The FA Cup Solutions – Part Three

We now conclude our three-part analysis examining the impact of the FA Cup postponements and our available strategies as Fantasy managers.

The two popular routes open to those with the Free Hit chip available have already been assessed. We looked at the option of playing this chip in Gameweek 31 here , following that with our appraisal of the widely preferred tactic of deploying the chip in Gameweek 35.

But what of those managers who don’t have that chip at their disposal?

In this final article, we will look at the situation they face, along with the potential tactics that can be explored.

We also extend this analysis by looking back at the FA Cup Quarter Final weekend from last season – which fell in Gameweek 28 – to attempt to evaluate the likely impact on a non Free Hit squad this time around.

The Fixtures

First of all, with six FA Cup fifth round ties now played out, let’s catch up with the current fixture scenario.

There are just two ties left to play, though Swansea’s draw at Sheffield Wednesday means that the fifth round will remain incomplete until the week of February 26.

Rochdale vs Spurs
Wigan vs Man City

Of those remaining ties, there will only be an additional Gameweek 31 fixture if Spurs lose at Rochdale. Regardless of Manchester City’s result at Wigan, their fixture with Brighton in Gameweek 31 is postponed due to the Seagulls’ progress over Coventry City.

Despite this, the good news – perhaps – for non Free Hit managers is that there are now four fixtures guaranteed in Gameweek 31.

Gameweek 31
Bournemouth vs West Brom
Huddersfield Town vs Crystal Palace
Liverpool vs Watford
Stoke City vs Everton

West Brom’s defeat to Southampton proved doubly significant, since it not only dropped their trip to Bournemouth back into Gameweek 31, it also confirmed the Baggies’ home fixture with Liverpool in Gameweek 35.

This now means that we currently have five fixtures guaranteed for Gameweek 35.

Gameweek 35.
Everton vs Newcastle
Arsenal vs West Ham
Stoke vs Burnley
Watford vs Crystal Palace
West Brom vs Liverpool

With four teams to progress to the semi-finals, at least one more match will also drop into this Gameweek.

Having looked at the revised fixture situation, we can now explore the possible options for Fantasy managers leading up to Gameweek 31 without the luxury of their Free Hit chip.

As mentioned in our previous articles in this series, the availability of the second Wildcard is vital in deciding any approach.

That is again the case for those without the Free Hit chip left to play.

The Wildcard Strategy

Those with the second Wildcard can remain optimistic during this period, despite the lack of the Free Hit chip.

It means that the Wildcard can be dedicated to the recruitment of players in teams blessed with two fixtures in Gameweeks 34 and 37.

However, without the Free Hit, there also has to be consideration of Gameweek 35. Those players who play twice in Gameweek 37, will, as a result of the FA Cup semi-finals, miss their fixture in Gameweek 35.

Striking a balance between loading up for double Gameweek 34 and 37, and having enough coverage for Gameweek 35 will be the key, then.

Two teams – Arsenal and Burnley – look set for two fixtures in Gameweek 34 but also play in Gameweek 35. Given that the Quarter-Finals will be played ahead of Gameweek 32, managers will be able to focus their Wildcard recruitment on the teams that are knocked out and fit this same profile – playing twice in Gameweek 34, but also active in Gameweek 35.

These can be targeted in the Wildcard for a Bench Boost squad in Gameweek 34, with the knowledge that their players will also be active the week after. It’s a solution, though having to plan for Gameweek 35 without the Free Hit available does restrict the Bench Boost talent pool somewhat.

At this point it’s important to stress that it is always wise to decide a Gameweek in which to deploy the Wildcard. This allows for a clear step-by-step plan of the pre and post Wildcard transfers.

For those with the Bench Boost chip left to play and targeted at the double Gameweek 34, it is clear that the Wildcard should be used prior to this and designed to build a 15-man squad with two fixtures in that first double.

