Alisson injury: What does it mean for FPL?

Liverpool have been dealt a major blow with Alisson Becker (£5.5m) expected to be sidelined for six weeks.

The 32-year-old was substituted in the second half of Saturday’s 1-0 win over Crystal Palace after picking up a hamstring injury.

Alisson is therefore unlikely to play before November’s international break, missing crucial league fixtures against Chelsea, Arsenal, Brighton and Hove Albion and Aston Villa.

In this article, we look at the potential impact of Alisson’s absence in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).

• READ MORE: FPL notes: Alisson + Munoz injury updates, Slot on Diaz v Gakpo

IN-FORM LIVERPOOL

Liverpool have enjoyed a superb start to the season after racking up 18 points from six wins in their opening seven matches.

The difference between this flying start by Liverpool compared to previous occasions when they have flown out of the blocks is that instead of blowing teams away with the sort of free-wheeling heavy metal football that we used to see under Jurgen Klopp, with clusters of goals from Mohamed Salah (£12.7m) and myriad assists from Trent-Alexander Arnold (£7.1m) and Andrew Robertson (£6.0m), Arne Slot’s early results have been based on solid defensive foundations.

We cannot of course overlook the achievements of Salah. He has, after all, racked up four goals and four assists already and lies third in the rankings with 62 points, but Alexander-Arnold and Robertson have mustered only one assist between them.

The main reason Liverpool are sitting on top of the league is because they have conceded a measly two goals. Two! If they were to continue at this rate they will only ship 11 goals all season, a feat that would break the record for the fewest goals conceded in a Premier League season of 15 set by Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea in 2004/05.

ALISSON IMPACT

Liverpool’s defensive obduracy is in no small part down to Alisson. The Brazilian has been in excellent form this season – as he demonstrated last weekend when he came top of the expected goals (xG) prevented table for Gameweek 7, single-handedly keeping Crystal Palace at bay with a series of vital stops before pulling up lame. Only four goalkeepers made more than his four saves from shots on target in Gameweek 7.

Alisson has been one of the best goalkeepers in the Premier League ever since arriving at Anfield in 2018. In his first season at the club he won the first of his two Golden Gloves for keeping the most clean sheets, and since the 2019/20 season he has improved, maturing like a fine wine.

As you can see from the table above, he has ranked either first or second for save percentage in four of the seven seasons he has been at Liverpool and ranked in the top three for xG prevented in five of those seven campaigns.

The worry for Liverpool is that, although only seven matches in, this season was his best to date. He ranks third for xGP, boasts a save percentage of 88.2% and has an unrivalled four clean sheets already.

A major reason for this is the fact that Slot’s side have had a kind run of opening fixtures. The only team they have played so far from the current top 10 is Nottingham Forest – and that was the game they lost.

Liverpool’s defence isn’t solely down to Alisson’s cat-like reflexes, of course. They have a solid defence marshalled by Virgil van Dijk (£6.0) and Ibrahima Konate (£5.2m), the latter of whom is flying under the radar with a goal and an assist to complement his four clean sheets.

This defence is in turn shielded by a midfield that is adept at winning possession and keeping the ball at the other end of the pitch, which is why Alisson has faced the fewest shots of any goalkeeper this season with 17. Brentford’s Mark Flekken (£4.5m), by contrast, has faced 45 – albeit having played 104 more minutes.

IS KELLEHER WORTH BUYING IN FPL?

So the question is, will Alisson’s deputy, the attractively-priced Caoimhin Kelleher (£4.4m) be a cheaper route into arguably the best defence in the Premier League?

The Irishman’s limited Premier League experience offers us only a sample size. He has played just once in the Premier League this season, having missed Gameweek 7 through illness, but did excel in the 3-0 win over Bournemouth which was not as one-sided as it sounds.

Kelleher had to make seven saves as the Cherries bombarded his goal in an end-to-end affair in which both teams fired off 19 shots. In fact, Kelleher had the highest save percentage of Gameweek 5 with a head-scratching 116.5% (seven saves from six shots on target!) to earn nine FPL points.

Last season offers a slightly larger sample size as Kelleher made 10 appearances when Alisson had again succumbed to injury.

The 25-year-old acquitted himself well, ranking fifth for save percentage and faring better than Alisson for xG prevented in that campaign. However, only two of Kelleher’s matches came against top-six sides and he would probably have hoped for more than his two clean sheets from encounters against teams largely floundering at the wrong end of the table like Sheffield United, Luton Town, Burnley and Nottingham Forest.

So what we have to weigh up when considering whether it’s worth a punt on Kelleher is firstly, whether he will be well-protected by his defence thereby increasing his likelihood to keep clean sheets. The meagre 17 shots Liverpool have conceded so far would suggest that he will.

However, the white elephant in the room is the fixture list. Liverpool’s schedule gets quite brutal from here on in.

It’s fair to say that even Alisson would struggle to keep Chelsea, Arsenal, Brighton and Aston Villa at bay. Given that he could potentially be back after that, a punt on Kelleher probably isn’t worth it.

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