Spot the Differential

Spot the Differential – Lacazette can match Aubameyang output

The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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3,777 Comments Post a Comment
  1. DRIZ ✅
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    If you have the funds would you choose Siggy over Rich?

    1. Holmes
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Yep

    2. Dannyb
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Probably not

    3. Pompel
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Yes

    4. Please Help I Don't Kn…
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Asked myself this quite a lot. Tough decision but yes, I'd rather have Siggy.

    5. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      I would to be honest. I would choose Groß over both though, even if they were all the same price

      1. Captain Roberto
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 2 months ago

        Yes, if Richarlison can be as consistent as Gross was it'll be great. Gross needs to start brightly doesn't he and people will shift to the known quantity in gw3/4

    6. Evasivo
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Yeap, for me he's a brilliant option. On all set pieces and likely to pick up BPs

    7. bobby_bookah
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      split the diff and go tosun

    8. Demí
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      No

    9. TooDifficuIt
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      yes

    10. Slurpy
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      no

    11. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      yes

    12. Helia
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Yeah definitely. But I’m deciding between rich + 5.5 def and siggy +4.5

  2. Danny Fischarge
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Can anyone recommend a forward for 6m or less. I have gone for Austin but concerned with Ings joining Southampton last night....

    1. Four Hit Wonder
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      SOU play with two up front, so if anyone will be benched to make room for Ings it's Gabbiadini.

  3. Please Help I Don't Kn…
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Best captain pick out of these?

    A) Firmino
    B) Mane
    C) Eriksen
    D) Auba
    E) Zaha

    Currently on A. And yeah, no Salah.

    1. Evasivo
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Mane for me

    2. bobby_bookah
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      a or b def

      1. bobby_bookah
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 2 months ago

        probs b due to queries on fitness of a

        1. Please Help I Don't Kn…
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 2 months ago

          Thanks

    3. PRENO
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Salah

  4. Evasivo
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    thoughts on these two options?

    A) Siggy + Firmino (+£0.5)
    Or
    B) Mane + Tosun

    Current team:
    Pickford Stekelenburg
    Mendy Robertson Tomkins Peltier Dunk
    Ralls Siggy Salah Mahrez Stephens
    Firmino King Aguero
    £0.5itb

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      i pref b

    2. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      A

    3. Evasivo
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      50/50 again! 🙁

  5. Adro3
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Probability of Laca starting first 2 games?

    1. PRENO
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      0.92 probability

    2. bobby_bookah
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      high

    3. Four Hit Wonder
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      If Emery isn't an idiot, 100%.

  6. SADIO SANÉ
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    TTA & Aguero OR Mendy & Firmino ... no idea what I'm doing anymore ... 😀

    1. SADIO SANÉ
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Trent Thomas Arnold... ffs

  7. Ibralicious
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    My final decision:

    A)Tomkins (may double up with AWB if TAA doesn't start)
    or
    B) Boly

    as third defence option?

    Cheers!

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      never enjoy a double up on a potentially ropey def so b

      1. Ibralicious
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 2 months ago

        Makes sense, cheers

  8. goriuanx
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Klopp on Sturridge: "He did a lot of the sessions. I can't remember a bad game from him in pre-season. When Daniel is fit nobody doubts him."

    1. Captain Roberto
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      I guess he is the perfect replacement for Salah in the FA Cup and last 5 minutes of game sthey are 2:0 up in.

    2. Helia
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      When Daniel is fit nobody doubts him. The part we doubt though is that his fit.

    3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Saying when sturridge is fit is like saying when my auntie has bollocks

    4. arndff_
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Hi, mate!

      Want to ask you an off-topic question if it's not a problem:

      - What do you think about TAA? Is he nailed on?

      Wondering whether to downgrade Robertson to him.

      Cheers!

      1. goriuanx
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 2 months ago

        I don't think he is nailed but I think he starts a lot of games

        1. arndff_
          • 12 Years
          6 years, 2 months ago

          Thanks for your reply and good luck! 😉

    5. Four Hit Wonder
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      The question is will he score in the 25-30 mins he'll get against WHU.

  9. camarozz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    It's like Xmas here today.

