Where did all the clean sheets go in 2023/24?

During the 2023/24 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) season, the 157 clean sheets recorded – at a rate of 4.1 per Gameweek – were 50 fewer than the previous campaign’s 207.

The 15 seasons between 2007/08 and 2021/22 averaged 216 of them.

So this latest total is an outlier, being over four standard deviations below the medium-term average. The probability of such an extreme reading – high or low – is 0.0013% if you were selecting from a normally distributed sample.

Maybe next season reverts back towards 200 clean sheets, or maybe this will be the new normal. After all, there are tactical and financial trends, changes to how matches are refereed and fixture congestion to consider.

• READ MORE: Vote for the best FPL defenders of 2023/24

Matches are lasting longer, although not by much. The 2023/24 average of 101 minutes and 39 seconds is only 5.5% higher than the 2017/18 average of 96 minutes and 22 seconds. Yet there have been a disproportionate number of late goals.

*Includes added time

Will a backlash against VAR reduce added time and goals? Will the clubs’ analysts address such worsening defensive statistics? And will the financial disparities between top, middle and bottom-tier teams continue to grow? All this is for debate but in this article, the focus is on identifying where the reduction has been focused and what that suggests for our FPL teams next season.

CLEAN SHEET BREAKDOWN

Here the league is split into three groups, based on clean sheet totals: the top four teams, the next eight and the bottom eight. This doesn’t completely correlate with final league positions but there’s a significant overlap.

The 50 fewer clean sheets compared to 2022/23 are split as follows:

From this, we see that most of the reduction comes from the worst eight defences, whilst there were only five fewer clean sheets amongst the best four. Although 2022/23 was representative of the preceding 15 years for the middle and bottom eight groups, the decline in clean sheets had already started for the leading four.

That combined 59 was already lower than any season between 2007/08 and 2021/22, where the average had been 67.8. So this latest campaign’s total is a whopping 13.8 below that. With it being a group of only four teams rather than eight, that reduction looks more significant.

Overall, every team is seeing a reduction in shut-outs. The top teams started their decline a year earlier and the bottom teams saw a particularly radical drop.

HOME AND AWAY RECORDS

AT HOME

The top four teams dropped to only 28 clean sheets and the previous 33 were already the lowest on record. As with the overall totals, the 2022/23 season represented the preceding 15 seasons for the middle and bottom eight teams. Therefore, drops were significant.

WHEN AWAY

From the best four backlines, the away clean sheet totals remain in line with the period going back to 2007/08. Looking at the middle eight, such rate is lower than the middle-term average of 38 but this season’s drop-off was more noticeable in home games.

Meanwhile, the worst eight’s numbers are lower but not quite the lowest on record – the 13 of 2010/11. These have always provided bench players though, even in better defensive times.

HISTORICAL COMPARISONS

Here are the three groups for 2023-24:

Above, where totals are the same, allocating a team to one of these groups is arbitrary. Although that affects the home and away totals, this will have to suffice.

In 2023/24, a team with ten clean sheets snuck into the best four. Previously, 10 clean sheets signalled a mid-table defence and in five seasons such teams were inside the worst eight. 2020/21 was the most recent of these, where even a side with 11 was grouped here.

A team with seven clean sheets headed the latest ‘bottom eight’. Usually, you’d have to pick from relegated clubs to not beat that total.

We’re a world away from 2008/09’s total of 247 clean sheets. This featured a 15-match run for a Nemanja Vidic-inspired Manchester United, as they ended on 24 of them. It didn’t stop there though. Chelsea (22), Liverpool (20) and Everton (17) were part of a different landscape, where 4-5-1 and 5-4-1 were viable formations.

CONCLUSION

In this author’s opinion, the low number of ‘worst eight’ clean sheets has killed off the appeal of their attacking defenders. Take Alfie Doughty‘s two goals and ten assists. With so few shut-outs, it only contributed to 101 points – beaten by 22 other defenders.

The drop-off in home clean sheets for the middle eight teams is significant and reduces their potential.

The top four defensive teams were worse at home than any previous season but are maintaining performance away. This was largely down to Arsenal and Manchester City contributing 26% of the league’s 68 away clean sheets.

If pricing remains soft, I recommend owning two Arsenal and one Man City defender to play regardless of fixture. Joško Gvardiol seems like the obvious pick but rotation is unlikely to disappear. Soft pricing will allow at least one good backup option from a mid-table or higher team.

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