Gameweek 32 is widely considered to be the optimum window to activate the Wildcard. Arriving prior to an international break, it affords a 15-day gap between deadlines, giving us more time to ponder our selection, as well as offering the chance to play the market for any price rises.

Gameweek 33 is also an option, though it offers a smaller window and it rules out the option of carrying over two free transfers into Gameweek 34; playing the Wildcard nullifies any banked transfer so that advantage would be lost.

On the flipside, it’s arguable that Gameweek 33 – being nearer to double Gameweek 34 – may give us some extra valuable information which could steer recruitment.

Once the Wildcard window is settled, the emphasis is on the transfer policy up to that point. The non-Free Hit managers can concentrate their short-term market activity on the fixtures over Gameweeks 28-30 and, of course, the remaining matches in Gameweek 31.

At this point, the Gameweek 31 ambitions need to be decided.

Managers should look at their squads and the number of existing assets owned who are set to be in action over the remaining four matches.

Those already holding a number of the key Gameweek 31 targets – Mohamed Salah, Roberto Firmino, Theo Walcott, Oumar Niasse and Xherdan Shaqiri – can already be content with their lot.

Salah is a clear favourite for the captaincy and even those managers with the Free Hit in play will likely turn to the Egyptian for his home fixture with Watford.

With the Wildcard available and in play soon after Gameweek 31, there is the temptation to aim to get close to a full line-up. However, given the scope of the talent at our disposal over the four fixtures, managers need to be wary of becoming blinkered.

As discussed in our previous articles, there is a risk of prioritising Gameweek 31 assets over players who miss that weekend but who have more favourable prospects over Gameweeks 28-30.

Opting for three Liverpool options – Salah, Firmino/Sadio Mane and perhaps Virgil van Dijk, looks acceptable and safe enough. Jurgen Klopp’s side certainly have the fixtures leading up to Gameweek 31 (WHU NEW mun) to promote investment.

Everton’s run (wat bur BHA) could also prove profitable ahead of Gameweek 31, perhaps excusing loading up their notable options – Jordan Pickford, Gylfi Sigurdsson and the aforementioned Walcott and Niasse.

Bournemouth’s arrival in Gameweek 31 – when they host West Brom – is welcome, though their schedule is more testing (NEW lei TOT). Nonetheless, the likes of Charlie Daniels and certainly Callum Wilson can now be considered as potential difference makers.

As for West Brom, their fixtures are favourable up to Gameweek 31 (HUD wat LEI), but their form is woeful and options limited beyond a gamble on a defender, perhaps Ahmed Hegazi.

Stoke’s fixtures (lei sot MCI) certainly stress the need for caution when looking beyond the Shaqiri option. Meanwhile, Palace’s schedule is a major barrier to investment until the eve of the blanks. At that point, we could consider Wilfried Zaha – if fit – with our transfer leading into Gameweek 31. Signing Eagles’ options before that looks a major risk given their fixtures over the next three (TOT MUN che).

As for Huddersfield, they arguably offer us limited options for Gameweek 31; managers without the Free Hit might be willing to gamble on one of David Wagner’s charges at best, with Christopher Schindler, Aaron Mooy and one of Steven Mounie or Laurent Depoitre, the leading cast on offer.

All in all – as we’ll see in the second part of this article – non-Free Hit managers with the Wildcard to play soon after, can likely be content with limiting their line-up to seven or eight players, enabling them the luxury of considering a profitable target now – perhaps a Spurs midfielder – who will not be active in Gameweek 31.

Without a Wildcard

There’s no ignoring the fact that, without both a Free Hit Chip and Wildcard, managers look to be at a major disadvantage.

If these managers are still holding the Bench Boost chip, it’s potential looks set to be hampered by an inability to rebuild after Gameweek 31 and the mitigation plans for the Gameweek 35 blanks.

Arguably, these managers could and perhaps should consider shifting the Bench Boost to Gameweek 37 with this in mind, with the Triple Captain – if left to play – deployed in Gameweek 34.

