The Burning Question: How much stock should we put in pre-season?

With a busy summer of pre-season friendlies behind us, Fantasy managers have been given plenty of hints on potential formations and starting XIs for Gameweek 1.

Manchester United’s summer schedule has afforded a fair indication as to where Memphis Depay and Wayne Rooney will be deployed. There’s also form to consider, with Theo Walcott and Raheem Sterling demonstrating plenty of pace and menace over the summer, while Christian Benteke signalled his intent with a debut strike for Liverpool ahead of their opener with Stoke.

With all this in mind, we ask the “Burning Question”: how much stock should we put in pre-season?

Simon March (FPL winner 2014/15) says…
Pre-season is a better indicator of some things than others. For example, it can offer guidance on a manager’s favoured line-ups and formations, which, as we get closer to the season start, tend to become less experimental and a more reliable view of how that team will actually play. Of course, there are several potential agitators to even this information, such as the player fatigue that follows international tournaments or the open transfer window. These need to be taken into account when judging the reliability of what we see in pre-season.

It’s also worth bearing in mind that not all pre-season matches are created equal. There’s a big difference between exhibition clashes on a tour and more competitive matches such as the Europa League qualifiers or the Community Shield. The latter type of fixture is, we would assume, a manifestation of what a manager perceives to be his best available XI, playing in their best formation and, therefore, should be better indicators of what to expect going forwards.

The reliability of pre-season performances as a barometer of player form is even more difficult to assess. This is partly because of the fleeting nature of form itself but, also, because a player’s performances cannot be viewed in isolation. For example, Raheem Sterling scoring a brace in a recent friendly sounds encouraging, until you see that the opposition was the Vietnam XI. There’s a danger that we only look at part of the information and become subject to that old enemy of Fantasy managers; confirmation bias. Again, the quality of the opposition and the competitiveness of the fixture are key considerations.

Given the apparent unreliability of much of what it demonstrates, it’s tempting to write-off pre-season form altogether but I don’t think it is always entirely misleading. Where it seems to fail us most is when it comes to ‘bargain-hunting’ (I’m looking at you Mauro Boselli and Danny Graham) but, even during the main season, it is the form of budget players that tends to be the most transient. Where I think pre-season displays can be somewhat more indicative is when it’s being demonstrated by a previously proven FPL performer, preferably against solid opposition. Last season, for example, Aaron Ramsey followed-up a strong pre-season with two goals in his first couple of fixtures.

Overall, pre-season form offers a small set of mostly unreliable data and, for those reasons, should not be the principle influence on our selection. But that doesn’t mean it’s totally meaningless. Rather it’s a matter of viewing the overall context, picking out the more reliable indicators and using these, and only these, to inform our choices.

D1sable says…
For me, there are two important things to take from pre-season. The first concerns a player’s level of fitness. Has he had the minutes to be at his best? Is he likely to start the season after summer exploits? These can surely give an indication if the player is likely to start, which surely is the single most important factor in Fantasy Football.

Secondly, how are the team lining up? Is their new signing being shifted up into the front three? Is he taking a share of set pieces? These can give indications of potential for sure, though, on the other hand, if a full squad isn’t available for selection, it can also be a little misleading, so some research is recommended before diving in.

Aside from these two points, I genuinely think pre-season form matters very little, given that so many opponents are far from the calibre you’d expect to find in the Premier League.

Applebonkers says…
Pre-season is all we have for a month so, admit it or not, it chauffeurs our attentions from player to player. Wigan’s Mauro Boselli is the obvious example of a player to shine in pre-season but fall flat in the Premier League. Arguably, Jozy Altidore’s international hat-trick for USA four days before the season started carries the most guilt.

So the only time “form” plays any part now is as part of the word “formation”. With four new managers, an obscene amount of summer signings and a trio of promoted sides added to the mix, there are lots of unknowns, which the final friendly specifically provides some insight into. That insight should be limited to starting place and starting position, though. Past knowledge of the player and future hunches should do the rest.

Jonty says…
Pre-season is littered with traps, with squad players shining brightly on a Tuesday night against Gravesend, Burton Albion or the best XI Vietnam can muster, only to be dropped when the season gets underway and they have to face proper Premier League opposition.

