The FPL Watchlist: Who are the best medium-term player picks?

With just six Gameweeks of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) to go before the World Cup break, now’s a good time to be looking at the last batch of medium-term targets before we are all handed unlimited transfers.

Unlike the Scout Picks, which focuses exclusively on the very next Gameweek, our Watchlist picks out the players who are the best targets over four to six Gameweeks based on fixtures, form and value.

ABOUT THE WATCHLIST

In our Watchlist, which is visible on the sidebar, the initial focus is on the next four Gameweeks but anything up to six weeks is factored in.

Players are selected and ranked according to factors such as form, club injuries, forthcoming fixtures and whether or not the player in question is likely to be a bargain in FPL.

We typically toe the line with FPL’s definition of ‘form’ (average points accrued in matches played over the last 30 days) but allowances are sometimes made for players coming back from injury.

The key for the factors you’ll see in the below tables is as follows:

Arrows before the name indicate whether a player has climbed or fallen in our reckoning since the previous update or if they are a new entry into the tables.

THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL GOALKEEPERS

The annus horribilis for goalkeepers continued in Gameweek 10 with only three clean sheets recorded. Not a single shot-stopper features among FPL’s top 20 points-scorers, with Nick Pope (£5.3m) leading the way in the begloved brotherhood despite failing to keep a clean sheet in six of his last seven matches.

Pope had been topping our Watchlist for quite some time but we’ve got a new shot-stopper climbing to the summit this week.

Kepa Arrizabalaga (£4.4m) is the new number one, both at Chelsea and on our Watchlist.

We still have to be cautious around the Spaniard, given Graham Potter’s reputation for tinkering and the fact that Edouard Mendy (£4.9m) was injured for the first two matches of his new manager’s tenure.

But Kepa has now seen off Mendy’s challenge in the last three competitive fixtures and is the only member of the Blues backline to start all five competitive games under Potter, so a relative security of starts – we can’t rule out Potter doing what Thomas Tuchel did and giving his back-up goalkeeper the odd appearance – is also in his favour amid the rotation elsewhere.

For £0.9m less than Pope, we’re getting a (presumed) first-choice goalkeeper with slightly better fixtures over the next six Gameweeks.

Chelsea have also kept three clean sheets in a row at home and abroad, while their expected goals conceded (xGC) tallies in their four competitive matches since the international break are 0.48, 1.11 (the much-changed team v Wolves), 0.39 and 0.44.

Jose Sa (£5.0m) also re-enters the fray, though not too high up given the uncertainty over the identity of the new Wolverhampton Wanderers manager and any new tactical ideas the incoming head coach might have. Wolves are joint-third-best for fewest big chances conceded this season and our Rate My Team points projections have him as third among goalkeepers from Gameweeks 11-16.

Vicente Guaita (£4.5m) remains high up ahead of Crystal Palace’s ticker-topping run of fixtures; the Eagles had a tough old start to the season in terms of matches but their underlying defensive numbers are moving in the right direction since the international break and they face five of the division’s seven lowest scorers from Gameweeks 12-16. There is that nagging doubt over a benching out of the blue, something that happened on occasion last season, although niggling fitness issues were partly to blame in 2021/22.

There’s not much changing elsewhere, with David Raya (£4.5m) and Bernd Leno (£4.5m) just about hanging on to their places low down the list thanks to some favourable fixtures and their propensity to make saves: the former can’t be beaten for save points in 2022/23, while the latter is making more saves per 90 minutes than any other goalkeeper.

Ederson (£5.5m), a rotation-free route into the league’s best defence, will inevitably rise up the table once the next two Gameweeks are out of the way, although just how much he appeals when Messrs Cancelo, Foden/De Bruyne and Haaland offer a more explosive City triple-up is another question.

THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL DEFENDERS

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