This Members article series, reviving an old Scout strand called Tales of the Expected, explores the expected goals (xG) data from the last six matches, assessing each side from an attacking and defensive perspective.
We’ll also have a look at the players with the highest expected goal involvement (xGI).
Having last looked at these tables after Gameweek 31, it’s time to revisit them again, armed with the latest stats from our Members Area.
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TEAMS
XG: LAST SIX MATCHES
De Zerbi-ball continues to flourish on the south coast, with Brighton’s 6-0 victory over Wolves on Saturday their biggest-ever Premier League win. In the last six matches, they have racked up a whopping 17.2 xG, more than any other top-flight side. They face Everton in Gameweek 35, who are without a win in seven, which precedes back-to-back Double Gameweeks. Owning at least two of their attackers for this run feels almost essential.
The first part of Albion’s double-header involves Newcastle, another side impressing in the attacking third. In the next three Gameweeks, they host Arsenal and Leicester, sides who have struggled in defence recently (see below), as well as a trip to Leeds. The Whites conceded 23 goals in the month of April, a new, rather unwanted, record.
Staying with Leicester, they are growing in confidence, at least from an attacking perspective. They have racked up 2.1+ xG in each of Dean Smith’s four matches in charge, an impressive achievement given the issues inherited.
LEICESTER’S XG BREAKDOWN: LAST SIX MATCHES
| Under Smith | Under Sadler/Stowell | |||||
| GW34 (EVE) | GW33 (lee) | GW32 (WOL) | GW31 (mci) | GW30 (BOU) | GW29 (AVL) | |
| xG | 3.46 | 2.19 | 2.43 | 2.36 | 0.69 | 0.47 |
And what about Spurs under Ryan Mason? It all feels a bit chaotic, with five goals scored against Man Utd and Liverpool combined, but six conceded. In those two matches, they’ve created 4.51 xG.
Elsewhere, no side has underachieved more in front of goal than Chelsea in the last six matches, having netted just three times from 9.65 xG, while it’s all gone a bit flat at Aston Villa of late. Unai Emery’s troops have scored just two goals in their last three, combining for only 1.58 xG against Man Utd and Fulham.
ASTON VILLA’S XG BREAKDOWN: LAST SIX MATCHES
| GW34 (mun) | GW33 (FUL) | GW32 (bre) | GW31 (NEW) | GW30 (NFO) | GW29 (lei) | |
| xG | 0.56 | 1.02 | 1.74 | 1.93 | 1.30 | 1.02 |
XGC: LAST SIX MATCHES
1 year, 6 months agoBench Martinelli or March?