    My punts for first few weeks are

    Siggy, Jota.. What's yours?

    1. Siggy in the Middle
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Sessegnon and Jimenez are my main punts.

    2. bobby_bookah
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Moura, Mata very punty

  10. Captain Roberto
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Watched Moneyball movie about the Oakland As in preperation to recreate fantasy points in the aggregate!

    1. SADIO SANÉ
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      great film

  11. Demí
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Sorry to keep spamming, but last call(hopefully) for my high rollers cash league. £80 entry via paypal. Email: demil1990@hotmail.co.uk for further details and i'll send you the paypal address.

    Just need 2 more players to complete the league

    1. Four Hit Wonder
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      What's the prize and how many players are in the league?

      1. Demí
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 2 months ago

        It's £80 entry. Standard cash league. Assuming 25 ppl, payout is:

        1st - £750
        2nd - £550
        3rd - £350
        4th - £150

        £100 to the highest individual GW Score in any week, including Double Gameweeks, and excluding hits.
        £100 to the player with the most successful captain scores over the course of the season.

    2. De Gea Van Dijk. 10
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      I only play £100 minimum.

      Sorry.

  12. thomashl
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Have Cairney or a starting 4.5 as fifth mid?

    Mainly playing 343, with Cairney as 1st sub

  13. rkpower1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Any help with this lot?

    1) Foster, Fab
    Shaw, VVD, Mendy, AWB, Peltier
    Salah, Jota, Richar, Eriksen, BSilva
    Aguero, Tosun/Arnie/Zaha, Kamara

    or

    2) Foster, Fab
    Peltier, Tomkins, Duffy, Tarks, Mendy
    Salah, Jota, Eriksen, Richar, Lerma
    Aguero, Firmino, Mitro

  14. Stevie B
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Will Baily play tonight? Thank you!

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Probs

    2. bobby_bookah
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      probs

    3. DV8R
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Probs

  15. The Alli Way
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    A) Mane & Bailly
    OR
    B) Sanchez & 4.5

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      decide which big hitter and make the rest fit

  16. FCSB
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Quick Poll:

    1. Luiz
    2. Bailly

    Thanks

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      1 more likely to be nailed

  17. Mcbazburger
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Which 2 to play for GW1?

    Maddison (mun)
    Costa (EVE)
    Cairney (CRY)

  18. It’s gonna Ben Mee
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Pick one:

    A) Coleman, Stephens (fodder) and King
    B) Tomkins, Bilva and Kamara (fodder)

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      a just

  19. Supersonic
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Is Kane gonna play this week?

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Probs

  20. Helia
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Anyone really that confident of Lacazette instead of aubs on here?..... I keep changing back to aubs, too unneasy with lacazette

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      I’m waiting & watching to GW3... how much will either realistically score between now & then?

    2. Dacra
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      I have no Arsenal, 2 tough fixtures and only Auba properly nailed,who I cant afford..

  21. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    8 hours & counting...

    1. KINGVIZO
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Hopefully no meltdown close to deadline - worth making team and sticking by 4-5pm I reckon!!

  22. MFPL
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    A) Davies & B.Silva

    B) Shaw & Mahrez

    C) 4.5m & Eriksen

  23. Gudjohnsen
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Mané or Eriksen?
    Have Salah but no Spurs mid/forward

    1. FCSB
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      iv gone mane

  24. flippetyflop
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Play Mendy or Tomkins?

    1. FCSB
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Mendy for sure

  25. goriuanx
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Is Ben Foster first choice?

    1. LangerznMash
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Think so

  26. FCSB
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Best 4.5m midfield option??

  27. yakirh
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Best defender to get from Wolves?
    Doherty nailed?

    1. DV8R
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Boly

  28. Adro3
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    3-5-2 with Aguero and Laca and Cairney 5th mid
    or
    3-4-3 with Aguero King Arnie

  29. Adambailey
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Mendy, Davies, Richardson

    Or

    M Alonso, Coleman, Richardson?

  30. Sanctum
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Which one?

    A) Zaha + 5.5 Def
    B) Jota + Bavies

    1. AzzaroMax99
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      A