Who has the worst fixtures from FPL Gameweek 21 onwards?

Frisking the Fixtures returns as we take a look at the teams and players with attractive medium-term fixture runs from Gameweek 21. The most appealing ones are featured in a separate piece here.

December’s congestion is finally over, with only two Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadlines in January due to the FA Cup and winter break.

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SEASON TICKER OVERVIEW

BOURNEMOUTH

The Cherries’ Gameweek 20 defeat at Spurs ended a brilliant run of six wins from seven, in which four clean sheets were ket. From Gameweek 12, no team has outscored their 20 goals – even more impressive considering the abandoned Luton Town match means they’ve played one fixture fewer.

When including the cancellation, Dominic Solanke (£7.1m) netted in four successive matches before his Spurs blank. Even then, he racked up a season-best of nine shots and seven inside the box. In another classic ‘form v fixtures’ dilemma, FPL managers shouldn’t be deterred from keeping faith in Solanke.

Above: Teams sorted by fewest expected goals conceded (xGC) since Gameweek 12

Perhaps it’s different for those who own Bournemouth defenders. Arsenal are the sole team to concede fewer expected goals (xGC, 8.10) since Gameweek 12 but Liverpool, West Ham United and Manchester City will be particularly tough occasions. Marcos Senesi (£4.5m) picked up 40 points from the four before Spurs but is about to serve a one-match suspension.

Murara Neto (£4.6m) is the joint-fourth-best goalkeeper for points and rotates well with West Ham’s Alphonse Areola (£4.2m).

BURNLEY

From an FPL perspective, the one Burnley player with real ownership is cheap defender Charlie Taylor (£4.0m). Often there to take up a bench spot, the only matches he’d be recommended for are Luton and possibly Fulham, where they recently won the reverse meeting 2-0.

Further word will be awaited on his fitness after he came off in the FA Cup defeat to Spurs on Friday with a shoulder injury.

None of the Clarets’ midfielders have over 0.3% ownership but tough fixtures prevent any from being intriguing short-term replacements for Mohamed Salah (£13.2m) and Son Heung-min (£9.8m).

In slightly more teams is Lyle Foster (£4.8m). His first seven games brought three goals and two assists, before taking a break for his mental wellbeing. Now back, he assisted at Fulham and scored at Aston Villa. For squad depth, he’s arguably a better eighth attacker than Cameron Archer (£4.5m), costing only slightly more.

BRENTFORD

Meanwhile, neither form nor fixtures look good for Brentford. They’ve lost seven of the last eight and will soon face Spurs and Man City, still without injured star Bryan Mbeumo (£6.8m).

On top of this is the Bees losing Yoane Wissa (£5.7m) to AFCON duties, making Ivan Toney‘s (£7.9m) return from an eight-month ban brilliantly timed. His much-awaited first match back is at home to Nottingham Forest.

An interesting alternative is low-priced midfielder Keane Lewis-Potter (£4.7m). He’s started their last four matches and delivered two goals, surely keeping his place in the team.

Above: Teams sorted by fewest expected goals conceded (xGC) over the whole season

However, there’s an odd contrast in defensive numbers. Only four teams have fewer clean sheets than Brentford but just three others have done better for xGC (25.61) and preventing big chances (40). So it might be worth keeping a goal-scoring defender like Ethan Pinnock (£4.6m) or Ben Mee (£4.8m) around to occasionally rotate in.

CHELSEA

Moving onto a different letter of the alphabet, where ‘Cold’ Cole Palmer (£5.6m) is another whose form overrides tough upcoming fixtures. On penalties, his 18 open-play points at Luton was his fourth double-digit haul in 11 appearances. In fact, since his first start in Gameweek 7, he has the best expected goal involvement (xGI, 10.03) after Salah.

Above: Players sorted by highest expected goal involvement (xGI) since Gameweek 7

Midfielder Raheem Sterling (£7.1m) isn’t rotation-proof anymore but fully-fit Christopher Nkunku (£7.4m) could step in whilst Nicolas Jackson (£6.9m) is away representing Senegal.

These fixtures allow managers to get rid of defensive assets like Levi Colwill (£4.7m) and Thiago Silva (£5.0m), with Chelsea stuck on one clean sheet from 13 matches. The very cheap Malo Gusto (£4.2m) can be kept for the bench, having produced three assists in nine starts.

ALSO CONSIDER

Elsewhere, Everton had four successive shut-outs between Gameweeks 14 and 17 but subsequently let in eight from three. It’s hard to foresee another defensive success but Jarrad Branthwaite (£4.1m) is cheap, with James Tarkowski (£4.5m) the second-best defender for box touches (50) and fourth for headed attempts (nine).

Unreliable for fitness, Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.8m) is goalless in his last eight starts.

Former Toffee Anthony Gordon (£6.1m) is looking tired at Newcastle United but keeps starting because there’s nobody else. He’s not scored in six matches and the Magpies’ terrible form looks set to worsen. Even the supposedly nice-looking Luton, Forest and Bournemouth streak brings a trio of opponents they’ve recently lost to.

It might be worth persevering with Martin Dubravka (£4.2m) as he’s the rare FPL gem of a low-priced starting goalkeeper but the expensive Kieran Trippier (£6.8m) has only returned once since Gameweek 11. He at least recovered from a groin issue to feature in Saturday’s Tyne-Wear derby.

Speaking of Forest, they’ve started brilliantly under new head coach Nuno Espirito Santo. Even cheaper stopper Matt Turner (£3.9m) has begun all recent outings but tough times are on the horizon and their squad is decimated by AFCON absentees.

Chris Wood (£4.9m) and Anthony Elanga (£5.0m) are worth considering when you see their prices. During Santo’s three matches, Wood has four goals and an assist, whilst Elanga brought in one and three.

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