The FPL Watchlist: Who are the best medium-term player picks?

With the Gameweek 13 deadline of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) almost here, we’re bringing you a mini-update of the Watchlist as we again run through who we think are the best medium-term targets.

We’re only looking at the next four Gameweeks in this piece, as FPL managers will all be handed unlimited transfers over the World Cup break and there is no need to plan beyond Gameweek 16 at present.

Fixtures, form and value are all considered in our below rankings.

THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL GOALKEEPERS

It’s not often we get a save-collecting, £4.5m ‘big six’ goalkeeper in FPL so the in-form Kepa Arrizabalaga keeps his place at the top of the Watchlist despite a mixed bag of fixtures over the next four Gameweeks. Our Rate MyTeam (RMT) points projections tool has him as the best ‘value’ goalkeeper over this period.

Jordan Pickford (£4.5m) and Vicente Guaita (£4.5m) play for two teams at the top of our Season Ticker in Gameweeks 13-16 but some middling-to-poor underlying defensive numbers for Everton and Palace keep them off top spot. Can fixtures breed form or are we being sold a pup by the favourable schedules?

Alisson‘s (£5.4m) good fixtures and his placing at the top of RMT’s points projections in Gameweeks 13-16 are reflected in his rise, despite the knowledge that many FPL managers prefer a cheaper model.

The splodge of red in Gameweek 16 may be a deterrent for prospective owners of David Raya (£4.5m) but the goalkeeper who has made more saves than any other Premier League custodian should rack up plenty of stops at the Etihad, and before then are three meetings against the league’s lowest scorers.

Slipping down and almost out of view are three mid-price picks, the most notable of which is Nick Pope (£5.3m). Tough-looking clashes with Spurs and Chelsea book-end his four-match fixture run, while he hasn’t collected a save point since Gameweek 6: are Newcastle’s league-best defence doing too good a job?

THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL DEFENDERS

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Kieran Trippier (£5.7m) slips marginally for the same reason as Pope but after the leading chance creator among defenders delivered attacking returns to compensate for three previous clean sheet losses, who would put it past him to repeat the trick in Gameweeks 13 and 16.

The division’s three best defences for minutes per expected goals conceded (xGC) take the podium in our above Watchlist, with Joao Cancelo (£7.3m) rising to the summit: Manchester City are one of three sides to avoid a big-six club from now until Gameweek 16, with the other two, Everton and Palace, represented by potential sub-£4.5m bargains in the form of James Tarkowski (£4.4m) and Marc Guehi (£4.4m). Again, reservations about their two teams’ defensive aptitude stop them from being higher.

With William Saliba (£5.1m) walking the suspension tightrope on four yellow cards, we’ve gone for Gabriel Magalhaes (£5.1m) as our Arsenal pick; RMT has him as better value even than Ben White (£4.5m) over the next four Gameweeks, although there’s precious little in it and the latter could easily have been included here.

The defender sitting in second behind Trippier for chances created, Aaron Cresswell (£4.8m), has three appealing home fixtures coming up and plays for a West Ham defence that boasts the fifth-best xGC tally in the division this season.

Virgil van Dijk (£6.4m) is someone we’re sticking with for now over the more sexy Liverpool full-back picks, as the spectre of rotation looms over Gameweek 13 and the Dutchman is, 99% of the time, a nailed starter.

THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL MIDFIELDERS

There’s a surge of Manchester City and Arsenal assets up the above Watchlist, all four of whom feature among the top five midfielders for non-penalty expected goal involvement (NPxGI) in 2022/23.

Mohamed Salah (£12.8m) just about holds on to top spot, with the possibility of a run-out centrally against Nottingham Forest on Saturday something we’re clinging onto as names like Miguel Almiron (£5.3m) coast past him in the FPL points table. Salah is, it has to be said, still top above even the City and Arsenal midfielders for NPxGI and has yet to benefit from a spot-kick this season.

Penalty-taking/missing talismans with good fixtures, Wilfried Zaha (£7.5m) and Jarrod Bowen (£8.2m), still feature prominently in our thoughts despite being overtaken by Phil Foden (£8.4m) et al in the Watchlist but they struggle to compete with these Arsenal and City options for underlying ‘xGI’ numbers and duly drop.

Son Heung-min (£11.8m), who has blanked in eight of his 11 run-outs, and Mason Mount (£7.7m) tumble down the standings: Chelsea now face four sides who are top-half material for xGC.

Leandro Trossard (£6.9m) makes way completely, with Manchester City and Chelsea up next.

THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL FORWARDS

There’s no movement in the top five, with Ivan Toney‘s (£7.4m) flirtation with a one-match ban for yellow card accumulation and Darwin Nunez‘s (£8.8m) unknown fitness status and well-known rotation risk tag keeping them below Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.8m), who has the two Manchester clubs careering into view.

Gabriel Jesus (£8.0m) is relatively low down for the same reason as Toney, plus the fact that there are two cheaper Arsenal midfielders to plump for as an alternative route into a potent Gunners attack.

RMT has Odsonne Edouard (£5.4m) as the best-value forward over the next four Gameweeks thanks to Palace’s fixture run, although the rotation risk tag has followed the Eagles’ strikers around ever since Patrick Vieira took charge.

Edouard climbs above Dominic Solanke (£5.8m), whose guaranteed minutes and favourable fixtures were a great boon in the busy Gameweek 11-13 period but whose appeal is dented by the return to a one-game-a-week schedule for most clubs and two tough-looking meetings with London clubs for the Cherries up next. Both Solanke and Bournemouth’s xG totals remain dismal, too.

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