What to expect from Leeds’ defence and attacking full-backs in FPL

Leeds United have the potential to offer some defensive returns upon their return to the Premier League, but much hangs in the balance ahead of 2020/21.

The Whites won promotion with some exciting full-back options and a possession-based game which could favour their centre-backs, but Fantasy managers still have plenty of unanswered questions.

What tactics will Marcelo Bielsa deploy in the top-flight? Which goalkeepers and centre-backs will still be at the club come September 12th?

We spoke to LeedsLive reporter Beren Cross, who has covered the entirety of Bielsa’s reign at Elland Road, to get the inside track and have taken a look at the Whites’ Championship-winning data.

What is Leeds’ clean sheet potential?

Leeds come into the Premier League with some potential for clean sheets in 2020/21, but we may have to wait and see how they adapt to life in the top flight.

That’s because their defensive credentials for the new season are reliant on several variables which are difficult to assess over the summer, specifically relating to the manager’s tactics, the future of key personnel and any transfer window recruitment.

“As with many title winners, United conceded the fewest goals in the Championship. Like Premier League viewers are used to see with Manchester City, the Whites were able to carve out many of their clean sheets from having such high possession numbers and dominating territory.” – Beren Cross

This style of play enabled Leeds to win the Championship with 22 clean sheets, five more than any other side. They also conceded just 35 goals in 2019/20, the lowest total in the league, averaging at 0.8 per game.

Unsurprisingly, it was Elland Road that helped the Whites to most of their defensive returns. They kept 13 of their clean sheets there (59.1%) and were breached just 14 times on their own turf. That’s four better than any other Championship club managed at home, and an average of 0.61 per game.

Naturally, Bielsa’s men weren’t quite as tight away from home but were still one of the second tier’s best defensive sides on the road in 2019/20.

No Championship side kept more away clean sheets than Leeds last season (nine), while only West Bromwich Albion (18) and Brentford (20) conceded fewer times than them on the road (21).

Furthermore, as you can see from the table above, Leeds come into the top-flight with the best Championship-winning defence since 2010/11, when QPR conceded just 32 goals on their way to the second-tier title.

Of the last 10 sides to win the Championship, only five (including Leeds) have done so with the best defence, so Bielsa’s men are certainly on the right side of history as far as defence is concerned.

Meanwhile, if we were to feed Leeds’ goals conceded tally into the average percentage increase between title-winning seasons and first in the Premier League, it predicts them being breached 52.5 times in 2020/21.

Based on the goals conceded tallies of top-flight sides in 2019/20, that would be a total similar to a mid-table Premier League club, certainly an achievable and realistic total considering how many times Newcastle (47) and Wolves (46) conceded in the first campaign after winning the Championship.

These numbers in isolation suggest that, if the factors mentioned below go in their favour, that Leeds could offer some clean sheet potential in the Premier League, certainly more than former champions Norwich last season.

As you can imagine, the reality is rarely as simple as that. You only have to look at the table above to see that while QPR have the best defence of the last 10 Championship winners, they also posted the worst percentage increase in goals conceded from that campaign to the next.

In Leeds’ case, we must consider the tough tactical decisions Bielsa has to make before the September start-date.

Dominating possession in the Championship is an entirely different ball-game to replicating that in the Premier League but it does sound as if Bielsa will have his players attempt it anyway. According to our Leeds contact, that means we are perhaps unlikely to see too many cagey affairs involving the Whites.

“As a team which likes to attack, United will leave gaps for the world’s best attackers to exploit, though. They will not be a defensively rigid, functional, pragmatic side like Sheffield United. Bielsa does not do ‘set up for a 0-0’.” – Beren Cross

Meanwhile, there remain questions over important individuals in Leeds’ defence, most notably the future of Ben White, who spent 2019/20 on loan from Brighton.

It is also tough to predict which of Kiko Casilla or Illan Meslier will be handed the number one goalkeeper jersey after the former was handed an eight-man batch for racism in February.

“Much depends on whether they get Ben White, star centre-back, back from Brighton & Hove Albion and how young goalkeeper Illan Meslier copes with the step up if experienced stopper Kiko Casilla remains out the picture.” – Beren Cross

Player-by-player

Kiko Casilla | Illan Meslier

• Position: Goalkeeper
• Starts: 36 | 10
• Substitute apps: 0 | 0
• Goals: 0 | 0
• Assists: 0 | 0

As already mentioned, the goalkeeper situation at Leeds is a rather uncertain one heading into 2020/21.

It was 33-year-old Kiko Casilla who started the 2019/20 campaign as the first-choice but missed the end of the season due to his racism ban.

Illan Meslier filled in admirably, starting each of the last 10 games of 2019/20 and keeping five clean sheets in the process.

However, given how much Leeds dominated the ball during their Championship title win, it is somewhat difficult to make detailed comparisons between Casilla and Meslier from a shot-stopping perspective.

The Whites faced an average of nine shots per game last season, the best of any team, so neither goalkeeper was called into action particularly often compared to the rest of the division.

Both Casilla and Meslier averaged two saves per match last season, with a staggering 39 goalkeepers producing more than that – such was Leeds’ control of proceedings when in possession.

Whoever gets the number one spot next season is likely to face more goal attempts than that in 2020/21 but it is difficult to determine how either shot-stopper will cope with that.

It is also difficult to separate the two based on what they offer Leeds when they have possession of the ball. Bielsa likes his goalkeeper to join in with that tactic much like Pep Guardiola asks of Ederson.

As a result, both goalkeepers finished the 2019/20 season inside the Championship’s top-three for accurate short passes per match among the division’s shot-stoppers. Casilla was the slightly better option with 19.1 for every 90 minutes he was on the pitch, Meslier just behind him on 18.6.

