The Digest – FPL Gameweek 3

Our Gameweek 3 coverage ends with this regular look back at a player, team and discussion point that attracted our interest in the weekend’s matches.

Eden Hazard returned with a goal on his first start of the season, while the surprise success story that is Watford rolled on.

We also ponder the unthinkable: ditching Liverpool assets…

The Player

Our initial focus of this latest Digest piece was set to be the most-bought Fantasy Premier League player ahead of Gameweek 4: Theo Walcott (£6.7m).

Given that we covered the Everton winger’s appeal in our recent Richarlison replacement article, we have instead turned our attention to a premium midfield pick.

Eden Hazard (£10.6m) made his first start of the season in Chelsea’s 2-1 win over Newcastle on Sunday, lasting far beyond the “50 or 60 minutes” that Maurizio Sarri had anticipated in his Friday press conference. Hazard, indeed, was still on the pitch at full-time.

With the Belgian international previously having made two substitute appearances in the league and another in Chelsea’s final pre-season match against Lyon, there seems little doubt over his match-fitness.

That Hazard is currently only the 16th-most-bought FPL asset of this week is a little surprising, given that the Belgian now faces back-to-back home matches against Bournemouth and Cardiff City and has delivered attacking returns in each of his three appearances this season – even though two of them were as a substitute.

Hazard is even still behind Jorginho (£5.1m) and N’Golo Kante (£5.0m) in terms of FPL ownership in midfield, with his premium price tag a stumbling block given the plethora of heavy hitters to choose from in all positions this season.

With a 14.4% ownership (and rising) at the time of writing, Hazard is not quite a bona fide “differential” – but he could easily provide his owners with a healthy rank boost should he explode over the coming two matches.

The omens are certainly there: Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) was the only midfielder to have had more penalty box touches than Hazard in Gameweek 3, while just Salah and Andre Schurrle (£5.9m) had more shots than Hazard among players in their classification.

Hazard’s minutes-per-chance average is now marginally better than Salah’s this season, too, trailing only behind Schurrle among midfielders with more than 100 minutes to their name.

The other midfielders in Hazard’s price bracket – Raheem Sterling (£11.0m), Sadio Mane (£9.8m), Alexis Sanchez (£10.2m), Christian Eriksen (£9.4m) and Dele Alli (£9.1m) – trail in Hazard’s wake in terms of rate of chances, with only Sterling offering a better minutes-per-penalty box touch average than the Chelsea man among that quintet.

Hazard, indeed, has only had one fewer penalty box touch and attempt on goal than Pedro (£6.7m) in the Chelsea attack, despite playing over 100 fewer minutes.

In terms of assist potential, only Salah has a better minutes-per-chance created average among the £9.0m+ options in midfield.

Despite his lack of minutes, only four FPL midfielders – all of whom play in deeper, more central roles – have made more successful passes in the opponents’ half than Hazard. More significantly, no midfielder has had more touches in the final third than the Belgian star.

Hazard is also afforded his share of set-piece duties from corners and free-kicks at Chelsea – as well as evidently being the Blues’ first-choice penalty taker.

The Team

Four teams sit level on maximum points after the first three Gameweeks of the season. While Liverpool, Spurs and Chelsea perhaps unsurprisingly sit in the Champions League places at the end of August, Watford‘s strong start is more of an eye-opener.

We had previously highlighted the defensive improvement that Javi Gracia had made to the Hornets after his appointment in January of this year: after his first match in charge in Gameweek 24, only Liverpool and Manchester City conceded fewer shots on goal than Watford until the end of 2017/18.

The Hornets’ 100% record this season has also been predicated on their defensive solidity. While they have recorded just one clean sheet so far, only Liverpool have allowed their opponents fewer attempts on goal than Gracia’s side (23).

No team has conceded fewer shots on target (six) than Watford, meanwhile, with only two top-flight clubs allowing their opposition fewer big chances.

The Hornets are one of only three Premier League sides yet to make a defensive error, with none of their top-flight rivals losing fewer tackles.

Attacking wise, Watford have also impressed. Outside of the “big six”, only Bournemouth have had more shots inside the box and big chances, while only Fulham have registered more attempts on target.

While the Hornets’ fixtures are stiffening somewhat, Spurs and Manchester United both have to make the trip to Vicarage Road in the next two Gameweeks and neither club will find it easy to roll Gracia’s side over on their own turf: Watford have only lost one of their ten home Premier League matches in 2018. Roberto Pereyra (£6.2m) has also scored in five of the Hornets’ last six home league matches.

The Discussion Point

With Liverpool’s fixtures about to take a turn for the worse, there has been plenty of debate in the FFS Community over the last week about whether a triple-up (or even double-up) on the Reds’ FPL assets is necessary over the next month or so.

Jurgen Klopp’s side play Spurs (a), Chelsea (a) and Manchester City (h) in their next five matches, while also facing a potentially tricky trip to Leicester City in Gameweek 4.

Liverpool, indeed, rank second-bottom of our Season Ticker for fixture difficulty over the next half-dozen Gameweeks.

With several of their rivals (Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal especially) enjoying a fine run of fixtures in September and beyond, there has to be the temptation to cash in on at least one of our Liverpool assets.

Liverpool averaged 1.6 goals per match against other “big six” clubs last season, significantly down on their season mean of 2.2 goals per fixture. It should be said, though, that the two sides against which they really struggled for goals – Chelsea and Manchester United (two goals in four games) – look far from watertight this season.

One of the fixtures in which they blanked, meanwhile, was the 5-0 defeat to Manchester City in which the Reds played over an hour with ten men.

Defensively, the Reds also struggled. Klopp’s outfit conceded at a rate of 2.1 goals per match against the other sides in the top six, a considerable increase on their overall season rate of exactly one goal per game. Only two clean sheets were recorded in their ten meetings with those five clubs, meanwhile.

Of course, Liverpool are a different beast now to the one that shipped four goals at Spurs and five at City in autumn 2017.

Since Virgil van Dijk (£6.0m) signed for the club, the Reds have kept more clean sheets (11) than any other Premier League side and haven’t conceded a goal at Anfield in six months. Klopp’s troops are the only top-flight club to have kept three shut-outs this season, meanwhile. No side has conceded fewer attempts on goal or big chances, either.

Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) scored on five occasions in Liverpool’s six league meetings with Spurs, Chelsea and Manchester City in 2017/18, meanwhile.

The decision is essentially down to fixtures versus form. While other clubs around them will enjoy easier-looking runs, the Reds’ performances this season have been quietly impressive – most notably in defence.

With Klopp’s side sitting top of the table, Salah and Sadio Mane (£9.8m) in the top three highest-scoring FPL midfielders and their goal yet to be breached, we are playing a dangerous game by chasing the short-term fixtures elsewhere. Pep Guardiola’s constant rotation could easily hurt us at City, while Chelsea and Arsenal have been indecisive at the back. In the Gunners’ case, it has been difficult so far to predict where the attacking points will come from.

Rotation to key assets or an unconvincing display in Gameweek 4, however, could soon convince us to re-think a “Livexit”.