How important is team value in FPL and when are early transfers advisable?

Our new FPL Masterclass series unites three of the best Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers around: two-time India champion Lateriser, seven-time top 10k finisher Zophar and five-time top 1,000 finisher Tom Freeman.

Between them, they have 20 overall ranks in the top 10,000, nine of which were within the top 1k.

They’ll be chipping in with regular Fantasy advice ahead of the start of 2021/22, with opinion on everything from tips for newcomers to captaincy picks.

You can also see Zophar and Lateriser on the FPL Wire podcast, the latest instalment of which can be viewed below:

Our trio of top managers will be writing for Fantasy Football Scout every week throughout the new season – and only subscribers will be able to read all of their articles in full.

Having previously provided general advice for FPL managers ahead of the upcoming campaign, discussed proven assets v Fantasy gambles and mused on the importance of a strong bench, our panel are now asked: how important is team value and do you like to wait before making transfers?

TOM SAID…

My advice would be: don’t get too obsessed with team value. And if you don’t feel ready to make a transfer, certainly don’t let a price change force your hand. If you are making good decisions, which often takes time, team value tends to take care of itself.

However, if you do have a definite move planned out in your head, there is no harm in moving in early, just ensure that you have a decent first substitute in place. In this situation, I’d feel more confident if the player doesn’t play again before the next deadline. It gets a bit more complicated if he is involved in European competition or a domestic cup, and if that’s the case, the risk factor does rise a bit.

I like making most of my transfers on a Friday night, once I’ve watched all of the midweek games, taken in all of the press conferences and processed the team news. Another key reason, and perhaps the most important of all, is that I tend to make better decisions later in the week, when I’ve given myself enough time to think.

Losing £0.1m here and there won’t define your season, and remember, there is always a solution!

ZOPHAR SAID…

I think the importance of team value varies from season to season. The year that Leicester City won the league, we had money to burn with the likes of Riyad Mahrez and Jamie Vardy performing like premiums with a budget price tag. 

Generally speaking though, I think building team value is quite important, especially in the first half of the season. Early doors, more players are active and you see the early bandwagons often going up £0.3m in price between Gameweeks. The player you want to sell could be dropping by £0.2m, so in these cases, there is a massive price swing. 

Last year was a bit different with COVID so I used to wait till the last possible minute before making my transfers as we didn’t know which teams/players would test positive. Usually, if a player I want is going up in price and doesn’t have a midweek European fixture, I tend to buy him on the Monday/Tuesday. I refuse to make any transfers until the Gameweek is completed at the least, as you might end up having other fires to put out and your budget could completely change. 

If there is no price rise for a player or I see only a possible £0.1m increase in the week, I prefer to wait for the managers’ press conference on a Friday. Information is everything in FPL and we often get clues about team selection and strategy from head coaches. It’s not just information, it’s also your own thought process that gets time to settle. Very often, the player I want on a Friday is very different to the one I wanted earlier in the week. There is less chance of a kneejerk emotional reaction or chasing points and I can consider what I have seen in the European matches and eliminate any biases that might have crept into my decision-making. 

LATERISER SAID…

I was very much against making early transfers and building team value last season but 2020/21 was definitely the anomaly. It was a year in which the world was in lockdown and there were a lot of last-minute cases of games being postponed or players not being available for matches.

It is not going to be the case with me this season – COVID permitting. I feel that, for the first half of the season, building team value is important and if you are sure about what move to make, it is fine to finalise it early in the Gameweek. It also helps with peace of mind and not over-complicating things.

In the second half of the season, though, rotation kicks in and it is best to wait until you make your transfers because the number of weeks in which the built-team value will be an advantage will keep reducing.

I’m not overly worried about team value, however. For me, if you’re not building team value, it only means that you need to find a bargain relative to the competition in just one position and I’ll always back myself to do that. And one thing you need to be sure about is that you’re not transferring players in simply because their value is increasing.

Once you have zeroed in on a player, monitor the price change websites and make the transfer early if the player is expected to rise in value and if the player you are selling is expected to fall.