Fixtures vs form: Are Man Utd ‘flat track bullies’?

Do you try to get ahead of the curve by putting more trust in a team or player about to embark on a stretch of promising fixtures, or stick with one that is already riding a wave of good form?

It’s a dilemma as old as time (in the careers of Fantasy Premier League managers, at least), and one which will certainly face owners or prospective buyers of Manchester United assets in the coming weeks.

Erik ten Hag’s side have limped through this first part of their 2024/25 season, taking just eight points from their first seven games as they succumbed to a worst-ever start to a Premier League campaign.

But their Fixture Ticker over the next six weeks suggests there could be ample opportunity for the injury-hit Red Devils to stem the bleeding somewhat and climb out of the bottom third of the table.

We’ve taken a look at how United have performed against their various opponents so far this season, dug into the recent history of their upcoming match-ups, and laid out how they fared against top-half and bottom-half teams last year, all to determine whether they could be set to profit from their appealing run.

The season so far

Through the opening seven weeks of the 2024/25 season, United’s record – which leaves them sat 14th in the league heading into Gameweek 8 – reads: 2W, 2D, 3L.

• Gameweek 1: 1-0 win vs Fulham (H)
• Gameweek 2: 1-2 loss vs Brighton (A)
• Gameweek 3: 0-3 loss vs Liverpool (H)
• Gameweek 4: 3-0 win vs Southampton (A)
• Gameweek 5: 0-0 draw vs Crystal Palace (A)
• Gameweek 6: 0-3 loss vs Tottenham (H)
• Gameweek 7: 0-0 draw vs Aston Villa (A)

They’ve netted just five goals (only 19th-placed Southampton have fewer) in that period, none of which have been scored in the last three weeks, and conceded eight times, including three apiece in heavy home losses against Liverpool and Spurs.

Brighton emerged victorious on the south coast back in Gameweek 2 and Aston Villa were held to a 0-0 draw last time out, leaving Fulham as the only side currently in the top half of the table that have been beaten by United – and that was before the Cottagers embarked on a five-match unbeaten streak that was only ended by Manchester City in Gameweek 7.

As for teams currently in the bottom half of the table, United beat 19th-placed Southampton 3-0 but were held to a 0-0 stalemate by Crystal Palace (18th) the following Gameweek. Despite registering a pair of clean sheets in the end, they were perhaps lucky not to concede in both matches – the Saints missed a penalty en route to their xG of 1.12, while Palace were let down by the wastefulness of Eberechi Eze in front of goal.

So far, then, that gives the Red Devils the following record when split into current top and bottom half teams:

• Man Utd vs top half (2024/25): P5, W1, D1, L3; GF 2, GA 8
• Man Utd vs bottom half (2024/25): P2, W1, D1, L0; GF 3, GA 0

Looking ahead

United have a tricky start to December, with trips to Arsenal and Manchester City either side of a home tie against a Nottingham Forest side who – at the time of writing – are four places above them in the Premier League table.

Before then, however, the Red Devils face a more favourable-looking six-game run where Chelsea (at home in Gameweek 10) is the only fixture scoring higher than a two on the fixture difficulty rating (FDR) scale, and the only team in the top half of the table at present.

• Gameweek 8: Brentford (H)
• Gameweek 9: West Ham (A)
• Gameweek 10: Chelsea (H)
• Gameweek 11: Leicester (H)
• Gameweek 12: Ipswich (A)
• Gameweek 13: Everton (H)

Given, as their record stated above shows, United have undeniably fared better against poorer opposition so far this season, let’s see how they’ve performed recently against each of their upcoming opponents.

GW8 Brentford (H)

United won this tie 2-1 last season thanks to two stoppage-time goals from the since-departed Scott McTominay.

It was then another injury time affair in the reverse fixture in west London in March, when a 99th-minute effort from Kristoffer Ajer cancelled out Mason Mount’s 96th-minute deadlock breaker. The previous season – ten Hag’s first at the helm – United also won at home, but lost 4-0 away at the Bees.

Brentford currently sit 11th in the Premier League heading into Gameweek 8, with one more win and eight more goals scored than their next opponent. United have, to their credit, conceded five less goals than Thomas Frank’s team so far, but Brentford have also had to play Manchester City (as well as Liverpool and Spurs) in that time.

GW9 West Ham (A)

Against the Hammers, victory has gone the way of the hosts in each of the last two seasons without fail.

That could spell bad news for United, who travel to a ground where they’ve conceded three and failed to score a goal over their last pair of attempts.

West Ham are 12th at the moment, with the same record as United but a slightly better goal difference thanks to their 4-1 win over Ipswich Town in Gameweek 7.

GW10 Chelsea (H)

A home tie against free-scoring Chelsea is the trickiest fixture in United’s next six.

The Blues have so far conceded the same number of goals as United but scored 11 more, and are fourth in the table ahead of Gameweek 8 having avoided defeat since their loss to Man City in the opening game of the season.

United are winless under ten Hag at Stamford Bridge, losing a dramatic seven-goal thriller there the last time the two sides faced off. They did win the corresponding fixture at Old Trafford 2-1 last year – again thanks to a McTominay brace – and 4-1 the season before that. They’ll need to sort out their recent goalscoring problems and cope with the attacking force of Cole Palmer and co if they hope to get something from this one, though.

GW11 Leicester City (H)

Newly-promoted Leicester City have struggled so far on their return to the top flight, but grabbed their first win of the season last time out to jump up into 15th, one place behind United who they face in Manchester in a few weeks’ time.

The Foxes have leaked 12 goals and scored nine so far, netting four of those against Spurs, Villa and Palace – all teams United failed to find a way past themselves.

The two sides haven’t played each other since February 2023, with United winning 3-0 at Old Trafford on that occasion and 1-0 the time before that.

GW12 – Ipswich Town (A)

It’s two promoted sides in two weeks for United in mid-November, with a visit to Ipswich Town on the cards in Gameweek 12. 

The Tractor Boys have failed to win so far since returning to the Premier League following a decades-long absence, with all four of their points at present coming from draws. They have, in fairness, faced both Manchester City and Liverpool, and taken a point from each of Villa, Fulham and Brighton.

GW13 – Everton (H)

Closing out this promising run for the Red Devils is a home match against Everton, who have turned their woeful early season form around somewhat to take five points from their last three fixtures.

Though the Toffees enjoy what looks to be the kindest run in the division ahead of this encounter, they’ll come into it having lost five straight in all competitions against United, including their two matches last season by an aggregate score of 5-0.

Are United ‘flat track bullies’?

There have been only two matches (or four, if you expect Fulham and Brighton to fall out of the top 10 by May as they did last season) from which to judge United’s status as “flat track bullies” – a team that delivers more often against bottom half sides than their peers – so far in 2024/25.

Yet examining the data from last year appears to reveal a trend.

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