FPL team guide 2021/22 – Newcastle United: Best players, stats and more

Great analysis

Assists not mentioned, if he gets 10-15 goals and 5-10 assist that would be a decent return or not ?

Good work as always

Although Brentford went up via playoff route. They’re not your typical promoted play off team. A GD of +37 pays testament to that.

For me, he is just an enabler (11th men) from whom I'm not expecting much, 2-3 returns over 6-7 games will be fine. If I had extra 1m, then I would surely go for a 7.5m forward instead.

Expecting anything big from him is likely to end in tears 😀

Fixtures average for Toney too, Arsenal first up not great and then GW4 onwards not great either.

Personally loved his highlights reel, very reminiscent of Ruud Van Nistelrooy - everything is one touch & shoot - my hunch is that type of finishing style has a much higher chance of transferring up a league than a mazy runner/dribbler who is slaloming past 4 or 5 players in the championship every week (which just doesn't wash in the premiership)

His 50% goal involvement is the other big draw for me - basically we just need Brentford to score 35-ish goals (from 80 last year) & he's an instant FPL darling - even if they only score 30 and struggle he should still be viable... and if they somehow manage to score 40+? Then Toney is in for a bonanza season….

But look at the end of the day he's a championship striker as you rightly say (although not many have been as lethal as him in that league, certainly not Bamford or Watkins) so there are question marks there. But I do think he's up there with Bamford & Watkins as being well able to give plenty of Premier League defenders nightmares

Murray & Mitro did spring to mind for me as extremely profligacy championship strikers who underwhelmed in the PL - but they were very different situations to To eh

Murray - catastrophically ruptured his cruciate immediately following his 30 goal championship season, and only made 3 starts the following season - was never really the same player after the injury, but was still well able to poach goals in the premier league when fit (see also the “one-touch-bang” finishing style that serves Toney so well - defenders always struggle with these types of players)

Mitro - after his 26 goal championship campaign he actually got 4 returns in his first 6 starts for Fulham last season… but the rest of his season was ruined with injuries/losing his place & only made 4 starts in the following 22 games and 7 in the remaining 31 games

And Tammy - will actually be in everyone’s team (ok not literally everyone, but you catch my drift) at 6.5 if he gets a move to somewhere he’s nailed

With Toney…. My back of an envelope maths isn’t that he should have a good go at 35 appearances, 13 goals, 5 assists, 15 bonus - which is about 150 points - then he could land +/- 10% either side of that if he either has or hasn't got luck on his side

I'd pencil him into the 135 - 165 range

But all he needs is an early arsenal lapse in concentration, or a mistake or bit of luck to score in GW1 & we could see a lot of those points being front-end loaded in the season

No doubt Brentford will go through at least one sticky patch where they'll struggle to score for at least a few games, GW6-9 looks like their toughest sequence so they'll be fighting tooth & nail to get some points (and goals) on the board before that run I'd imagine

But the other side of that is he has 4 of last years bottom half teams in the first 5 gameweeks seems to have lined up well for him

But no guarantees with him for sure

Thing is, he doesn't have to be a season keeper, but what I like to do with some of the newly-promoted teams is try and capitalise on that initial momentum, that first game in front of the home fans etc.

It often wears off, but I never get the 'wait and see' approach.

Hop on, then hop off if you need to.

Complete abuse of statistics there to use the word "safe" in relation to the Pulis Palace miracle side in 2013 🙂

Nice post

33 goals though is an awful lot. I'd mirror MBP's point about Murray and Mitro and the fixture run. My other caveat is that Brentford may not have been especially prolific but they do have history in serving their CF really rather well. Maupay was brilliant there and they also made Watkins into a CF from a winger.

The other point I'm bearing in mind is the price tag. The 6.5 and under selection is a rag tag bunch - full of has-beens and never-quite-weres. It's one slot where I'm most inclined to hop and off if I go there and chase form/points. Pukki, Welbeck. King/Deeney even Tekkers could well provide excellent value in flashes.

As it stands I'm closer to Mbeumo as a cheaper makeweight but nothing decided so far.

agree, not touching him until I see how Brentford adapt to the Prem...these unpredictable bandwagons grow wheels quickly on here but there are plenty of proven alternatives to choose from

The biggest thing putting me off is the massive ownership, if he doesn't score in the first 2 weeks the casual players will jump off in droves. It makes it harder to move off of him with a price drop.

Looking at all his goals last season he scored a lot of penalties and a lot of headers. I wouldn't expect Brentford to get as many free kicks, corners and penalties this season personally.

The other thing with Toney is - and this is big - if you *do* decide to take a punt - for the love of god do not listen to the FFS opinion boards during the Arsenal match

Because one thing you can guarantee is - as soon as he gets to 30-40 minutes without a goal the wisened old owls of FFS boards will start to pass judgement that he is “awful”, “dreadful”… and heaven forbid he get to 80 minutes without a goal as that’s when the “he’s a championship striker, he has to go” talk will start

It was the exact same with Bamford & Watkins all season - as soon as they get to a half of football without scoring, the knives were out and they were absolutely slated on here, before returning again within a game or two, almost without fail

Give Toney the first 5 games if you are punting - if he’s underwhelmed, so be it and the GW6-9 fixture run looks a good time to hop off

What you don’t want is to listen to the match day nonsense on here & sell him before a double return vs either palace, Villa, Brighton or Wolves - you may as well just stay away from the start if you can’t handle the first 5 imo

Sheffield Leeds and Wolves all secured mid table finishes after promotion

Pukki might be a better option in that price range imho.

Toney looks good value to me at £6.5m.

Personally think a lot of the value is in midfield, but you have to pick three strikers and play at least one so Toney looks good for one of the three striker slots.

I haven't been on here for quite a while, but i do find these kind of threads quite interesting, bit more of people's thoughts as to why player x might or might not do well or have potential, rather than the rmts, and x player good, x player bad stuff - i think that Toney definitely has potential to do reasonably well, maybe even match some of the 7.5m forwards (although not necessarily as Brentford obviously an unknown quantity atm in premier league terms) - for me it might just be that i'm more willing to take a punt on Toney than make that 1m sacrifice somewhere else in my team, i could change my mind though - if the Haaland/Kane transfers happen then i guess a lot of people will be ripping up their drafts and starting again anyway

There is always an attraction of an unknown player that people think he could be the answer to their dreams, which is almost never the case, but if i pick Toney and he gets a couple of goals/assists in the first few gws then that would do - there are still risks with the 'proven' 7-8m strikers which can give some credence to the philosophy of wanting to 'punt' on someone new in a hungry promoted side. Atm i'm going with 3 mid-price strikers, probably Watkins but might want to drop him after gw3, i like Antonio but don't want the injury risk, i like Iheanacho but don't yet know if he's 100% starter with Barnes back and a new striker signed for Leicester, Wilson is good but like Antonio is prone to injury, Bamford a bit pricey when i can get Harrison or Raphinha for much less, DCL has nice fixtures but so often disappoints when you expect him to do well in nice fixtures - so maybe there is room for Toney afterall, we'll see....