to players in our starting XI.

“Victor Camarasa (£4.6m) is my own preference, with the Cardiff midfielder having started the last 15 games and now playing as a “number ten” behind Paterson. A taker of corners and, as confirmed by Warnock last week, now penalty kicks, he could even chip in with the odd attacking return but can at least be relied on for a good old “two-pointer” should his services be needed.

“Alex Pritchard (£4.8m) is another decent budget option who plays either “in the hole” or alongside the main striker – the Huddersfield midfielder has started the last ten matches and the Terriers have some appealing fixtures over the Christmas break. Pritchard has looked threatening in recent games (he’s had the same number of shots as Richarlison in the last six Gameweeks) and indeed should have scored at the Emirates on Saturday. I can see him picking up an overdue second attacking return of the season over the festive period.”

Question 4 – Joe

Pedro: What influences your transfers? And is it different for defenders, midfielders and forwards?

Joe: “Above all a transfer is a two way process. It is not just a case of bringing in a player you want, but also ditching a player that is not performing. As was seen this week, when Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah was ditched by some FPL managers, a transfer decision is as much about the player you are dumping as it is about the new recruit.

“With this in mind each week I look at my team position by position in terms of weaknesses. What are each player’s fixtures like? What is their form like? Are there players I don’t own with better upcoming games who are scoring more points?

“So for example this week I look at Gylfi Sigurdsson’s two tough games (mci, TOT) and his team mate Richarlison’s better form. Meanwhile, for a similar price West Ham’s Felipe Anderson has great fixtures until mid January and double digit points hauls in half of his last six matches. That transfer makes sense, with Richarlison added to my watchlist when the Toffees’ fixtures improve.

“Across all positions I look for players who have multiple routes to points.

“For defenders a clean sheet is key, but I want more. This is why I ignored Aymeric Laporte when his City team mate Benjamin Mendy was injured and opted instead for Lucas Digne. The Everton fullback is on some set pieces and his underlying statistics screamed attacking returns, while the Sky Blues defender looked to be merely a clean sheet man at best.

“In midfield the spread of bonus, assist and goal returns is key. Anderson certainly has this with five goals, an assist as well as bonus on four occasions over his last six run outs. Raheem Sterling’s 13 bonus, eight successful strikes and seven assists also make him a justifiable top target for non-owners like myself.

“The same applies to forwards, with Harry Kane a recent transfer for me with the Spurs man offering creativity as well as goal scoring to his locker this season.

“Across all of these decisions there are other criteria that I add to the mix. Underlying statistics are extremely useful, but should not be used exclusively.

“The eye test can help as well, but once again, used alongside other factors.

“Here’s an example of a poor transfer, based solely on the eye test, instead of on a variety of factors. A few seasons back I was so impressed with Eden Hazard’s big haul against Everton that I transferred him in as the final whistle blew. He blanked for the next few games, something that was predictable if I’d have taken time to look at the underlying statistics of his upcoming opponents.

“Perhaps the 67,000 new Salah owners this week are making the same mistake I did with Hazard.”

Question 5 – David

Mikess: What to do with Lacazette? Crazy to ditch after just the one Gameweek?

David: “I think it’s worth exercising some patience with Alexandre Lacazette, even if he disappointed in Arsenal’s 1-0 win over Huddersfield.

“The biggest concern over the Frenchman is, of course, whether he will start matches or indeed finish them, substituted at half-time in Gameweek 16. That’s an understandable reason to be worried about Lacazette as I think it would be fair to say that Unai Emery doesn’t know his best XI yet.

“While he has suffered in terms of involvement in the last few weeks, in the aftermath of a minor injury, we must remember that he started every match between Gameweek 4 and 12, so Emery clearly values him. While he is more of a rotation threat than the likes of Aleksandar Mitrovic, Raul Jimenez or Chicharito, he still has the potential for points.

“Huddersfield came to the Emirates boasting solid enough defensive statistics in their four previous matches, but the same cannot be said for Arsenal’s next few opponents.

“Southampton are something of an unknown under new manager Ralph Hasenhuttle. Defensive improvements will almost certainly be high on his list of priorities but whether he has the personnel to achieve that remains to be seen.

“Either way, it seems likely that a very attacking Arsenal side can take advantage of a team in transition.

“After that it’s everybody’s favourite fixture in FPL this season, a home match against Burnley. We’ve said it enough times now in 2018/19, but the Clarets will give Arsenal plenty of opportunities for attacking returns.

“Brighton, Liverpool and Fulham are the three opponents after that, two of them offering potential for goals too.

“We know that the fixtures are there for Arsenal so I think it’s worth waiting around to see if Lacazette has the chance to play them. Maybe after Gameweek 17 or 18 is the time to make a final decision on him if he’s not been involved as much as we’d like.”

Question 6 – Neale

Adam Ramskill: Is Eden Hazard “essential” for the Christmas period?

Neale: “I must admit, Hazard is someone who I’m nervous about not owning over Christmas. There has been so much talk of Spurs and Arsenal’s fixture swing that Chelsea’s own enticing run over the next six Gameweeks (bri, LEI, wat, cry, SOU, NEW) has almost been overlooked.

“As a recent seller, there was an inevitability about his two assists in the win over Manchester City. I have to say, though, that I’d be happy for him to stay as the spearhead of the Chelsea attack over the festive period if I’m to remain without his services. I didn’t think he was much of a goal threat on Saturday and, while much, much easier tests await than the one that Pep Guardiola’s troops gave Chelsea at the Bridge, we have been burned before by his lack of Fantasy returns when “out of position” up front.

“Maurizio Sarri said he would use Hazard as a false nine again in “some matches”, but I suspect this might be a tactic he saves for encounters with fellow big six clubs.

“In the four Gameweeks preceding the last one, Hazard was top among FPL midfielders for both attempts on goal and chances created: if he’s back on the left wing, he’s a menace.

“To counter that argument, of course, it could be said that Chelsea don’t possess a convincing striker who can regularly convert those key passes into assists. Over half of Hazard’s 14 most-recent shots (the number he has attempted in the last six Gameweeks) have been from outside the box, too.

“Like most premium assets I suspect he’ll get a rest in one of the four fixtures that Chelsea play in Gameweeks 18-21, but that’s certainly not a reason to dodge him; as usual, a strong bench is the obvious answer to any rotation fears.

“Having just wildcarded, I’ll be going without Hazard over Christmas as I keep faith with the rejigged squad I’ve assembled.

“He is, however, one of only two players (the other being Mohamed Salah) who will be giving me sleepless nights over the coming month.”

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