Ideally, every transfer made from this point has to consider the double Gameweeks in order to minimise the risk of suffering a major drop in rank when they arrive.

Clearly, those players most likely to play both double Gameweeks should be targeted. However, it’s impossible to be certain on those targets at this point. We will know after the Quarter-Finals – ahead of Gameweek 32 – but not before.

But with the draw made, we at least have some view on those four teams most likely to progress and that, to some extent, can guide the transfer policy before Gameweek 32; though it is a risk.

For managers without the Free Hit and the Wildcard, it seems more viable to devise a mix of transfers that focus on potential double Gameweek players and those players active in Gameweek 31, in the hope of finding a perfect balance.

After Gameweek 31, focus can then switch to those players with a double Gamweek in 34, but also with a fixture in Gameweek 35. Then, following that, the policy needs be dedicated to those with Gameweek 37 doubles.

In Conclusion

The good news is that, despite the arrival of a fourth fixture following Saturday’s results, there is every chance that those with a full Free Hit squad for Gameweek 31 may still struggle to gain a big advantage without the chip.

Looking back at the FA Cup Quarter Final weekend last season – which fell in Gameweek 28 – it underlines just how difficult it could be for a full XI to significantly outscore a squad with seven-to-eight active Gameweek 31 players.

Gameweek 28 – 2016/17

Liverpool’s Anfield encounter with Burnley highlights this best.

Their 2-1 home victory came courtesy of goals from Georginio Wijnaldum and Emre Can, with Divock Origi earning the one assist awarded.

Philippe Coutinho, meanwhile, was hooked on the hour-mark, while Firmino was ruled out by injury – one of only three league matches he missed in that campaign. Second in the Captain Poll that week, Sadio Mane played the full 90 minutes but failed to pick up points.

The four matches played over the weekend produced just a single clean sheet, while only four players played a part in more than one goal.

Romelu Lukaku justified his status as the standout candidate in our Captain Poll. Backed by 43%, he produced a goal, assist and maximum bonus in Everton’s 3-0 home win over West Brom, while his team-mate Ross Barkley supplied two assists.

Bournemouth’s Josh King was the real star of the Gameweek, though, thanks to a hat-trick and 18 points in Bournemouth’s 3-2 home win over West Ham. Yet the Norwegian was hardly a popular pick and boasted just 6% ownership ahead of Gameweek 28.

Meanwhile, Oumar Niasse emerged from the bench to fire both goals in Hull’s 2-1 win over Swansea. Given that he was sitting in 0.4% of sides, it underlines how difficult it can be to predict potential sources of points in such a restricted round of fixtures.

When we look at these events in relation to the Gameweek 31 landscape, we can perhaps equate Lukaku to Salah and perhaps King to Walcott or Wilson. But, of course, there is a very good chance that a hat-trick from a 6%-owned differential won’t be repeated.

The profit shown by extreme differentials Can and Wijnaldum meanwhile, underlines again just how tricky it could be to nail an optimum XI that will outperform a seven-to-eight-man line-up by a 20-30 point margin.

Clearly, those with the Free Hit in hand and targeted at Gameweek 31 should achieve an advantage. But the impact on rank over that weekend may not be significant given Salah’s likely dominance as Captain and the availability of five-to-six clear prime targets who are set to be popular in all line-ups, regardless of whether they are built with a Free Hit chip.

The bigger issue for those without the Free Hit, and certainly those also without the second Wildcard, will arrive with the Double Gameweeks and the blanks in Gameweek 35.

Our analysis of the theories behind the Free Hit hint that this chip might ultimately be most effective as a method of mitigating the Gameweek 35 blanks. By following on in a chain of chips from the Wildcard in Gameweek 32 or 33, with the Bench Boost in double Gameweek 34, the Free Hit may have found it’s most efficient and powerful role in its debut season.

Only time will tell.