I gain little knowledge from a player scoring against minnows in a friendly but that is not to say pre-season is not without its uses. The schedule of friendlies can be useful to clarify existing ideas about players. With a good summer under his belt, I go into 2015/16 with high hopes that Mesut Ozil will do well. Pre-season has shown me that he has the manager’s support and is delivering against some top sides, as well as some lesser ones.

In contrast, I’m still unsure as to whether Wayne Rooney, Memphis Depay or Juan Mata will be the best Manchester United option and the summer matches haven’t helped either. The Red Devils have looked brilliant and laboured in equal measure of late, which has offered me little guidance. I’ll most likely go for Rooney as a seasoned performer.

Each year I tend to stick with players in my Gameweek 1 squad who have delivered for me in previous years and have favourable fixtures, such as Rooney. A good or poor pre-season performance can help with such decisions, but rarely do they dictate them.

Evs says…
Fantasy managers need to carry out some pre-season research, particularly to understand where or when a new signing will fit into already established teams. I often use the last match prior to the season getting underway as a good indicator, as most coaches tend to give their starting team a trial run before the big kick off.

Obviously we need to be careful of a big or expensive signing and jumping to conclusions that he may take the place of an already-established player. A cracking example of this was Filipe Luis last year, who failed to make an impact for Chelsea in the Premier League.

New signings can always be a gamble based on summer form. For every Michu, the Swansea midfielder who carried his form into the Premier League, there is a Mauro Boselli, who has become synonymous for failed pre-season punting.

Mark says…
I always love to at least try to put some emphasis on pre-season form. I think this is natural because, having gone to the trouble of tracking player progress for behind-closed-doors training matches and Tuesday night trips to Exeter, I want some kind of pay-off for my efforts. I want to take a punt on a player with strong pre-season form to justify my toils in maintaining lists of teamsheets, goals and assists when others, including some notable players, are reclined by a pool.

In reality, history has taught me that putting too much stock in that striker who scores a glut of summer goals is dangerous.

Having said that, with fitness analysts at play in every club, there’s no doubt that Premier League managers have their players tracked meticulously during this spell. The minutes spent on the pitch are logged and analysed and only 11 players who have proved their fitness will cross the line in Gameweek 1. With this in mind, we have to take notice and use the information gleaned as a guide to our own decisions.

For me, two players stand out and their performances in pre-season has convinced me that I have to take their application to my squad seriously – they are Theo Walcott and Raheem Sterling. Both look fired up and, quite literally, “up to speed” to the point that I believe they will terrorise defenders from the get-go.

Would I have had the confidence in them to select them without studying pre-season progress? Maybe, but like many things with Fantasy Football, having more information, having another angle and viewpoint, is just enough to tip a decision and resolve a dilemma.

Demi says…
I don’t think pre-season should have much influence on who we pick based on their goal scoring exploits. However, it’s always nice when a player you were already considering notches a couple over the summer just to reaffirm your belief. In reality, there shouldn’t be a great deal read into it, because pre-season is mainly used to get players’ fitness up and give manager’s an idea of who’s going to feature prominently in their first team plans. It obviously isn’t played with the same intensity as a competitive match and the goals scored during summer friendlies aren’t cherished or remembered by the players/clubs once the campaign kicks off.

Pre-season can be very important to get a feel of players starting positions, and the formations that managers are likely to stick with for the start of the campaign. It can also be a decent indicator of which fringe/youth players could enter our thoughts for the budget positions in the squad at some point in the season if their are injuries to the first XI at any point in the season.

Ryan says…
I take very little from pre-season matches. The whole point of summer friendlies is for the entire squad to gain match fitness and be up to speed for the campaign ahead. Form should be taken with a large grain of salt because we cannot expect either team in a friendly to playing at 100%.

We can perhaps get a gauge on likely first team players. Some managers have played their pre-season fixtures with an obvious first and second team. This might give a strong indication as to who the manager considers to be first choice. I think it’s clear who Louis Van Gaal considers as first choice for Manchester United based on the two-team set-up he employed in the USA tour, for example.