The Scout Squad’s best players for FPL Gameweek 38

It’s the final Scout Squad of 2022/23 as our in-house team of Sam, Marc, Tom and Neale debate the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) players they think should make the Scout Picks cut.

With the caveat that Thursday’s match between Manchester United and Chelsea could alter the thinking, the panel each select an 18-man longlist for Gameweek 38.

MORE ABOUT THE SCOUT SQUAD

The focus is only on the upcoming Gameweek with the Scout Squad, so there’s no medium-term planning involved.

The players who get the most votes are much more likely to make the Scout Picks, although the final XI can’t exceed £83.0m – so occasionally, cheaper alternatives have to be found.

Each of our writers must meet the following requirements for this feature:

• At least one sub-£5.0m goalkeeper
• At least one sub-£5.0m defender
• At least one sub-£6.0m midfielder
• At least one sub-£7.0m forward
• No more than three players from the same club

SCOUT SQUAD’S PICK OF THE BEST FPL PLAYERS FOR GAMEWEEK 38

Most popular picks: Sam Johnstone, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Mohamed Salah, Son Heung-min, Harry Kane, Erling Haaland (four), Gabriel Magalhaes, James Tarkowski, Eberechi Eze, Ollie Watkins, Jamie Vardy (three)

SAM SAID…

It’s here, the final week of the season. The last opportunity to secure those mini-league wins and climb through the overall ranks. Gameweek 38 is the time for educated gambles. It’s the time to protect yourself with the heavily owned status quo players but pair them with some great differentials who, if they explode, could lead to green arrows. This squad I hope balances those two needs.

In goal, I have plumped for Jordan Pickford. Everton need to win against Bournemouth in Gameweek 38 to secure their Premier League status for next season. The Cherries have failed to score in their last two matches and since ensuring their top-flight survival, haven’t won. Alongside Pickford, I also like the fixtures of David de Gea and Sam Johnstone in a tricky-to-call round for clean sheets.

Trent Alexander-Arnold, as he so often does, looks a fantastic option this week. He faces a Southampton defence that has conceded 69 goals this season, while Saints are weakest down their left flank having conceded 141 chances from that side – only two teams have allowed more this year. This also bodes well for Mohamed Salah, who will be operating from that side of the pitch.

James Tarkowski joins Pickford in the squad, as Bournemouth have conceded a league-high 181 attempts from set pieces this season. Tarkowski is one of Everton’s key threats from dead-ball situations and there’s double-digit haul potential there if the Toffees get a bit of luck at either end of the field. Luke Shaw, Gabriel Magalhaes and Pedro Porro also have attractive-looking fixtures on paper but also offer plenty of attacking threat, and those additional routes to points could be important on the final day when there is always a risk of an unexpected result.

The Liverpool attack has the potential to run riot in Gaemweeek 38 and I have decided to pair Salah with Cody Gakpo. The Dutchman has been unlucky in recent weeks having had a number of chances that have either not been converted or ruled out by VAR. Between them in the last four Gameweeks, Salah and Gakpo have had 34 attempts on goal, registering 11 attacking returns in the same period.

Son Heung-min is great at exploiting gaps in behind a defence and with Leeds needing to win Sunday’s fixture to give themselves any chance of staying in the Premier League, they will need to push on at some stage and likely play with the same high line as they did in Gameweek 37. Son has averaged 7.75 points per match against the Whites in the Premier League and has never blanked at Elland Road. At just 6.1% owned, he is also an attractive-looking differential.

I have also gone for two more low-owned options in the form of Jacob Ramsey and Dwight McNeil. Ramsey and Aston Villa have had a complete turnaround since Unai Emery took over in Gameweek 15 and now they are one victory away from European football next season. At the other end of the table, the corner-taking McNeil could prosper from Bournemouth’s vulnerability at set plays. With both of their sides needing a win, and at 1.2% and 0.8% owned respectively, they could give big green arrows to managers brave enough to bring them in for Gameweek 38.

Up top, Harry Kane leads the line. As with Son, he could exploit that Leeds high line and has returned 247 points so far this season, his best-ever FPL tally. If it wasn’t for Erling Haaland, he would be in everyone’s FPL team by now and he is likely to be my captain this weekend.

