Metrics – The Gameweek 34 Chips

In this latest Metrics article, we will look at how the teams of the (updated) top 10,000 managers are shaping up ahead of the long-awaited Double Gameweek 34.

As a start, looking at the current chip usage for the updated top 10k, we see that the majority of managers still have their Bench Boost and Triple Captain chips intact.

Only 17.36% have used Bench Boost already, while the percentage for Triple Captains is 28.85%.

Both chips are highly likely popular for Gameweek 34, with the Bench Boost expected to be the more prevalent on the back of Wildcards in Gameweeks 32 and 33.

Reduced rotation – compared with Double Gameweek 37 – and the prospect of using the Triple Captain on Harry Kane against West Brom and Newcastle also promotes the Bench Boost at this point.

So that chip will be my focus…

To get an idea about the current status of teams, I calculated that the average number of Double Gameweek players in the current top 10k to be an impressive 7.82 players.

The full distribution of percentages is shown below, where we see that the most existing situation is owning six-to-seven players.

This figure does not include free transfers or hits taken so far. To include that into consideration, note that the average number of current free transfers in the top 10k is 1.26, which means that the top 10k could have an average of 9.08 Double Gameweek players before taking hits.

Next, by focusing just on the managers who still own the Bench Boost chip, we find that they own an average of 8.03 Double Gameweek players, with an average of 1.26 free transfers.

That indicates that potential Bench Boost managers in the top 10k can have a squad of 9.26 players that play twice.

This raises the question of whether the average top 10k manager will still be tempted to activate Bench Boost with just nine or so Double Gameweek players – or perhaps ten if they take a transfer hit.

Essentially, their benches will be playing just a single match, with another one or two single fixture players in their starting XI.

But again, we must remember that quality will likely win out over quantity so that could prove the deciding factor.

However, I believe that we see a good number of Triple Captain chips played this week.

Managers who own around the average of nine players will doubtless attempt to get that up to eleven – or ten with Mohamed Salah) – but may forgo the Bench Boost and turn instead to Kane or a Manchester United attacker with the Triple Captain.

There is currently 19% of potential Bench Boost managers with 11 or more Double Gameweek players. That group seem most likely to turn to the Bench Boost.

While the remaining 81% could be split when it comes to deciding their chip of choice, if we speculate that the split will be 50-50, then perhaps 49% of the top 10k is expected to Bench Boost in Gameweek 34. That would increase the tally of Bench Boost chips played in the top 10k from 17.36% to 66.95%.

However, this is – as mentioned – purely speculative: rough estimates to guide our thinking.

Along that same line of thought, I estimate the usage of Triple Captains this week to be around half the managers who decided not to Bench Boost, which would be around 20% of the top 10k.

In summary, looking at the numbers, a very rough estimate shows that the use of Bench Boost and Triple Captains in Gameweek 34 maybe around 40-55% and 15-30% in the top 10k.

Let’s now get an idea on how the Bench Boost line-ups will look.

The following is the most selected team for managers that still own Bench Boost chip in the top 10k.

We see that there are many players that have a single fixture.

Nicolas Otamendi (31.28%), Andy Robertson (30.47%) and Roberto Firmino (48.81%) will cause headaches for managers who want to use the Bench Boost chip since they all have a single fixture.

Ben Davies (27.11%) is also a rotation doubt and might play just a single game.

Meanwhile, it is likely that Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (72.81%) is in many squads as a placeholder for Kane and Romelu Lukaku.

In my opinion, if your squad has a greater number of “nailed-on” starters and Double Gameweek players than this “template”, then the Bench Boost chip looks a very viable strategy.

We can also see that there is currently a lack of Manchester United assets in this template squad, with the exception of David de Gea.

But this seems likely to change with current transfer trends.

It’s also worth considering that the likes of Lukaku, Alexis Sanchez and Kane won’t be as highly owned as managers will need to make sacrifices to acquire them all.

Finally, I leave you with the current ownership of players in the top 10k.

This offers an indication of potential differentials either in your squad or being targeted with your Gameweek 34 transfers. Again note that these percentages are fluctuating daily and will look different once the deadline has passed.

Player Ownership Percentage – Top 10k Managers

After studying these metrics, I have a stronger appreciation of the effectiveness of the Bench Boost in Gameweek 34.

Like many other managers that have built towards the activation of the chip at this stage, I have more Double Gameweek players than the average of nine-ish. I’m also content with the prospects of my single fixture players.

However, arguably, the metrics reveal that the average Bench Boost line-up is not overly impressive. So those playing the Triple Captain could yet be the winners in Gameweek 34 if they can hit the most profitable captaincy option. That’s always a “big if”.