FPL Question Time – How to handle Man City players in second Wildcard squads

Fantasy Premier League managers are full of questions this week as the Double Gameweek 34 deadline fast approaches.

A large number are in the process of finalising Wildcard squads, which means there are big decisions to be made in the next 24 hours.

We’ve put together another panel of managers to answer those queries…

Who’s on the panel this week?

Simon March – Fantasy Premier League champion in 2014/15 and regular guest on the FPL Show.

Ben McNair – One of Australia’s finest Fantasy minds, with four finishes inside the top 5k.

Holly Shand – Founder of Fantasy Football Community and regular guest on the FPL Show.

Question 1 – Simon

How many City players would you have on a Wildcard?

Simon: “Decisions regarding Man City are complicated due to what I’ll call the ‘Pep Roulette Paradox’.

“Essentially; City’s players have arguably the highest points ceiling of any FPL players yet, due to squad depth and rotation, they simultaneously have the highest chance of blanking. It follows, therefore, that the higher the number City players an FPL manager includes in their Wildcard team, the higher their chances of snagging a haul yet, paradoxically, their chances of blanking completely also increase.

“You could argue that City create so many chances that it doesn’t matter if their players miss some minutes. There’s some logic to this though you’d have to question whether Spurs at home and United away offer a viable platform for huge potential points hauls. In fact, going without City altogether for the Double Gameweek is arguably a viable strategy given that Arsenal, United, Wolves and Spurs in particular all offer plenty of high-potential alternatives (albeit none that are entirely immune to rotation themselves) but City’s favourable wider list of remaining fixtures will make them difficult to ignore.

“With the excess budget, Kane’s injury affords FPL managers, it’s an equally viable option to triple up on City, the big question, of course, is who to get. Nobody is above rotation but the primary and underlying stats point to Aguero and Sterling as perhaps the most likely to deliver, assuming they get minutes. de Bruyne offers an appealing alternative, particularly having been rested once already, as do the Silvas and Laporte at the more ‘budget-friendly’ end of the options. Of course, this isn’t even mentioning Sane, Mahrez and Jesus, all of whom are capable of hauling, though appear to carry a greater chance of rotation.

“Ultimately, there’s no general answer that I can come up with to the question of how many Man City players is ideal. By now, we’re pretty familiar with their risk/reward potential, it really comes down to how big a risk you want or need to take at this point in the season.”

Question 2 – Ben

Should we replace Kane with another 10m+ big hitter or spread the money around our team?

Ben: “There are plenty of good midfield and forward options at different price points.

“As a result, there is a range of team structures that will do well.

“I would look at the best captaincy options for the remaining Gameweeks and get two big hitters that best cover the options.

“Getting three big hitters is too much of a stretch, at least at my team value.

“It tends to be better spreading the funds than having a player priced over £10m that you don’t captain.

“This is even more important if you are still to play the Bench Boost chip, as you will need to spread funds across 15 players.

“If you’re sufficiently concerned about rotation among the top six clubs due to European action, it might make sense to go with one or even no big hitters.

“I’m currently leaning towards Aguero and Sterling, but I will want to get Salah or Mane for Gameweek 36 when Liverpool host Huddersfield.”

Question 3 – Holly

Is captaining Duffy or Ryan a sensible choice this week?

Holly: “With Kane now injured, the temptation to go with Ryan or Duffy is certainly there and more justified.

“It’s a high-risk strategy with high reward.

“If you’re chasing then take the risk, defenders and goalkeepers are notorious for getting hauls in a Double Gameweek.

“A clean sheet in one of the games will secure a reasonable return, but the threat of own goals and cards are ever present.

“I’ll personally be looking to Son or Vardy, with the latter favoured as he’s guaranteed to play and has penalties too.”

Question 4 – Simon

Is a combination of Lloris and Foster too expensive for a goalkeeper pair? After all, no one wants to use a free transfer on a goalkeeper after a Wildcard…

Simon: “Foster and Lloris are both good options individually, the former offering high save point potential and the latter, arguably, offering better clean sheet potential. Both have decent fixtures for the run in. As a duo, however, I do think it’s probably more invested in goalkeepers than is ideal, especially with the current number of viable budget options such as Ryan, Gunn and Leno available for up to a million less.

“Lloris, in particular, is a bit of a headache in that, if I were to pick one goalkeeper for the rest of the season, he’d be very high on the list but, in the wider context of the run-in, he might not be as good a pick as he first appears. Firstly there’s the issue of GW34 when many of us will be starting Ryan, which would mean benching all 5.4 of Lloris against Huddersfield at home, arguably Spurs’ best-remaining fixture.

“Obviously, this also has the knock-on effect of less money invested elsewhere and, while he might look like a relatively cheap way into the Spurs defence, one of their comparably more expensive defenders might actually be a better investment in order to maximise the overall amount of budget invested in playing assets.

“That said, I’m not personally the biggest fan of premium goalkeepers at the best of times. They always seem like a good idea at first but, sooner or later, I tend to find that I can live with a cheaper option or that I want to use that third player spot on somebody more attacking. I think this could end up being the case even if you’re flush with cash on your Wildcard right now. For me, there’s so much potential value among the budget goalkeepers at the moment that I’d be tempted to push that opportunity as far as possible.”

Question 5 – Ben

On a Wildcard, who (if anyone) should we be looking to from Manchester United and Arsenal? Their form is a concern, but they are still fighting for top six.

Ben: “I’m on a Wildcard and there are no players from Manchester United or Arsenal nailed in my squad.

“The player most likely to make the cut is Marcus Rashford. He represents great value for money based on his impressive 2019 calendar year to date. The worry is whether his prospects are hampered by playing with Lukaku.

“Not long ago I would have expected Paul Pogba to be nailed in my team, but his well-publicised drop-off in stats (an xGI of just 1.7 over the past six matches) and more withdrawn role, along with the juicy fixtures in store for Spurs players at a similar price point, mean that he may miss out.

“Lacazette is one of several decent candidates for our three forward slots. There’s a lot to like. He has delivered consistent FPL returns throughout the season. His recent stats look good too, with 15 shots in the box and an xGI of 4.1 over his past six matches.

“The concerns are rotation, Arsenal’s away form heading into four away matches and the stiff competition from the likes of Aguero, Vardy and cheaper options like Jimenez, Rashford and Deeney.

“I can understand why people might look at Kolasinac. The chance of clean sheets looks slim, but he’s one of the most attacking defenders in the game and there’s always the possibility of a double-figure haul. It’s a risky one though, as his place in the side is at the mercy of changes in formation.”

Question 6 – Holly

Should I go for Deulofeu or Doucoure?

Holly: “If Deulofeu is passed fit, I’d be tempted to go for him over Doucoure. He will be a firm fans favourite after his FA Cup semi-final heroics and Watford have four home games in their next six.

“It is a tough coin flip decision, with Doucoure better for the underlying statistics and starts, but that 0.2 million saving may come in useful, particularly for managers on a Wildcard.

“Deulofeu plays a more advanced position but beware he may rotate with Gray though, particularly with the FA Cup final to come.”