Three FPL differentials with two fixtures in Double Gameweek 32

This weekly series puts the spotlight on three players who all have an ownership of 5% or under in Fantasy Premier League.

Differential picks are a valuable commodity for Fantasy managers chasing a mini-league deficit or hoping to improve their overall rank as we enter the season run-in.

All three of our selections this week have two fixtures in Double Gameweek 32, though of course, we’re at the mercy of possible rotation given the short turnaround time between matches.

David Silva (£8.5m)

FPL ownership: 5.0%

Just about clinging onto his differential tag after 28,000 transfers in (at the time of writing), David Silva (£8.5m) is one of seven Manchester City midfielders whose ownership currently stands at 5% or less.

Riyad Mahrez (£8.2m), Kevin De Bruyne (£9.7m) and Ilkay Gundogan (£5.4m) are among the other City assets in this bracket and, like Silva, there has to be legitimate concern over how many minutes each player will be handed with the reigning champions also facing an FA Cup semi-final a week on Saturday.

Pep Guardiola’s side face Fulham and Cardiff City before then, however, and even if Silva is only handed one start (and perhaps a substitute’s appearance) in Gameweek 32, there is plenty of optimism that he can wreak sufficient damage in whatever game-time he is afforded.

“El Mago”, unlike the likes of Gundogan and Bernardo Silva (£7.5m), has been rested over the international break and would perhaps have a slight edge regarding a start at Craven Cottage on Saturday.

Fulham have conceded two or more goals in all 11 of their Premier League matches in 2019 and have kept just two clean sheets this season.

Silva’s biggest FPL score of 2018/19, indeed, came in the reverse fixture back in September.

Cardiff, meanwhile, have lost all eight of their matches against “big six” opposition this season and conceded 27 goals in the process.

Silva’s recent goal record is a little off-putting (he hasn’t scored in the league this calendar year) but he does have four assists in his last six starts and only one Fantasy asset has created more big chances than Silva in 2019.

When Premier League players are filtered by their last six matches, the veteran playmaker ranks second for penalty box touches – even ahead of Raheem Sterling (£11.6m) and Sergio Aguero (£11.8m).

Our Gameweek 32 midfielders piece has more statistical analysis of Silva’s recent displays.

Ashley Young (£5.7m)

FPL ownership: 2.2%

While Manchester United’s clean sheets have dried up over their last three league matches, that run has coincided with injuries to defensive shields Nemanja Matic and Ander Herrera (both £5.0m) – as well as other players further up the pitch.

With bodies flooding back from injury, there are reasons to be positive of the Red Devils recording at least one shut-out in Double Gameweek 32.

Only United’s cross-city rivals have kept more clean sheets and conceded fewer goals than Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side (five) in 2019, while just three top-flight teams have allowed fewer big chances during that time.

There is also a chance that Watford and Wolves, United’s opponents in Gameweek 32, may also have one eye on their FA Cup semi-final meeting at Wembley a week on Sunday, with rotation a strong possibility in both camps.

The Hornets have actually registered fewer shots on target than any Premier League side this calendar year.

Both Wolves and Watford sit in the bottom four for attempts on goal during this period, although admittedly only three clubs have carved out more big chances than Nuno Espirito Santo’s side.

Even if the clean sheets don’t materialise, Ashley Young (£5.7m) could potentially compensate with an attacking return.

A taker of corners and free-kicks, Young has the third-best minutes-per-chance-created average among first-choice FPL defenders in 2019.

Young has started eight of the last nine Premier League matches and comes into Gameweek 32 on the back of a three-week break, having been suspended for the FA Cup quarter-final defeat to Wolves.

His ability to play on either flank is a bonus, too, with Luke Shaw (£5.1m) an injury doubt and being only one yellow card away from a two-match ban.

You can read more on Young in our Gameweek 32 defenders piece.

Gonzalo Higuain (£9.6m)

FPL ownership: 4.3%

The jury remains very much out on Chelsea, Maurizio Sarri and Gonzalo Higuain (£9.6m) after yet another away-day loss in Gameweek 31.

The fact that only one of our Scout Squad panel selected Higuain as one of their five permitted forwards (and as a fifth-choice, to boot) summed up the lack of faith in the Argentinean striker among the Fantasy community at present.

At the time of writing, four other Chelsea assets – Eden Hazard (£10.9m), Cesar Azpilicueta (£6.3m), David Luiz (£5.9m) and Kepa Arrizabalaga (£5.4m) – were proving more popular buys ahead of Gameweek 32, as Fantasy managers (especially those using their Free Hit/Wildcard) mull over a possible defensive double-up for the Blues.

Three goals in seven Premier League starts is hardly a record to be excited about but the fact remains that Higuain is one of few premium options with two fixtures in Gameweek 32 who is still a genuine differential.

We’ve said on these pages over the past few weeks that Chelsea’s opposition over the next five days – Cardiff and Brighton – are the primary reason why we are currently interested in the Blues’ assets, rather than because of any form Sarri’s troops have demonstrated themselves.

On the positive side for Higuain, his three goals in a Chelsea shirt came in his only two meetings with sides in the bottom eight of the Premier League table: Fulham and Huddersfield.

Chelsea face another two of those clubs in Gameweek 32 and Cardiff’s record against the big six this season (played eight, lost eight) gives Sarri’s side the perfect chance to end their away-day blues.

Only Arsenal have kept fewer clean sheets than Brighton (one) in away matches this season, meanwhile.

The Argentinean striker’s underlying stats aren’t too bad either: he ranks second for attempts on goal and shots in the box and fourth for key passes when FPL forwards are filtered by their last six matches.

A lack of big chances either created or presented with is the obvious concern, although that is true of Chelsea as a whole and not just down to Higuain’s failings.

Game-time might also be a worry with Olivier Giroud (£7.7m) an alternative option up front but Higuain did start two matches in four days in Gameweeks 28 and 29 and the Frenchman has been restricted to substitute appearances and Europa League starts since the on-loan Juventus striker’s arrival.