The FPL Watchlist: Gameweek 30 update

Our Watchlist has been given a refresh ahead of Gameweek 30.

Since the last update, we’ve had confirmation of the fixtures in Double Gameweek 34. By extension, we know who is likely to double in Gameweeks 35-37.

It’s difficult to come up with a cover-all list as some Fantasy managers will be playing a Free Hit in Gameweek 34. Others may be Wildcarding in Gameweek 35. Each of us will have different transfer targets depending on our chip strategy.

So here, we’re mostly looking at the next six Gameweeks in isolation. But while that is the primary focus, we do give a nod to players and teams who we know will double – eg Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur – beyond this window.

MORE ABOUT THE WATCHLIST

In this article series, we’re looking at the stand-out players over the medium term.

This is in contrast to the Scout Picks, which deals only in the upcoming Gameweek.

We rank players according to factors such as club injuries, form (last four Gameweeks), underlying numbers, forthcoming fixtures, Rate My Team’s points projections and whether or not the player in question is likely to be a bargain in FPL.

Arrows before the name indicate whether a player has increased in appeal or fallen in our reckoning since the previous Gameweek or if they are a new entry.

The key for the factors you’ll see in the below tables is as follows:

THE WATCHLIST: GOALKEEPERS

Our one and two are Rate My Team‘s top-value goalkeeper over the next six Gameweeks and the highest projected scorer.

Jordan Pickford (£4.6m) and David Raya (£5.0m) double in Gameweek 34, as do the three goalkeepers trailing in their wake.

There’s no Caoimhin Kelleher (£3.8m), though. While he is a great short-term selection, there is talk that Alisson (£5.7m) is on a collision course with a mid-April return – just before Double Gameweek 34.

Back to Pickford, and taking the liberty to slightly extend the Watchlist lookahead, Everton face five of the bottom six between Gameweek 32-37 (the Toffees themselves are the other team!).

Sean Dyche’s side are ranked sixth for the lowest expected goals conceded (xGC) tally this season, all the more impressive considering the fixture run they’ve just been on:

Raya’s Arsenal, of course, boss many of the underlying defensive number tables. First for most clean sheets, fewest goals conceded and lowest xGC.

The flip side is that the Gunners’ fixtures aren’t as good as Everton’s: trips to Manchester City and Spurs bookend the upcoming six-Gameweek run. They’ve already shut out City once this season, however, so if you’re capable of that, B-listers like Brighton, Wolves and Chelsea aren’t going to instil much fear.

Elsewhere, Dean Henderson (£4.4m) enters the Watchlist after Sam Johnstone (£4.4m) was ruled out for the season.

Outside of the top five, Djorde Petrovic (£4.5m) and Andre Onana (£4.8m) are two of the key targets for those on a Gameweek 30/31 Wildcard and Gameweek 34 Free Hit. Both face Sheffield United and Burnley before we get to their doubles, too.

THE WATCHLIST: DEFENDERS

With Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.5m) set to return in Gameweeks 32/33 to threaten Conor Bradley’s (£4.2m) minutes, and Andrew Robertson (£6.4m) currently dealing with a very short-term injury, good old reliable Virgil van Dijk (£6.5m) is our Liverpool defender of choice.

FPL’s leading defender for shots in the box this season, van Dijk is about as nailed as they come even in busy fixture periods. Liverpool enjoy arguably the best-looking double in Gameweek 34, with some favourable matches around it.

The Reds are second only to Gabriel Magalhaes‘ (£5.3m) Arsenal for clean sheets and fewest goals conceded.

Gameweek 34 doublers Rayan Ait-Nouri (£4.5m), Jarrad Branthwaite (£4.2m), Illia Zabarnyi (£4.5m) and Daniel Munoz (£4.5m) follow.

Zabarnyi and the budget-friendly Branthwaite have some sporadically good fixtures but pose limited goal threat. It’s the other way around with the attack-minded Munoz, who faces Liverpool and Man City immediately before his double.

