How well do newly-promoted Premier League sides start?

In the end, the top three teams in the 2022/23 Championship table all achieved the success of promotion.

It resulted in an immediate bounce-back for Burnley, with Sheffield United returning after a two-year absence and Luton Town’s play-off success bringing them Premier League football for the first time.

• READ MORE: Analysis of Burnley’s manager, plus their defence (attack coming tomorrow)
• READ MORE: Analysis of Sheffield United’s manager, plus their defence and attack.
• READ MORE: Analysis of Luton Town’s manager, plus their defence and attack.

Once the celebrations have died down and pre-season optimism moves aside, we’ve seen contrasting fortunes for such new sides in the top flight.

With Fantasy Premier League (FPL) in mind, let’s check how recent campaigns have begun for newly promoted clubs.

2022/23

It was a chaotic beginning for Bournemouth, having conceded the most goals (18) of everyone’s first six matches whilst also keeping two clean sheets. The 9-0 hammering at Liverpool brought Scott Parker’s tenure to an end, as Gary O’Neil stepped into the dugout.

Yet a good Fulham start laid the foundations for their strong season that ended in tenth place. Only Erling Haaland scored more often than Aleksandar Mitrovic‘s six times, with the Serbian forward collecting 39 points in these half-dozen Gameweeks.

Play-off victors Nottingham Forest were back in the top flight for the first time since 1999. Early results were mixed but loanee goalkeeper Dean Henderson was already on two penalty saves by Gameweek 4. Soon peaking at 1.43 million FPL ownership, his season ended with a January injury but it was a happier conclusion for all three teams, each avoiding relegation.

2021/22

It wasn’t the case in 2021/22, when Norwich and Watford dropped straight back into the Championship. The Canaries lost their first six matches and were winless until Gameweek 11, making little impact on the FPL game.

At least the Hornets started with some fight, beating Aston Villa on the opening day. Ismaila Sarr scored that afternoon and his four goals and 39 points were the best of all promoted players after six outings. Just one more goal arrived for him.

However, Premier League debutants Brentford immediately adapted well to this new world and have finished 13th and ninth in their two campaigns. After beating Arsenal in the Friday night season opener, they bagged nine points and three clean sheets in their first six, with Ethan Pinnock on 36 points and Ivan Toney off the mark thanks to two goals and two assists.

2020/21

Meanwhile, this September-starting season also saw two of the trio go straight back down. Fulham failed to deliver a win or clean sheet early on, as both themselves and West Bromwich Albion joined Liverpool in conceding a league-high 14 goals.

Mitrovic netted twice in a 4-3 loss at Leeds United, as West Brom’s Matheus Pereira racked up the first of his five double-digit hauls.

But the stars were from Marcelo Bielsa’s men, who started as they meant to go on by being on both sides of seven-goal thrillers in the opening fortnight. Although Stuart Dallas hadn’t yet exploded and Raphinha wasn’t around for the first few, it quickly became clear that £5.5m forward Patrick Bamford was going to be a bargain. He scored six times during this period, ending with 28 goal involvements and 194 points.

2019/20

An even more iconic bargain came from 2019/20’s promoted batch. John Lundstram was priced as a £4.0m FPL defender despite playing in central midfield, with a goal, assist, two clean sheets and 34 points locked in by Gameweek 6. Soon after, the Sheffield United asset recorded a 21-point return against Burnley and helped the Blades’ superb defence secure a ninth-placed finish.

Aston Villa also picked up two early clean sheets, although Jack Grealish started quietly. In fact, it was Norwich City who provided bargain attackers to FPL managers.

They were scoring and conceding plenty, as £6.5m Teemu Pukki and £4.5m Todd Cantwell accumulated eight goals and four assists in this spell.

2018/19

Yet neither Sheffield United, Leeds nor Fulham bettered the campaign of Wolverhampton Wanderers. Armed with Raul Jimenez, Matt Doherty, Diogo Jota and Ruben Neves, they only lost one of their first six matches – aided by two clean sheets – and went on to finish seventh. The other two were relegated.

As with Bournemouth’s 2022/23 start, Cardiff City conceded the most often despite two successful shut-outs. Behind their defence was stopper Neil Etheridge and his 16-point return versus Newcastle United in Gameweek 2.

Then, once again, goals came in for Fulham’s Mitrovic. This time it was on five early occasions, netting four inside the first three.

LOOKING AHEAD

Only once in Premier League history have all three promoted sides instantly been relegated – 1997/98 – and the recent pattern seems to be that one of them will have a comfortable mid-table season.

It’s hard to confidently say which of Burnley, Sheffield United or Luton will do so this time.

Vincent Kompany’s side boasted the Championship’s best defence and have attacking full-backs in Connor Roberts and – if he arrives permanently from Chelsea – Ian Maatsen. Top scorer Nathan Tella was also only there on loan but Manuel Benson, Jay Rodriguez and Anass Zaroury also piled up the returns.

Elsewhere, the Blades use the same 3-5-2 formation as they did in their brilliant 2019/20 campaign, with Anel Ahmedhodzic and Iliman Ndiaye standing out as options with potential. Luton’s current squad has barely any Premier League experience but both Alfie Doughty and Carlton Morris could prove to be handy names depending on their initial prices.

The key for FPL managers is to closely observe pre-season and be ready to pounce on any emerging Lundstrams, Bamfords and Dohertys.

In terms of general trends, a dozen of the last 15 promoted clubs (80%) have been ranked 13th or below for xGC in the first six Gameweeks. Seven of them have been inside the bottom three.

As for xG, there’s a similar record of 12 of the 15 most-recent promoted sides ranking 12th or below for xG – but only four have been in the ‘relegation zone’ for that stat.

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