Scout Notes – City See Off Stubborn Chelsea

The Silvas strike gold for Man City against an ultra-defensive Chelsea, while Brighton outgun a shell-shocked Arsenal.

City’s 1-0 defeat of the Blues had more than a whiff of their more emphatic win over Arsenal on Thursday night.

Raheem Sterling again missed out – he’s been sold by 746,000+ over the last two Gameweeks – while the differentials delivered in his stead.

Bernardo Silva (1.1%) got today’s winner from the 7.6%-owned David Silva’s assist.

That’s two goals and an assist in four Gameweeks from Bernardo, while Spanish Silva produced his first assist since Gameweek 12, but now has nine for the season, which equals last campaign’s total.

His goal against the Gunners also elevates his stock, particularly as two of Gameweek 19’s popular captaincy picks, Sergio Aguero (6.8%) and Kevin De Bruyne (2.5%), both blanked.

The Argentine, who was sold by more than 80,000 managers going into the Gameweek, had just one shot and has now failed to score in three of the last four fixtures.

With United and Spurs to come in Gameweeks 33 and 34, Aguero owners Wildcarding the week before might now think again over holding on to the striker. Gameweek 34 should also come packaged with a home tie with Brighton but, with the title potentially wrapped up by then, Guardiola will likely be far more liberal with his rotation.

Despite three blanks in four, De Bruyne’s ownership continues to creep upwards and is closing in on his Gameweek 19 high of 1,480,571 managers.

The same cannot be said for Nicolas Otamendi’s base, with 151,000+ managers selling him on over the last two Gameweeks – just as he’s produced back-to-back clean sheets.

He was partnered at centre-half by Aymeric Laporte today as Vincent Kompany dropped out.

Midweek rotation is highly likely when City complete their Champions League tie with Basel – an encounter they lead 4-0 – so Otamendi should be in line for a well-earned rest before resuming action in the Gameweek 30 trip to Stoke City.

Things get slightly more complicated after their Gameweek 31 blank, however.

A visit to Everton precedes the Champions League quarter-finals, with key domestic matches against Man United and Spurs following each leg of the European tie.

That marks out the Goodison Park encounter in Gameweek 32 as a likely rotation hot spot.

Blue Sunday for Hazard and co

Chelsea came to the Emirates intent on stifling City and hitting them on the break.

They performed the first task admirably, the second less so as they finished today’s match with precisely no shots on target.

Eden Hazard was used as a false nine and suffered.

He had no shots or key passes and was starved of service all match as his more advanced role, flanked by Willian and Pedro, again had a huge impact on his offensive threat.

The inclusion of either Alvaro Morata or Olivier Giroud, who both came on as substitutes at the Etihad, is required to bring the best out in the Belgian.

And his 7.3% ownership could be excused for hoping Chelsea fail to find a way past Barcelona in the Champions League to remove the threat of rotation from the equation as well.

The Blues again suffered for the absence of N’Golo Kante, who missed today’s match through illness.

They’ve managed just one clean sheet in the four matches he has missed, and it’s now one shut-out in five for Antonio Conte’s men – they had six in seven prior to this latest run.

That lack of resilience could dent Marcos Alonso’s chances of being retained over the run-in, although their schedule from Gameweek 33 – with the potential for two double Gameweeks – encourages investment.

Chelsea will have to score in Barcelona to have any chance of progressing in Europe.

Our assessment of their run-in will depend on the outcome of that match, with defeat in Spain being more beneficial from a Fantasy perspective.

Based on today’s toothless performance, that is the more likely scenario.

Brighton rock the Gunners

Form over fixtures is usually cited in relation to a player. With Arsenal, it currently refers to the entire team.

Unfortunately for the Gunners, while their schedule could really not be much better – they have to face only Man United of the top sides before the season’s end – their form is the stuff of nightmares.

They’ve now lost four straight matches in all competitions, with today’s 2-1 defeat at Brighton of the go-down-with-a-whimper variety.

The Seagulls overwhelmed their more illustrious opponents in the first half, taking a two-goal lead courtesy of strikes from Lewis Dunk and Glenn Murray, with Shane Duffy and Pascal Gross providing the assists.

Arsenal did manage a reply before the interval when Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang dispatched Granit Xhaka’s pass.

But they couldn’t find a way past the home defence after the break and were lucky to finish the match with 11 men when Sead Kolasinac escaped a second yellow card for an industrial challenge on Ezequiel Schelotto, which led to the home defender having to be substituted.

Brighton’s form – they’re now unbeaten in five – couldn’t be more timely as their Fantasy assets will soon drop off our radars.

Chris Hughton’s men have a short-term schedule (eve LEI HUD cry) that will surely decide their Premier League future because, after that, things turn ugly.

Unless both they and Spurs lose their FA Cup quarter-finals, their Gameweek 35 clash will have to be rescheduled, leaving Brighton to face Mauricio Pochettino’s side, both Manchester teams and Liverpool across their last four fixtures.

That, however, is for later. For now, the Seagulls are soaring.

The 4.0%-owned Murray made it five goals in as many Gameweeks and is the second best value forward in FPL, behind Swansea City’s Jordan Ayew.

Despite such fine form, his ownership is likely to stay low as managers concentrate on transfers/Free Hit chips for Gameweek 31 – Brighton are not involved – and then Wildcards from Gameweek 32 onwards.

Those without Wildcards will likely hold on to Gross (17.5%) in the short term.

The German has played a part in 52% of Brighton’s goals at the Amex when on the pitch, has one goal and three assists from the last four Gameweeks and is the top value midfielder in the game.

At the back, no clean sheets in eight matches continues to dampen enthusiasm in their backline, but at least Dunk and Duffy finally delivered on their attacking threat – the pair are in the top four for shots in the box by defenders.

For Dunk’s 3.1% ownership, his strike was a welcome repayment for his four own goals this campaign, while Duffy’s (3.3%) assist was his second of the season.

Europe or bust for Arsenal

Thursday’s Europa League Round of 16 tie away at AC Milan has assumed almost epic proportions thanks to Arsenal’s current slump.

It also went a long way to explaining why Aaron Ramsey, drafted in by 34,867 for Gameweek 29, was rested by Arsene Wenger, who confirmed as much post-match.

“I didn’t want to gamble today for a physical setback, so I left him completely out of the squad. Yes [it’s a sign of the Europa League’s importance], because we have to be realistic. We need two teams to collapse [in the Premier League]. I can’t see that at the moment, because two teams to drop so many points is very difficult to imagine.”

Hector Bellerin was another benched by the coach presumably with Milan in mind, but Arsenal’s form and confidence remain so low that their excellent domestic schedule, coupled with the threat of further rotation should they progress in Europe, inspires little interest in their assets.

The exception could be Aubameyang, who now has two goals from his brief, four-match, Premier League career and would be one better off had he not missed a penalty against Man City.

The 4.4%-owned striker has differential potential as he is ineligible for the Europa League.

His team-mates, however, will need to improve markedly for us to consider any Arsenal player as anything more than a risky punt, even with six of the teams in the lower half of the table to play over the last nine matches.