Hazard’s expected goal stats still a worry despite double-digit haul

Our final Scout Notes article of Double Gameweek 32 concentrates on home wins for Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea.

Owners of premium forwards were left disappointed on Wednesday night but there were long-awaited returns for some well-owned midfielders at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea 3-0 Brighton and Hove Albion

• Goals: Olivier Giroud (£7.7m), Eden Hazard (£11.0m), Ruben Loftus-Cheek (£5.2m)
• Assists: Callum Hudson-Odoi (£4.2m), Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Eden Hazard

Maurizio Sarri’s supporter-appeasing starting XI comfortably saw off Brighton and Hove Albion at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday, with the Blues arguably producing their first convincing performance since Gameweek 28.

An injection of fresh blood certainly seemed to revitalise Sarri’s side, with Ruben Loftus-Cheek (£5.2m), Callum Hudson-Odoi (£4.2m) and Andreas Christensen (£5.0m) all playing their parts in what ended up as a feel-good victory for the hosts.

Sarri’s stubbornness has frustrated Chelsea fans this season, in particular his reluctance to start Hudson-Odoi and Loftus-Cheek in the top flight: this was Hudson-Odoi’s full Premier League debut and only Loftus-Cheek’s second start of 2018/19.

Whether or not these budget FPL midfielders can play a part in our Gameweek 33 plans and beyond is very much open to debate, however, given Sarri’s post-match words and the competition for places in their respective positions.

Asked if Hudson-Odoi, who played on the right flank against the Seagulls, would start again against West Ham on Monday night, Sarri said:

The best of Callum is on the left, the best of Hazard is on the left, the best of Willian is on the left, but I have only one left! I am sorry! So two of the three can play of course, but one has to adapt himself on the other side, as Callum did in this match for 80 minutes.

Sarri also had words of caution about Loftus-Cheek’s fitness, saying:

Loftus-Cheek for the first time in the season is without his problem with his back. In the last 20 days, he was able to have training every day. Today he played very well, he scored a wonderful goal.

After 75 minutes he had a little problem with his hamstring, nothing serious, only cramp I think, but tomorrow I want to be sure about the situation with his back because that is the big problem.

Sarri at least offered more encouraging words of praise for Hudson Odoi after full-time, adding:

As I said yesterday, Callum is ready to play in every match, also in the most difficult matches, because he has improved a lot during the season. I was sure about his performance, he played very well.

This match was very suitable for him. They usually defend very low and tight. He is able to start wide, and for him there was the possibility to play one against one 25 times in a match.

I am also really happy with him because he defended very well. For us it’s very important to have three offensive players able to defend, otherwise, the balance of the team is a problem. So tactically now he is ready.

The newly capped England international provided the assist for Olivier Giroud‘s (£7.7m) opening goal, producing some fine wing-play before crossing for the Frenchman to convert from close range.

No player on show supplied more key passes or crosses than Hudson-Odoi, who came close to scoring with a shot that was deflected just over by Shane Duffy (£4.7m) and a close-range header that he sent straight at Mathew Ryan (£4.4m).

The main Fantasy interest on Wednesday concerned Eden Hazard (£11.0m). Rested at Cardiff on Sunday, both he and N’Golo Kante (£5.0m) returned to the starting XI for this second Double Gameweek 32 fixture as Sarri made seven changes.

This initially threatened to be another frustrating night for the Belgian’s owners, with Hazard firing over his only chance of the first half (a very presentable half-volley) as Chelsea struggled to prise open Brighton’s resolute defence.

Giroud’s goal seemed to alleviate the tension at Stamford Bridge, though, and Hazard added a superb second just before the hour-mark after being teed up by Loftus-Cheek.

The roles were reversed for Chelsea’s third goal soon after, with Loftus-Cheek collecting the Belgian’s pass and curling in another unstoppable effort from distance.

Kante then ruined a second Hazard assist when ballooning over from close range on 69 minutes; having not created a single “big chance” in 2019 until Sunday, Hazard supplied three gilt-edged opportunities across his two Gameweek 32 appearances.

