FPL Q&A: What do to with Haaland?

Throughout the 2022/23 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) season, our stellar team of Pro Pundits, Hall of Famers and guest contributors will be sharing their thoughts and own transfer plans.

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Here, seven-time top 10k finisher Zophar answers some of the week’s most-owned questions and reveals his team plans for Gameweek 14.

It’s just three Gameweeks to go now till the World Cup and it is an unprecedented situation that we FPL managers find ourselves in: never before has every active manager been ‘dead-ending’ into a mid-season Gameweek.

Keeping the above in mind, let’s dive into this week’s questions for the regular Q&A.

Q: How do you rate Bukayo Saka, Miguel Almiron and Jarrod Bowen until the World Cup break? Would you replace Bowen with one of the others?

(via @shmirofpl)

A: This was by far the most asked question of the week so I’m going to address this first and throw in Wilfried Zaha (£7.5m) as well.

Let’s look at the table for the last six matches:

Miguel Almiron (£5.4m) is top amongst midfielders for non-penalty expected goals (npXG) over the last six matches and the next two fixtures look good against Villa and Southampton. The Chelsea game is at St. James Park, where you fancy Newcastle to have a go against anyone, so it is hard to say anything negative about Almiron at the moment. 

Bukayo Saka (£8.0m) is also up there: he is ranked third for npXG and is third for expected goal involvement (xGI, 3.67) only to Jarrod Bowen (£8.2m, xGI of 4.24) and Kevin De Bruyne (£12.3m, xGI of 4.26). The Gunners have been electric at the Emirates this season so the upcoming Nottingham Forest fixture looks great and Wolves are a lot more open now, so this bodes well for Gameweek 16. Gameweek 15 is a bit off-putting, however, with Chelsea unlikely to rotate after they clinched top spot in their UEFA Champions League group. 

Zaha is nowhere to be seen: he has an npXG of just 1.04 and an xGI of 1.46, having been afforded just a single big chance over the last six matches. Yes, he has taken 10 shots but most of these have been low-percentage chances from the edge of the area. 

As you can see, Bowen’s numbers are still really good, both for shots and chances created. He has likely lost penalty-taking duties but I still really like the final two home fixtures for West Ham against Palace and Leicester. I wouldn’t move off Bowen now as transfers are precious with only three Gameweeks remaining, and I think there is more to be gained by using those transfers elsewhere than on taking Bowen out. You could perhaps play someone like Andreas Pereira (£4.6m) this week if you don’t fancy Bowen at Old Trafford and bring him back into your starting XI for the two after. 

Zaha is a much trickier one. Southampton are without a recognised right-back and Zaha’s underlying numbers and returns have been much better at Selhurst Park than on the road. The Gameweek 15 fixture against West Ham is a difficult one, however, as the Hammers are amongst the top four teams for expected goals conceded (xGC) this season. Nottingham Forest, who the Eagles face in Gameweek 16, are showing signs of defensive solidity, as well. So again, this comes down to where else you can use your transfers. If you feel this is the only area you need to improve in your team, I think Zaha can be moved on for the aforementioned three options.

If I was to rank the four players right now, it would be: Saka, Bowen, Almiron and Zaha. I am perhaps being a little bit unfair to Almiron here, primarily because of the low number of big chances (two). He has been scoring absolute ‘worldies’ and that’s perhaps not as sustainable. He’s as hot as they come right now, though. 

Q: If we get news that Erling Haaland isn’t playing Gameweek 14, should Phil Foden or Mohamed Salah should be captained?

(via @hrk1989)

A: At the time of writing, we are yet to hear anything concrete from Pep Guardiola on Erling Haaland’s (£12.2m) fitness other than that he was “better” and that he will have to be assessed. He was pictured limping in a video on social media but was not wearing any protective boot/using crutches. So I would assume that any absence for Haaland would be limited to one week only.

Even though Guardiola has effectively declared him a ‘doubt’, I would still captain him with the vice-captaincy on an Arsenal/Liverpool player. I think there’s a good chance he starts or misses out entirely. Looking at alternatives, I would not go with someone like Phil Foden (£8.4m) as I just don’t know what sort of lineup/system Guardiola might deploy without the big Norwegian. 

Looking at alternatives, I would perhaps rank Arsenal assets higher than Liverpool this week but that does depend on the player. I think Gabriel Jesus (£8.0m) is perhaps better than Mohamed Salah (£12.8m) but I don’t think Bukayo Saka (£8.0m) is, necessarily. So my preference would probably be Jesus, Salah, Darwin Nunez (£8.8m), Saka and Gabriel Martinelli (£6.8m) in that order. I wrote about Takehiro Tomiyasu’s (£4.2m) influence on Martinelli last week and unless we get an idea that Kieran Tierney (£4.8m) or Oleksandr Zinchenko (£5.0m) is starting, I would not go there with the captaincy. 

Q: What is riskier, picking Ivan Toney or Gabriel Jesus, who both are on four bookings, or Dominic Calvert-Lewin or Darwin Nunez who are injury prone?

(via @abuzz_99)

A: With just three Gameweeks to go, I think you ignore the yellow card risk and bring in the players who you think will score the most points. Brentford’s attacking numbers have plummeted of late and they play Manchester City in Gameweek 16, so I wouldn’t go for Ivan Toney (£7.5m) right now.

Jesus is very tempting indeed. I also like both Nunez and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.9m), with the latter having a huge incentive to book a spot in Gareth Southgate’s squad. I expect Frank Lampard to give him minutes over the next three Gameweeks and he is a great differential option with arguably the best fixture run.

Nunez too could bang in a hat-trick in any game so I think three of the four picks you mentioned are outstanding options. If I was to rank them, I would say Jesus, Nunez and Calvert-Lewin in that order, but it’s close.

Q: Sell Ivan Perisic or Matt Doherty for Ben White?

(via @KanteCWH)

A: Lots in the community own one or even two Spurs wing-backs so I wanted to address this question given that both Matt Doherty (£4.6m) and Ivan Perisic (£5.5m) started in the Champions League last night against Sporting. Harry Kane’s (£11.5m) late goal being ruled out means that Spurs need a result in their Matchday 6 Champions League fixture and they have a congested schedule, with Wednesday’s dramatic clash followed by Bournemouth away on Saturday and then Marseille away on Tuesday. 

It is anyone’s guess what line-up Antonio Conte puts out against Bournemouth as it is arguably their ‘easiest’ fixture of the three, while it should also be noted that the Lilywhites play Liverpool in Gameweek 15. But I do think that he will want Perisic’s experience in Marseille, which makes me doubt he starts against Bournemouth. Doherty is a trickier one. I would guess Emerson Royal (£4.9m) starts against Marseille but does he give him minutes against Bournemouth? Benching him for two games and starting him against Marseille doesn’t feel right and getting some minutes in the tank might be a good thing for Emerson as his minutes have been limited because of the recent red card. 

With only three Gameweeks left, going for Ben White (£4.6m) does not feel like a high-upside move, especially given they play Chelsea next week. But if you do not have any other defender you can play, such as Marc Guehi (£4.4m), I would make the move as I still see point gains from that transfer in Gameweeks 14 and 16. 

My Team for Gameweek 14

We will be discussing the above topics and more on the Gameweek 14 pod of the FPL Wire. You can check it out here on Thursday.

See you next week!

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