Therefore, if Leeds can control some games next season, as they have some practice of at a lower level, the role that the goalkeeper plays in making that happen could prove a potential source of bonus points.

Luke Ayling | Stuart Dallas

• Position: Left-back | Right-back
• Starts: 45 | 35
• Substitute apps: 0 | 2
• Goals: 5 | 4
• Assists: 3 | 4

“Luke Ayling and Stuart Dallas played as the team’s full-backs for much of the campaign. Theirs will be the first United prices I check when the game launches. While the clean sheets will surely diminish at a higher level, they may deliver the best value across the squad. Ayling has surety of starts at right-back. He delivered four goals and four assists. Whereas Dallas, a makeshift left-back, is likely to start the new campaign there, but may come under threat from more natural options. The Northern Ireland international has spent much of his career as a winger. If the game registers him as a defender, he may well become an out-of-position asset later in the season if Bielsa decides to push him forward.” – Beren Cross

There is a lot to like about the Whites’ full-backs ahead of the 2020/21 season, as you can see from what our Leeds reporter thinks of them.

Whether they can offer value to Fantasy managers will, of course, depend on how the pair are priced and, in Dallas’ case, whether he is classed as a defender or not.

In terms of separating the two from a Fantasy perspective, they represent the age-old dilemma for picking between two players.

Ayling is the much more nailed-on option in terms of starts, considering he is a natural right-back and the fact that Bielsa is unlikely to change things too much next season.

That may, of course, be something Dallas can boast as well, although he is not a recognised full-back based on his career thus far. Despite being slightly less certain of consistent starts for the whole campaign, the underlying data suggests Dallas can offer much more than Ayling going forward, which could be especially exciting if he were to play in a more advanced position later in the campaign.

The Northern Ireland international may have registered the same number of assists as Ayling in 2019/20 but he outperformed his full-back colleague when it came to key passes.

Dallas created 43 chances in last season, more than any other Leeds defender, even ahead of Ayling when we consider the slight disparity in game-time. It made for a key pass every 91.4 minutes compared to one every 109.5 for Ayling.

The quality of Dallas’ delivery is also worth noting. In 2019/20, he produced 11 big chances for his team-mates, only attacking midfielders Pablo Hernández (13) and Jack Harrison (17) managing to create more across the season.

The makeshift left-back also offered a greater goal threat when compared with Ayling. His total of 32 shots in the box was the most of any Leeds defender last season, 12 more than his right-back colleague.

Crucially, 10 of these were considered to be big chances by Opta, the joint-third highest total in the whole squad. Only Harrison and leading goal-scorer Patrick Bamford were afforded more high-quality opportunities.

Finally, Dallas was incredibly accurate in the shot too. He registered a total of 26 shots on target in 2019/20, the second-best tally in the whole squad, bested only by Bamford (56).

That’s the dilemma that faces anyone considering a Leeds full-back. Ayling is more assured of his place while Dallas carries slightly more risk with potentially greater rewards, considering his attacking credentials and experience playing further up the field.

Ben White | Liam Cooper

• Position: Centre-back
• Starts: 46 | 36
• Substitute apps: 0 | 2
• Goals: 1 | 2
• Assists: 2 | 0

The centre-back position is another department of Leeds’ defence that hangs in the balance ahead of the new season.

The future of Ben White is likely to dictate whether or not the Whites can offer clean sheets in 2019/20, the Brighton loanee top for clearances (122), blocks (25), interceptions (118) and recoveries (301) among Leeds players last season.

But the centre-back also played a crucial role in Leeds’ domination of possession, as did nailed-on colleague Liam Cooper.

Both players were top for passes and accurate passes among Bielsa’s squad in 2019/20. It was White at the summit of both charts, attempting 2,582 passes with 2,184 of them reaching their intended target.

Cooper was in second place for both statistics, 1,940 of his 2,367 attempted passes finding their way to a Leeds team-mate.

Somewhat similar to the goalkeepers mentioned above, such impressive passing statistics could be an important factor in bonus points if Leeds were able to control some games and keep clean sheets next season, although they will still have to compete for those with the very capable full-backs and attackers, of course.

Out of the two centre-backs who helped Leeds to the title, it is
Cooper who offers the slightly greater threat in the box. He registered 21 shots there compared to White’s 15, despite playing fewer minutes. That meant a goal attempt in the area every 148.9 minutes for Cooper and one every 276 there for White, while neither played more than nine key passes.

Brighton have been rather bullish over White’s status during the summer though, and it is likely to be a saga that winds on for the duration of the transfer window.

Manager Graham Potter has insisted the centre-back is one of their players, that he is ready for Premier League football and will be competing for a place in the Seagulls’ squad in 2020/21. Meanwhile, the club’s CEO Paul Barber recently issued a ‘not for sale’ statement on the player. Perhaps then, Leeds’ best chances of securing White’s services for the new season lie in the loan market.

“He’s contracted with us and he’s on loan at Leeds. He’s our player. It’s fantastic he’s had this year with Leeds. I think everybody won. Ben got some great experience, Leeds achieved their goal of promotion. But we rate him highly. I followed his career personally when he was at Newport and Peterborough. As I’ve said before, we were aware of him at Swansea, we were probably trying to sign him ourselves if we were still there. We like him a lot. He’s a really good player and thankfully he’s our player. (Next season) he’ll be competing for a place like everyone else.” – Graham Potter, speaking in July

Best players by position:

• Goalkeepers: Budget
• Goalkeepers: Premium
• Defenders: Budget
• Defenders: Mid-Price and Premium
• Midfielders: Budget
• Midfielders: Mid-Price
• Midfielders: Premium
• Forwards: Budget
• Forwards: Mid-Price
• Forwards: Premium