While a 14-point haul was satisfying for Hazard’s owners, this was another match without a big chance for the Belgian winger.

Much like in the Gameweek 30 draw with Wolves, Hazard had to produce a piece of individual brilliance to get on the scoresheet and his expected goals (xG) tally from Gameweek 26 onwards is inferior to 39 other FPL midfielders.

A home fixture against poor travellers in the shape of West Ham at least offers Hazard the chance to improve that statistic on Monday.

Home comforts are also encouraging for those who own Chelsea defenders going into Gameweek 33.

This was the Blues’ third clean sheet in four Premier League matches at Stamford Bridge and no team has conceded fewer goals, efforts on target or shots in the box when filtered by their last four home fixtures.

Kepa Arrizabalaga (£5.4m) will seldom have a quieter night and Brighton’s only real clear chance came deep in stoppage time, when Anthony Knockaert (£5.2m) sent an effort horribly wide after racing clear of the Chelsea defence.

Christensen replaced Antonio Rudiger (£5.9m) at centre-half and Sarri hailed the Dane’s contribution after the match:

I have to say another thing. We are talking about Callum and Ruben, but I was impressed by the performance of Christensen. I want to speak also about him. In the last period Christensen has played five or six matches really very well.

Pedro reportedly missed this game as a precaution but was sighted at the ground doing individual training work, while there was frustration for Gonzalo Higuain‘s (£9.6m) owners as he remained an unused substitute.

Giroud didn’t do his chances of more Premier League starts any harm and his link-up play with the midfielders around him was a stark contrast to the leaden performance that Higuain delivered in South Wales on Sunday.

Brighton blank this weekend due to the clash with the FA Cup semi-finals but there was again little to encourage investment heading into their Double Gameweeks of 34 and 35.

The Seagulls’ attack (which had offered little of quality against Southampton) was non-existent, with Florin Andone‘s (£5.0m) inclusion in the starting XI further evidence that Glenn Murray (£6.3m) is a considerable rotation risk for Brighton’s forthcoming doubles.

Chris Hughton also rotated his two full-backs for this encounter, while Solly March (£4.8m) limped out of the game in the first half.

Hughton said of his winger’s injury:

We’ll find out probably tomorrow. He said he felt his calf tightening a bit. We are hoping that he came off at the right time. He certainly hasn’t pulled it.

Hughton commented on his side’s display:

For good periods of the match, I thought we were very much in the game. They threatened a lot with the quality they’ve got but that’s exactly what they can do.

They just need moments where they can turn an opportunity into some brilliance. Certainly the second and third goals were top quality goals.

I was disappointed with the first one because it’s an area that we generally defend well, but when you’re up against that type of pace out wide, you can’t stop every cross.

If we were a good enough side to take the game to them, it would be wonderful to be in that position, but we’re not — I know the quality that we’ve got.

Chelsea XI (4-3-3): Kepa; Azpilicueta (Zappacosta 73′), Christensen, Luiz, Emerson; Kante, Jorginho, Loftus-Cheek (Kovacic 82′); Hudson-Odoi, Giroud, Hazard (Willian 84′).

Brighton and Hove Albion XI (4-3-3): Ryan; Bruno, Duffy, Dunk, Bong; Propper, Stephens, Bissouma; Jahanbaksh (Bernardo 75′), Andone (Murray 70′), March (Knockaert 31′).

Tottenham Hotspur 2-0 Crystal Palace

• Goals: Son Heung-min (£8.6m), Christian Eriksen (£9.2m)
• Assists: Christian Eriksen

Spurs recorded their first Premier League victory in almost two months as they saw off Crystal Palace at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

The Lilywhites, who were unlucky to lose at Liverpool on Sunday, deserved their victory against Palace but often appeared as if they were trying too hard in their new stadium, with no-one more desperate to score than a frantic-looking Harry Kane (£12.5m).

The England striker had seven attempts on goal but blanked for the second successive match, curling over the best of his opportunities when Dele Alli (£8.8m) had set him free behind the Eagles’ defence.