Ait–Nouri arguably strikes the best balance. Wolves face four of the bottom eight from Gameweeks 31-35. Ait–Nouri, meanwhile, has created eight chances and had six shots in his last six run-outs alone. There’s a chance we might see him even further forward, too, given Wolves’ current injury crisis. In the second half of the FA Cup quarter-final against Coventry City, for example, he was moved into an even more advanced role. He ended up having seven shots in that game.

Jamaal Lascelles (£3.9m) looks set for more game time in the run-in after Sven Botman (£4.5m) was ruled out for the rest of the season. Newcastle’s underlying defensive numbers have deteriorated to the point where Fantasy managers may not want any significant outlay on Eddie Howe’s side, so at least Lascelles doesn’t break the bank.

The Magpies, along with Diogo Dalot‘s (£5.2m) Manchester United, Malo Gusto‘s (£4.2m) Chelsea and Pedro Porro‘s (£5.9m) Spurs, all look set to double in Gameweek 37. The Lilywhites blanking in Gameweek 34 shunts Porro down a bit in our subjective standings but just to reinforce the point we made in the introduction, that’s not an issue if you’re using a Free Hit in that Gameweek.

THE WATCHLIST: MIDFIELDERS

Mohamed Salah (£13.1m) and Bukayo Saka (£9.1m) will be forming the backbone of many Gameweek 31 squads, if not this week. Something to play for in the form of a title race? Check. Rarely rested by their respective managers? Check? Elite underlying numbers? Check. A double in Gameweek 34 and some decent fixtures around it? Check.

Sandwiched by Salah and Saka for points per start this season are Cole Palmer (£5.8m) and Son Heung–min (£10.1m). Both will really come into their own from Gameweeks 35-37, when Chelsea and Spurs double twice. But it’s important not to lose track of what comes before, too. They are the third and fourth top midfielders for projected points over the next four Gameweeks, for instance, even ahead of Saka. Chelsea face three of the bottom five, while Spurs entertain strugglers Luton and Nottingham Forest and clash with West Ham and Newcastle, who are in the bottom six for xGC in 2023/24. Not bad fixtures at all, even if Gameweek 34 is a blot on both their copybooks.

Pablo Sarabia (£4.7m) leads the charge for the Gameweek 34 budget doublers. Given a minutes boost thanks to injuries to Wolves’ first-choice front three, he’s also on set plays at Molineux. His key pass frequency (one every 32 minutes) is only bettered by five players (minimum 1,000 minutes) over the season.

• READ MORE: FPL Gameweek 30 differentials: Richarlison, Hojlund + Sarabia

With the Double Gameweek blinkers well and truly off, Bryan Mbeumo (£6.7m) reemerges onto the radar. He’s averaging the same points per match as Phil Foden (£8.1m) this season, albeit now losing penalties to Ivan Toney (£8.2m).

Without a double Brentford may be but this run here is stupendously good. Quality over quantity springs to mind.

THE WATCHLIST: FORWARDS

Once again, the Gameweek 34 doublers – Dominic Solanke (£7.2m), Darwin Nunez (£7.5m), Matheus Cunha (£5.5m) and Jean Philippe Mateta (£4.9m) – get a bump as Blank Gameweek 29 targets like Toney and Ollie Watkins (£9.0m) slide just a little.

Solanke and Cunha have the advantage over Darwin in that they are likely to be rotation-proof nearer Gameweek 34, although the fit-again Cunha may be gradually reintroduced into the Wolves XI this week after time out with a hamstring injury. Once he’s up and running, there’ll be little doubt over his minutes – something we can’t say about Darwin, especially when Diogo Jota (£8.0m) returns.

Watkins won’t be an easy sell for many but with no doubles to come, and Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool still to play in the next eight Gameweeks, there’s logic behind lowering him here.

Ahead of Solanke, Darwin, Watkins and even Erling Haaland (£14.3m) for shots in the box over the last six matches is Rodrigo Muniz (£4.6m). Fulham are top of the ticker for fixtures around (but not including) Double Gameweeks 34/37; another example of a team we could easily neglect in the final two months due to ‘double’ myopia.

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