The Burning Question – When to Free Hit?

The mourning period was suitably brief when Fantasy Premier League (FPL) announced the demise of the unloved All Out Attack chip.

Its replacement, the Free Hit, has vexed managers for a considerably longer period, with a number of theories as to its best use being touted.

The consensus was to save it for one of the inevitable late-season blank Gameweeks when sides drop out of the league schedule because of FA Cup commitments.

But even that has created confusion.

Should the Free Hit be deployed in Gameweek 31, when the FA Cup quarter-finals take place, or during the semi-final weekend of Gameweek 35?

And there’s even a school of thought that argues for the chip to be saved for the final Gameweek of the season to take advantage of plum fixtures and the teams with rather more to play for.

We asked Mark and our panel of Fantasy experts – reigning FPL champion Ben Crabtree, runner-up Uwais Ahmed and Career Hall of Fame top dogs Jay Egersdorff and Peter Kouwenberg – the latest in our series of Burning Questions: When is the optimum time to play the Free Hit chip?

Uwais Says…

When the Triple Captain and Bench Boost chips were introduced, it was fairly apparent to most within the FPL fraternity that they were to be used in conjunction with a Wildcard to take full advantage of the double Gameweeks in the latter part of the season.

Things, however, are not so obvious with the new Free Hit chip.

In pre-season, there was a lot of discussion that the FA Cup quarter-final weekend in Gameweek 31 would probably be the most opportune time to use it.

But I am of the view that if you have not yet deployed the second Wildcard, it might be an idea not to commit to the Free Hit chip then.

I took the view from quite early on that if the FA Cup draw was kind and did not pit too many Premier League clubs against one another in the early rounds, there was a great likelihood that we would see Premier League clubs going the distance in the competition.

In the last two seasons, the FA Cup has boasted an all-Premier League semi-final line-up, and I anticipate that to be the case this year, too.

If Spurs beat Rochdale at home in their fifth round replay, you just have to wonder how much value there is to use the Free Hit Chip simply to maximise returns from the four matches that currently make up Gameweek 31.

Looking at the upcoming schedules for the teams guaranteed fixtures – Liverpool, Everton, Watford, Bournemouth and even West Brom (although when you are bottom and seven points adrift, it is difficult to gauge what is a good fixture) – we have enough time from now to build a squad to ensure we have a respectable outing in that Gameweek.

We can then look to use our Wildcards soon after to take advantage of double Gameweeks as they have huge potential for explosive returns and could make the difference in our mini-leagues if prepared and executed properly.

We can then implement the Free Hit chip for Gameweek 35 – the FA Cup semi-final weekend – when there will be a bigger round of fixtures to choose from than in Gameweek 31.

These will include Arsenal at home to West Ham and Liverpool away to West Brom, and possibly even Manchester City vs Swansea City and Chelsea at home to Huddersfield.

Jay Says…

Short answer here is nobody knows!

While I think that planning is vital as we head into the final part of the season, it doesn’t make sense to me to plan for an eventuality when we don’t yet know the full facts.

Gameweeks 31 and 35 will throw up blanks, and Gameweeks 34 and 37 could throw up doubles.

But the Premier League have been known to catch out FPL managers in recent seasons with creative ways of rescheduling fixtures, the Gameweek 28 rearrangement of Arsenal v Man City being a prime example.

I remember Crystal Palace v Everton and Aston Villa v QPR fixtures being shunted into unexpected Gameweeks in recent seasons, so I can’t stress enough the importance of planning with the information that is definitely in front of you, NOT the information that could be in front of you.

FPL managers need to remember there are plenty of points to play for in Gameweeks 28-30, so taking one’s eye off the ball in the short-term planning department could be a dangerous strategy.

Peter Says…

I think anyone who tells you that a specific approach to the Free Hit chip is “clearly” the best approach is wrong.

For me, there are so many factors to consider – number of existing “blankers” in your squad, club priorities changing towards the end of the season, form, etc – that the decision whether to play the chip in Gameweek 31 or 35 really could go either way.

I’ve been going in circles playing out both scenarios and have even toyed with Wildcarding next week.