Kane was even denied an assist for his side’s second goal, with Christian Eriksen (£9.2m) pouncing on the loose ball after the premium Spurs striker was tackled in the visitors’ box.

Mauricio Pochettino acknowledged that there had been “pressure” of sorts for his side to get off to a winning start in their new home:

In football like in life you need to be brave, be confident in your quality and your skills and potential, and of course now it was a little bit pressure. I think the excitement, the motivation the atmosphere and energy that our fans relayed to us today make everything possible. The performance was good. 

The stats were encouraging for Spurs, though, and it was perhaps no surprise that they posed such a goal threat (26 shots to Palace’s five) with Kane, Alli, Eriksen and Son Heung-min (£8.6m) in a Premier League starting XI for the first time together since Gameweek 22 in mid-January.

Not one of those four players had an especially outstanding game but the natural understanding between that quartet was palpable, with Alli and Eriksen in particular linking up well early on.

Alli’s current Fantasy appeal is dented by the fact he is playing so deep at the moment, with Harry Winks (£5.5m) and Eric Dier (£4.7m) struggling with injury in recent weeks and having forced Mauricio Pochettino’s hand into playing Alli in a more restrained central midfield role.

Alli’s regression to a more orthodox central midfielder began quite a while ago, of course, and his minutes-per-chance average has slowly ebbed away over the last two seasons.

The England international’s underlying stats on Wednesday (two shots, three penalty box touches) were unsurprisingly the worst of the four Spurs players mentioned above.

While still short of his best, Eriksen seems to be benefitting from Alli’s return and again posted some eye-catching statistics – six shots, five key passes – in his more advanced role.

Eriksen was the top-scoring FPL player of Gameweek 32 and could have been on the scoresheet before he teed up Son’s opener, narrowly missing out on an Alli through-ball, being denied by a last-ditch Patrick van Aanholt (£5.5m) tackle and forcing Vicente Guaita (£4.2m) into a fine low stop all in the first half.

Son, starting a Spurs league game for the first time in a month, looked much fresher than he did before the international break and registered his first attacking return since Gameweek 26.

While there was some luck involved in his deflected 54th-minute strike, the Korean also carved out excellent chances that Danny Rose (£5.8m) and Jan Vertonghen (£5.9m) spurned in either half.

Having played on the left wing in the second half at Anfield on Sunday, Rose started in that advanced position last night but did little to suggest he is a long-term solution in that role.

Palace, who travel to Newcastle in Gameweek 33, were fairly disappointing and only threatened at either end of the game.

Jeffrey Schlupp‘s (£4.5m) shanked chance after two minutes was the Eagles’ only real serious attempt on goal in the first half and it wasn’t until the final five minutes that Hugo Lloris (£5.4m) was called into action, reacting well to keep out a van Aanholt cross/shot and then a low effort from Wilfried Zaha (£6.9m).

Substitute Christian Benteke (£6.5m), on for the isolated and anonymous Michy Batshuayi (£6.3m), also nodded wide late on.

Roy Hodgson said of his side’s display:

I thought that if we had just kept that a little bit longer to 0-0 or the 1-0 to just 10 or 15 minutes later, then maybe the last 15 or 20 minutes they would’ve had a little bit more concern for some of our attacking moves.

Lloris made two very good saves, one from Patrick van Aanholt and one from Wilfried Zaha – Christian Benteke almost scored with a header. So I think they would’ve been worried a little bit at 1-0 but at 2-0, I suppose, that margin gave them some comfort.

It has obviously been a great evening for them but we certainly played our part; no surrender and didn’t make life easy for them.

Tottenham Hotspur XI (4-4-2): Lloris; Trippier, Alderweireld, Vertonghen, Davies; Eriksen, Sissoko, Alli (Moura 82′), Rose (Winks 69′); Kane, Son (Wanyama 90+2′).

Crystal Palace XI (4-4-2): Guaita; Wan-Bissaka, Kelly, Tomkins, Van Aanholt; McArthur, Milivojevic, Kouyate (Townsend 79′), Schlupp; Batshuayi (Benteke 81′), Zaha.