FPL Gameweek 18 differentials: Gross, Olise + Burn

Spot the Differential puts the spotlight on three players who all have an ownership of 5% or less in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Brighton and Hove Albion, Crystal Palace and Newcastle United, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

PASCAL GROSS

• FPL ownership: 3.1%
• Price: £6.4m

Pascal Gross (£6.4m) is in a fine run of form, having scored one goal and assisted four in his past five matches.

In that period (Gameweek 13 onwards), he’s attempted 12 shots and created 19 chances for his team-mates, with the latter total only beaten by Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.2m).

The German is the driving force behind Brighton’s attack and wherever he plays, continues to find himself in advanced positions.

Now, with Kaoru Mitoma (£6.5m) and Simon Adingra (£5.0m) set to depart soon for the Asian Cup and AFCON respectively, we think Gross could go up another level, in a similar way to how we viewed Dejan Kulusevski (£7.1m) without James Maddison (£7.8m) a few weeks back.

“I would prefer not to say too much about him, because people have not understood how good he is. I would like to be his coach for a long time at Brighton. He is greatly underestimated. His confidence has increased after playing with the German national team and he is becoming a top player.” – Roberto De Zerbi on Pascal Gross

A regular 90-minute man, Gross is very rarely afforded a rest, which should allow Fantasy managers to maximise Brighton’s forthcoming run, which places them top of the Season Ticker from Gameweeks 18 to 28.

He is also Brighton’s chief set-piece taker, which could be important with three of Albion’s next five opponents (TOT, WHU, LUT) ranked in the bottom six for efforts from set plays conceded in 2023/24 so far.

Gross is one of the best all-rounders in the Premier League and is vastly underrated, making him a nice differential pick.

MICHAEL OLISE

• FPL ownership: 0.3%
• Price: £5.8m

Despite a stop-start few months at Crystal Palace, Michael Olise (£5.8m) now looks ready to kick on.

His penalty against Manchester City in Gameweek 17 was his second goal in five matches, which coincided with Roy Hodgson pushing him higher and more centrally when out of possession.

Since making his first start of the season in Gameweek 13, Olise has racked up 11 shots and 12 key passes. He’s also whipped in 40 crosses, more than any other FPL midfielder bar Dwight McNeil (£5.4m).

Now, Palace host Brighton on Thursday, who have yet to keep a clean sheet this season. It’s a particularly appealing matchup for Olise, too.

Roberto De Zerbi will commit bodies forward so he should have space in transition. It’s also worth noting Pervis Estupinan (£5.0m), Tariq Lamptey (£4.0m) and Solly March (£6.1m) are all out injured, potentially leaving James Milner (£4.8m) to fill in at left-back. The 37-year-old was given a torrid time by Bukayo Saka (£9.0m) on Sunday, offering further encouragement.

Palace have just one win in 10 matches but have renewed their confidence having drawn at Man City, as they enter a decent run of games. In the next six Gameweeks, they face Brighton twice, an inconsistent Chelsea outfit, a Brentford side without Ivan Toney (£7.9m) and Bryan Mbeumo (£6.9m), plus Sheffield United.

Under Roy Hodgson, Olise has become a consistent performer (14 starts, two goals, six assists, nine bonus) and alongside the fit-again Eberechi Eze (£6.0m), can help turn Palace’s season around.

DAN BURN

• FPL ownership: 3.4%
• Price: £4.4m

Dan Burn (£4.4m) missed five Gameweeks with a back injury before returning to the Newcastle starting XI on Saturday.

Playing at both left-back and then central defence following Fabian Schar’s (£5.3m) injury, the 31-year-old put in an excellent performance as the Magpies won 3-0.

Burn scored against one of his former clubs and kept a clean sheet, claiming 14 points.

With favourable back-to-back matches against Luton Town and Nottingham Forest coming up, plus a budget £4.4m price tag, Burn should be under consideration over the festive period, particularly for those without Kieran Trippier (£6.9m).

Averaging a shot in the box every 102.7 minutes, he could get further attacking joy against the Hatters, who are poor defending set-pieces.

The away fixtures to follow are much trickier, but at just £4.4m, Burn can simply be benched and started when he plays at St James’ Park, where Newcastle have conceded only one goal in their last seven home outings.

Crucially, the Magpies’ next run of home matches includes Nott’m Forest, Luton, Bournemouth, Wolverhampton Wanderers and West Ham United in the next six.

It makes Burn an appealing long-term defensive pick, who surely won’t remain a differential much longer.

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