The FPL half-term report: Nottingham Forest

Our Fantasy Premier League (FPL) restart coverage continues with a review of all 20 Premier League clubs’ seasons so far.

In this Half-Term Report series, we look at which FPL players and teams have been top of the class in 2022/23 to date and who should be consigned to the Fantasy naughty step.

FPL bosses get unlimited transfers before Gameweek 17, so these articles will hopefully help you pinpoint some key targets for the Boxing Day resumption.

Next up is Nottingham Forest, the side that bought 21 players for their eagerly-anticipated return to the top flight, following a 23-year absence.

ATTACK: SEASON SO FAR

Sitting in the relegation zone, it’s certainly no surprise to see Forest rank similarly for underlying attacking stats. Wolverhampton Wanderers are the only team to score fewer goals.

Taiwo Awoniyi (£5.7m) is their top league scorer with three goals, followed by the two of Brennan Johnson (£5.6m) and Morgan Gibbs-White (£5.5m), which explains why none of their regular midfielders or forwards exceed 1.5% ownership.

Meanwhile, on the trio of occasions where Steve Cooper’s side scored more than once, they could only get a draw from hosting Bournemouth, Fulham and Brentford.

Above: How Nottingham Forest compare to other Premier League sides for minutes per NPxG across 2022/23 (click to expand)

DEFENCE: SEASON SO FAR

Bournemouth are the only outfit to concede more often, although some Forest defensive assets have accumulated a decent ownership.

The 12%-owned Dean Henderson (£4.7m) is the game’s second highest-scoring goalkeeper and beats them all for bonus points, thanks to two penalty saves.

Then again, when your team concedes a league-high five spot-kicks, you’re presented with a great chance of stopping a couple.

Yet the final pre-World Cup weeks did see an improvement at the back. Three clean sheets arrived from the last five outings, taking them up to a very respectable four in total.

And in fact, from Gameweeks 6-16, Forest were ranked a commendable eighth for minutes per NPxGC:

Above: How Nottingham Forest compare to other Premier League sides for minutes per NPxGC across 2022/23

BIGGEST GOAL THREATS

Above: Nottingham Forest players sorted by big chances (BCT) per 90 minutes in 2022/23

Despite being top scorer, big-money summer signing Awoniyi – who leads the ‘big chance’ table above – has only started six of his 13 appearances and was substituted by the 72nd minute each time. Maybe his goal in last Friday’s win over Valencia will lead to a run of starts; maybe not. It’s doubtful any FPL manager will be considering Forest forwards regardless, given the plethora of options elsewhere.

Gibbs-White is the name we’re keeping an eye on here. An ever-present starter since his full debut in Gameweek 4, he was deployed through the middle of a three-man attack in the final two matches before the World Cup break.

Above: Morgan Gibbs-White’s Gameweek-by-Gameweek breakdown

Ten penalty-box touches and six shots in the area duly arrived across Gameweeks 15 and 16, with his expected goal involvement (xGI) in each case (0.79 and 0.89) being his highest two scores of the season.

BEST ASSIST POTENTIAL

Above: Nottingham Forest players sorted by chances created (CC) per 90 minutes in 2022/23

On set plays, Gibbs-White also leads the way for chances created in this Forest squad.

Neco Williams (£4.0m) started the season well and the wing-back was seen as the best £4.0m defensive option in the game.

Nine chances were created by the Welshman in the first five Gameweeks, while he also had 11 shots of his own.

But with Gibbs-White belatedly arriving and stealing set plays from Williams, the budget defender has only created two chances from Gameweek 6 onwards.

We can’t even rely on the versatile Williams for starts now, with Serge Aurier (£4.5m) and Renan Lodi (£4.3m) the full-back pairing of choice immediately before the World Cup break.

UPCOMING FIXTURES

Nottingham Forest sit eighth on our Season Ticker from Gameweeks 17 to 22 and ninth over the next ten rounds.

It’s a favourable position but the hardest games come first – Manchester United (a) then Chelsea (H). The previously-postponed trip to Leeds United will also be added in at some point, creating a Double Gameweek.

UNLIMITED TRANSFER TARGETS

Dare we say ‘none’?

Whilst Nottingham Forest’s late run of clean sheets will add further potential to the many saves of Henderson, he is ineligible for Gameweek 17 against parent club Manchester United.

Williams has now slipped down the watchlist, too, after three benchings from the last seven matches, and he’s arguably now third in the £4.0m-ish FPL defender pecking order behind Hugo Bueno (£3.9m) and Nathan Patterson (£4.0m).

One huge differential from Gameweek 19 onwards is Gibbs-White, who signed for a club-record fee and brought 13 and 11 FPL points in the most recent two games. He scored the winner versus Palace, after bagging a goal and assist against Brentford.

We’ve discussed above his new ‘out of position’ role in the Forest attack and it’ll be worth monitoring his underlying attacking stats (if he indeed remains central) to see if there is continued improvement, with his side being near the top of our Season Ticker from Gameweeks 19-23.

For the time being, however, the likes of Miguel Almiron (£5.8m), Andreas Pereira (£4.6m) and maybe even Leon Bailey (£4.5m) merit their spots above Gibbs-White in the sub-£6.0m stakes at this time of unlimited free transfers.

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