Jamie Vardy and Ollie Watkins make the line-up as I target the teams that have something to fight for this Gameweek. With European football and Premier League survival on the line, there isn’t much else needed to motivate them into good performances to end the campaign.

MARC SAID…

I found it really tough to confidently pick 18 players, with the final day being traditionally difficult. On top of that, this time the popular players have very little to play for. Only Everton, Leicester City, Leeds United and Aston Villa have clear reasons to win and the first three are down the bottom for a reason – hence FPL managers usually stay away. It’s particularly tough at the back, as Gameweek 38 tends to be full of goals at an above-average rate.

David de Gea will finish this season with the most clean sheets and his last six home matches have ended with one, so Fulham’s visit could chalk up another. Crystal Palace’s Sam Johnstone plays host to poor travelers Nottingham Forest, a side who’ve only scored ten goals on the road and are already safe from relegation. Goalkeeper number three was a struggle, with defenders being preferred from the other teams I back. Martin Dubravka will start for Newcastle United in place of the injured Nick Pope, away to a toothless Chelsea attack that has the lowest number of goals since Gameweek 12.

The attacking strengths of Trent Alexander-Arnold, Timothy Castagne and Pedro Porro are tipped to succeed, although the latter has just been benched for Spurs. Alexander-Arnold’s eight-match streak of FPL returns came to an end last weekend but he now gets to visit last-placed Southampton, whilst Castagne’s forays forward will be one of many tools needed by Leicester in their must-win clash with West Ham United. Perhaps James Tarkowski rises high to head home a dramatic Everton survival goal, or maybe Arsenal eventually keep a home clean sheet and Gabriel Magalhaes is there to benefit.

I believe there’ll be plenty of goals between Leeds and Spurs. The Lilywhites have been involved in 40 goals during their last seven final days, including nine for Harry Kane. This time, both he and Son Heung-min line up against an already-leaky team that knows they desperately need to win. Names like Rodrigo Moreno have a good chance of scoring for Leeds but it should also leave defensive gaps for Kane and Son to exploit.

Elsewhere, Mohamed Salah has 17 goal involvements from 14 matches and is a no-brainer versus Southampton, as Eberechi Eze has averaged 6.11 points throughout Roy Hodgson’s nine matches in charge at Crystal Palace. Their match with Nottingham Forest gives me the vibe of a stereotypical final-day bonanza and hopefully some team news leaks can confirm a start for cheap forward Odsonne Edouard.

Both Manchester sides meet in the FA Cup final and Pep Guardiola’s recent rotation chaos keeps me away from all assets except Erling Haaland. Even that pick is purely out of fear, as news of a start still won’t give me confidence that he’ll last an hour. Not that he needs that long to devastate. Of course, both managers may share the idea of fielding a first-choice XI that builds rhythm and momentum before heading to Wembley. However, a strong Manchester United team could still avoid risking Marcus Rashford, so Bruno Fernandes takes the remaining midfield spot.

To conclude, I’m tipping Gabriel Jesus to score for Arsenal against Wolves, with Jamie Vardy backed to show up on the big occasion and do his best to keep Leicester in the Premier League.

TOM SAID…

Goalkeepers are hard to choose in Gameweek 38 but I’ve gone with Jordan Pickford ahead of Everton’s meeting with Bournemouth at Goodison Park, considering that the Cherries have failed to find the net in each of their last two games, creating just one Opta-defined ‘big chance’. The Toffees haven’t kept a clean sheet since Gameweek 32 but it’s crunch time for Sean Dyche’s troops, who know a victory will preserve their top-flight status.

Meanwhile, Alisson is averaging 6.5 points per match across his last four starts and faces the division’s joint-lowest scorers at home in the form of Southampton. With very few ’keepers offering strong clean sheet potential in Gameweek 38, the same is true of defenders, so I have mostly included those I believe can get attacking returns.

Trent Alexander-Arnold is an obvious option considering that his total of six assists in his last nine matches is the most in the league. Unsurprisingly, the ‘inverting’ full-back is also top in his position for expected assists (xA) and big chances created across the same period.