If pushed, though, my current feeling (possibly influenced by spending my Triple Captain chip so prematurely and profligately) is to cling onto that Free Hit chip like Scrooge grasping his last shilling for as long as possible.

Personally, I don’t subscribe to the school of thought which suggests that using the Free Hit in Gameweek 38 might be a masterstroke because those fixtures tend to throw up unpredictable results and rotations.

But I do favour the idea of wildcarding in Gameweek 32/33 in preparation for the double Gameweeks and using the Free Hit to deal with that (no longer quite as pesky) Gameweek 35.

Having read perfectly compelling and convincing arguments about both approaches, I decided upon my preference through the “revolutionary” approach of simply sketching out my team for the next few Gameweeks (including anticipated transfers, but ignoring the effect of injuries etc) “Sliding Doors” style.

Ultimately, I was happy to ride with an extra Stoke City/Liverpool player using free transfers until Gameweek 31 and couldn’t see a huge upside to using the Free Hit chip to flood my team. Everyone is going to have three Liverpool players regardless of their strategy, and I’m lukewarm about the other fixtures.

My prevailing feeling is that I’m not prepared to sacrifice the chip in Gameweek 31 just to crowbar in another two or three of the less fashionable players from unpredictable teams.

Retaining a bit more flexibility for the dying embers of the season – when we know who will be fighting, rather than holidaying, on the beaches – tempts me more than the lottery of which third Stoke or Bournemouth player could strike it lucky in Gameweek 31.

Ben Says…

In terms of setting up a much-needed strong finish to the season, I’d prefer to play the Free Hit in Gameweek 35.

This is based solely on being able to Wildcard in Gameweek 33, which would set me up for the remaining matches while ignoring the headache of factoring in who doesn’t play in Gameweek 35.

However, assuming Spurs beat Rochdale so their fixture with Newcastle vanishes from the Gameweek 31 schedule, I currently have just four players playing that week, with Jonjoe Kenny and Oumar Niasse making up half of them.

I have time to beef up this number with transfers, or can play the Free Hit, but the lack of appealing fixtures in Gameweek 31 make it a tough call.

I can either gradually bring in average players over the next few weeks to the incremental detriment of my team, or play my Free Hit to create the worst squad I’ll have ever owned in what could be a really low-scoring week.

The difference between fielding 11 and six players might amount to just 10-15 points, whereas using the Free Hit in Gameweek 35 means I can set a Wildcard team to take full advantage of the double Gameweeks 34 and 37.

There will also be more – and better – teams playing in Gameweek 35.

I didn’t know my answer when I started writing, but holding onto the Free Hit for Gameweek 35 is now my decision.

All of my next transfers won’t be aimed at Gameweek 31 as I want some Arsenal players after their Man City fixture, but I’ll add a few in and accept a low score in what is likely to be an underwhelming week.

Mark Says…

While it’s always wise to leave options open, the onset of Gameweek 31 means that we have to arrive at some kind of decision on our strategy in order to plan our four or five transfers between now and then.

I currently own six active Gameweek 31 players, though two of those names – Jonjoe Kenny and Collin Quaner – stretch the definition of “active”.

Still, with five free transfers remaining, I’m set on going into Gameweek 31 with seven or eight key assets, maybe more if a name emerges that warrants a points hit.

That is one very strong argument to keeping the Free Hit back for Gameweek 35.

The potential of the Bench Boost in Gameweek 34 is the other.

We’re not certain on what Gameweek 34 will present us just yet, rotation risks could actually limit the effectiveness of this chip quite considerably.

But then by saving the Free Hit for Gameweek 35, I would give myself maximum flexibility to exploit the double Gameweek that will surely arrive the week before.

No matter how many teams we get playing twice in Gameweek 34, knowing that I have the Free Hit to play immediately after to salve the damage inflicted by the blanks, offers me total freedom.

Hopefully, that can translate to an effective Bench Boost, and it will be the points from that, rather than my Free Hit tally, which could be the pay-off that really counts.

Conveniently, we will know the FA Cup semi-final line-up and therefore the full Gameweek 35 picture immediately after Gameweek 31. That should reveal the potential make-up of the Gameweek 37 doubles.

Having all our chips available with that information will likely be significant.