FPL Gameweek 12 Q&A: Best forwards, Jota’s appeal and keep or sell Vardy?

Gameweek 11 was a bit of a bloodbath, not Fantasy Premier League (FPL) wise, but for many league managers. As FPL players, we have to capitalise on the opportunities that these dismissals present and this will be a theme for many of the questions I discuss in this week’s article. There have also been a few injuries that need to be considered in our decisions.

Q: Who are your top three forward choices at the moment? (dugusaeyo)

A: I figured that we would get probably the most difficult question out of the way first. Its been a bit of a barren wasteland for strikers and it says a lot that the top-scoring striker remains Michail Antonio (£8.2m), despite four blanks in his last five. The West Ham United forward would still make it into my top three despite those lack of returns as I think the Hammers are a genuine top-six side this season and can score against anyone.

For my next two picks, I’m going with new manager bounces. Firstly, Callum Wilson (£7.3m) has experience of working with new manager Eddie Howe and, as we can see from the below image, Howe is an attacking manager and his forwards get a lot of service.

Newcastle United are ranked second for attack difficulty over the next five matches, as per Scout’s ticker, so I think Wilson has the perfect platform to deliver.

The third pick has to be Harry Kane (£12.1m). I can’t really find any statistical data from this season to back this up but I do think he is too good a player to stay out of the spotlight for long. Antonio Conte has a stellar record with his strikers; Romelu Lukaku (£11.5m) scored 47 goals in 72 league appearances, Carlos Tevez scored 19 goals from 34 and Diego Costa scored 20 times in 35 league games under the Italian. Spurs have fantastic-looking fixtures and it allows you to retain a premium forward structure to bring in Lukaku or Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.4m) later.

Q: Is it worth waiting another week for Spurs assets, to maybe get someone like Diogo Jota (£7.5m) this week? Or is the upside with going early greater than the information we can get? (@iamneol)

A: Prior to Gameweek 11, Jurgen Klopp ruled out Roberto Firmino (£8.8m) for a minimum of four weeks. With this being the Brazilian’s second hamstring injury in a short period, Liverpool might take it easy with his return, given how likely they are to depend on him when Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) and Sadio Mane (£11.9m) go to the African Cup of Nations.

Jota started every match when Firmino was ruled out last time and the main problem with him as a FPL asset has always been a lack of assured minutes.

The above table from FBref.com shows that Jota is ranked third amongst all players for non-penalty expected goals + expected assists (npXG+xA) per 90 minutes this season.

He posted impressive numbers last year, too, which we highlighted in our preseason podcast of @TheFPLWire in the image above. What we have now is a £7.5m asset playing up front, ‘out of position’, for the best attack in the league. Liverpool now have two home fixtures and a game against local rivals Everton, needing wins to keep pace in the title race. If I had to pick between buying a Spurs asset or Jota this week, I would go with the latter. It is also worth mentioning that Liverpool are guaranteed top spot in their Champions League group, so Klopp can afford to rest the Portuguese in the European games.

Q: Keep or sell Jamie Vardy (£10.8m), considering Son Heung-min (£10.3m) and Harry Kane are yet to fire? (@appshaank)

A: Vardy’s stats over the last three Gameweeks, when many brought him in as a Lukaku replacement, have fallen off a cliff. He has zero shots on target over that period and registered an expected goal involvement (xGI) of just 0.35.

Leicester City have been hugely reliant on Youri Tielemans (£6.5m) for creativity this season. Only Bruno Fernandes (£11.7m), Jack Grealish (£7.7m) and Salah have created more chances amongst midfielders than the Belgian’s 22. He was substituted with an injury in Gameweek 11 and there are concerns that he will be out for two or three weeks

Without his distribution, I think Vardy might struggle for service. Brendan Rodgers will likely have to change shape to get him some, with Harvey Barnes (£6.5m) and Ademola Lookman (£6.0m) as wide creators, but I do fear for Vardy’s short-term prospects.

If you can do the move for free, I’d move him on for Kane. I know Spurs have not had a effort on target over the last two matches but Leeds United will always afford their opponents some shots on goal and I have a good feeling about Kane.

Q: Is it time to lose Ivan Toney (£6.7m)? (@FPL_Banger)

A: News has just recently come in that Mathias Jensen (£4.9m) has been diagnosed with Covid. The Dane has been Brentford’s creative force since returning to the side in Gameweek 8.

His total of 13 chances created is head and shoulders above any teammate and will definitely dent their creative output. The Bees are already suffering because of an injury to goalkeeper David Raya (£4.5m), who was a key part of their style. Toney’s numbers are nothing special either, with just four shots on target in as many matches.

It might be worth giving him the Newcastle fixture, as there is always added motivation for a player to score against a previous employer but, if you don’t have other fires to put out this week, I like the move to Wilson. Even though Brentford are top of the fixture ticker shown earlier, I think that Everton and Spurs will prove stiff opposition and Leeds are much stronger on home turf.

That’s all for now, I hope you found the answers useful and I will be back next week with a Watchlist update ahead of Gameweek 12.