FPL Q&A: Saka v Salah, budget forwards + one-week punts

Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his usual weekly FPL Q&A ahead of Gameweek 5.

The topics include whether there’s still appeal in one-week pre-Wildcard punts, if Bukayo Saka (£10.0m) is worth having over Mohamed Salah (£12.7m) and some of the best Rodrigo Muniz (£6.0m) replacements.

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Q: Who is the best Rodrigo Muniz replacement if it’s a one-week punt before the Gameweek 6 Wildcard?

Q: Is it time for the Jamie Vardy party?

(via @FPLwhitty and @FPL_Fullhouse)

A: This is one of the week’s biggest talking points, with several managers having an issue with the budget forward slot. Those with Muniz, Yoane Wissa (£6.1m) or even Joao Pedro (£5.7m) are in the market, so let’s look at some of the best options.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.9m)

Calvert-Lewin missed the midweek Carabao Cup game but his absence was because of illness, as per Sean Dyche, and he should be available for the weekend. He’s Everton’s clear talisman, their focal point and takes penalties too.

The Toffees are bottom of the table with no wins but their schedule is quite favourable from now on and you’d back them to soon start putting points on the board. If you’re wanting someone for longer than one week, I think he is the top candidate. The immediate fixture against Leicester City looks good.

Jamie Vardy (£5.7m)

Speaking of which, opponent Vardy has scored twice from just three shots, meaning there’s no underlying data to support the pick. What we know from the past is that he is clinical – when he gets a chance, he usually scores.

For a one-off punt, Vardy is a decent pick but then he plays Arsenal afterwards. I’m also not sure about his long-term fitness.

Danny Welbeck (£5.7m)

If Pedro is declared fit by Fabian Hurzler, I would choose the Brazilian instead. Assuming that’s not the case, Welbeck is a decent pick. He’s had the most shots (10) within this Brighton side but I don’t like that he’s been afforded just one big chance. Nottingham Forest have also shown themselves to have a decent defence, so the ceiling doesn’t feel high for Welbeck this week.

There’s also Eddie Nketiah (£5.9m) but I don’t really have enough confidence to recommend him after just two Crystal Palace games. Chris Wood (£6.1m) is an option but perhaps more as a longer pick.

Q: Is Erling Haaland worth a one-week sell to Ollie Watkins?

(via @MPrettypaul)

A: Now being able to roll transfers through chip usage has made them even more valuable than before, so we really need to evaluate such one-week punts like they’re a four-point hit, as that’s the opportunity cost of using it.

I think the loss of Martin Odegaard (£8.3m) will massively impact Arsenal at both ends of the pitch and I am backing Manchester City to win this weekend’s huge clash. With that in mind, I think Erling Haaland (£15.2m) is capable of matching or even beating Ollie Watkins’ (£8.9m) score and wouldn’t recommend the move.

Q: Should we be looking at Liam Delap as an option now that Ipswich Town’s fixtures are turning?

(via Pep’s Money Laundry)

A: The immediate fixture against Southampton is appealing but there are more proven options than Liam Delap (£5.5m) in that price bracket that I prefer. Even with Ipswich’s excellent upcoming run, the only asset I currently want to invest in is defender Leif Davis (£4.5m).

Q: Who are you captaining?

(via Babit1967)

A: Despite blanking in Gameweek 4, Salah will be getting my armband. His ceiling feels higher, in comparison to Haaland. After that, I reckon Watkins would be the next best pick but I’m not sure I’d go for him over the Norwegian’s lethal form.

Q: Irrespective of a Wildcard in Gameweeks 5 or 6, who is your preferred second premium? Has Bukayo Saka done enough to warrant a place ahead of Salah? Are we better off going with a double Arsenal defence plus Kai Havertz (£8.1m)?

(via The Red Devil)

A: It’s difficult to answer this question ‘irrespective’ of those weeks, as Salah is one of the standout captaincy picks for Gameweek 5 when Haaland faces Arsenal. Between Gameweeks 6 and 8, it’s a different story.

Salah plays Wolverhampton Wanderers, Crystal Palace and Chelsea but Saka plays Leicester, Southampton and Bournemouth. Based purely on fixtures, you’d say Saka is the clear winner but there are other factors to consider. Odegaard’s injury is a curve ball because it’ll affect how Arsenal play. But it also means that Saka is no longer sharing pens with him.

The three aforementioned Salah fixtures involve leaky defences. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him outscore Saka over those, given how lethal he has looked in Liverpool’s opening matches. However, you are unlikely to captain Salah in any of those and the £2.5m+ saving does go a long way.

So it depends on how you want to play the game. Do you feel more comfortable backing the player or the fixtures? There’s no right or wrong answer. I’ll be trying to include Salah in my Gameweek 6 Wildcard, with Havertz covering Arsenal’s attack alongside a double defence.

Q: Has the new rule allowing free transfers to be carried killed off the pre-Wildcard punt?

(via Hairy Potter)

A: I think it has definitely reduced its appeal but there is still a case of when it can profit. The opportunity cost is that it’s one transfer less transfer available to you after post-Wildcard.

But the advantage of such a punt is that you aren’t stuck with the player afterwards, you can get rid of him. It’s ideal for when a short-term opportunity arises – perhaps we get a leak or press conference tweet saying that Jhon Duran (£6.0m) or Cody Gakpo (£7.2m) will start.

They’re great for this week but you don’t want them beyond that.

You can check out a more detailed discussion on Gameweek 5’s dilemmas on this week’s episode of the FPL Wire:

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