I was torn between Yerry Mina and James Tarkowski but went with the latter considering he’s a bit cheaper. Bournemouth just keep conceding goals from set plays so I was immediately drawn to Everton’s centre-halves, both of whom carry a significant aerial threat.

Elsewhere, I’m a bit concerned Luke Shaw won’t start on Sunday, a key reason behind our decision to include Victor Lindelof in the Scout Picks ‘bus team’, so I may opt to discard him once I’ve watched Manchester United v Chelsea on Thursday. The same applies to team-mate Marcus Rashford, although the fact he missed Saturday’s win over Bournemouth arguably offers more encouragement he can handle the tight turnaround.

Mohamed Salah has racked up 11 attacking returns in his last nine appearances, while I think Son Heung-min and Harry Kane can capitalise on Leeds United’s need to go gung-ho and win on Sunday. The South Korean international is a last-week punt, but has decent underlying numbers under Ryan Mason, and could step up at Elland Road.

Eberechi Eze’s form is looking sustainable still as he added a fourth attacking return in as many games against Fulham last week. With a leaky Nottingham Forest side coming up on the final day, the fact he might be on penalties with Wilfried Zaha out bodes well.

As for Erling Haaland, Manchester City’s line-up feels almost impossible to call, at least at the time of writing, so perhaps they are best avoided in Gameweek 38, however crazy that sounds.

Finally, I want to throw my weight behind Aston Villa’s attack for their meeting with Brighton and Hove Albion. Victory for the hosts will secure European football for the first time since 2010/11 and that alone might be enough to suggest a win. But let us also consider that they have won six in a row at Villa Park and the Seagulls have already secured UEFA Europa League qualification on Wednesday. For that reason, I am including Jacob Ramsey, who has four goals and three assists in his last 11 matches, and Ollie Watkins in my Scout Squad selection.

NEALE SAID…

Pras’s assessment of this week of ‘content creation’ hit the nail on the head, as all of our best-laid plans could be undone by one bit of leaked team news 15 minutes before Sunday’s deadline. There’s a match sprint feel to it all: a snail-pace crawl towards the weekend and then a furious sprint to the finish.

All we can do in the meantime is speculate where the least shocking teamsheets will come from, and I’m sure I’m repeating what many others have said in focusing my initial efforts on the teams playing for seventh or Premier League survival.

There are six such picks in my selection: two from Everton, two from Spurs, one from Aston Villa and one from Leicester City.

Son Heung-min and Harry Kane are among the leading lights for shots taken on the counter-attack this season; at some stage, even if it’s not straight from kick-off, Leeds will have to attack their visitors as only three points will do.

Even a victory for Sam Allardyce’s side won’t be enough if Everton also win. It’s one of those match-ups made in heaven at Goodison Park, on paper at least, as a Bournemouth side that can’t stop shipping chances and goals from set plays come up against a Toffees outfit who are ranked second for opportunities from free-kicks and corners under Sean Dyche. Dwight McNeil would be my preferred midfield pick if we discover that he’s not playing at left-back again, while Dominic Calvert-Lewin comes into the reckoning if he’s passed fit. For now, though, I’ve gone with the aerial threat of Yerry Mina and Abdoulaye Doucoure.

The selections so far have been made with security of starts and ‘something to play for’ in mind but as we’ve seen over the years, the goal-fests and one-sided tonkings in Gameweek 38 are often in games where there’s not much meaningful at stake.

Southampton v Liverpool, for example, has ‘hammering’ written all over it but who starts? Would you be at all shocked if a departing James Milner takes the right-back slot and penalties off Trent Alexander-Arnold and Mohamed Salah respectively? Maybe the former’s bespoke ‘inverting’ role prevents that from happening now, but you get the general idea.

Manchester United’s proud home defensive record sees me nominate the budget Victor Lindelof, as he arguably stands the best chance of avoiding the axe if Erik ten Hag rests some key bodies on Sunday.

And good old Roy Hodgson has already come out and said that he won’t blood fringe players for the sake of it in the run-in, so Palace’s line-up – featuring the in-form Eberechi Eze and a recalled Odsonne Edouard – will hopefully be one of the easiest to second-guess against a now-safe Nottingham Forest side who have struggled away from the City Ground all year.

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