FPL Q&A: One-week punts, best third forwards + defenders

Our team of Hall of Famers and guest writers are writing about all things Fantasy Premier League (FPL) in 2023/24. Next up, seven-time top 10k finisher Zophar takes his usual weekly FPL Q&A.

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Q: With Free Hit in Gameweek 34 and Bench Boost in Gameweek 37 in mind, who are the best third forwards, in order?

(via @afarhan83)

A: I think with the above strategy, Erling Haaland (£14.3m) and Alexander Isak (£7.9m) are clearly the top two picks so let’s discuss the remaining alternatives.

Looking at the teams that double, the options are Joao Pedro (£5.2m), Rasmus Hojlund (£7.0m), Timo Werner (£6.3m) and Nicolas Jackson (£6.8m).

Starting with Werner, someone with excellent recent data but without much output. Whilst Richarlison (£6.8m) has been hurt, he has got quite consistent minutes on the left wing. Once the Brazilian is back to full fitness, it’s reasonable to assume that Ange Postecoglou will use Son Heung-min (£10.1m) on the left in some of their many matches, with Richarlison as centre-forward. He also seems more of the assister to me, with Brennan Johnson (£5.8m) the goal threat.

Meanwhile, the strong season-long underlying data for Jackson has dipped during the last few matches. Chelsea’s yellow card threshold won’t reset until Gameweek 34, making it possible for Jackson to get booked against Arsenal and miss both bits of Double Gameweek 35. So he’s difficult to recommend right now.

Just back from injury, Roberto De Zerbi said that Joao Pedro missed their Arsenal game due to playing 90 minutes versus Brentford. This hints that their top goalscorer is first choice for the remainder of the season and Brighton and Hove Albion only have to deal with a couple of short turnarounds, before Gameweeks 35 and 38.

By the time the latter rolls around, the Brazilian should have reached full fitness. But what’s concerning is the Seagulls’ huge dropoff in attacking numbers. They’ve had just three big chances over their last five matches and lack the same attacking swagger of 2022/23. Then again, his low price does allow managers to later move a defender to Kieran Trippier (£6.6m).

Moving onto Hojlund, he had a glut of goals before his recent injury but hasn’t looked fully ‘at it’ of late. What worries me with both the eye test and underlying numbers is the lack of service he’s receiving. Even so, the fixtures are good for him and all it takes is a couple of goals against Sheffield United for the confidence to return. His minutes are very secure and both games in Double Gameweek 37 are at home.

So with that in mind, for this week I would rank them in the following order: Hojlund, Pedro, Werner, Jackson.

Q: Which are the best one-week punts in each position? I’m on a Free Hit in Gameweek 34, Wildcard in Gameweek 35 then Bench Boost in Gameweek 37.

(via @AR_FPL147)

A: I think all roads point to Manchester City for this week’s punts. The goalkeeper spot is tricky as it could be either Stefan Ortega (£3.8m) or Ederson (£5.5m). I would probably go for Arsenal’s David Raya (£5.1m) but that feels quite dull.

In defence, I like Rico Lewis (£4.2m) because he’ll likely play an advanced role. Midfielder Jeremy Doku (£6.4m) should start against Luton Town, a team that has previously struggled with pacy wingers. And in attack, I think Julian Alvarez‘s (£6.4m) ceiling is high this week with a likelihood of playing all 90 minutes, whereas Haaland probably lasts until around the hour mark.

Q: Which defenders do you like most from now until the end? I’m on a Free Hit in Gameweek 34 and a Bench Boost in Gameweek 37?

(via FCH)

A: It’s really difficult to select defenders that you’d play in Gameweek 37. None of the six teams that play twice have two clean sheet ‘bankers’. I think Pedro Porro (£5.9m), Trippier (if fit, otherwise Dan Burn (£4.5m)), Diogo Dalot (£5.2m), Jan Paul van Hecke (£4.1m) and Malo Gusto (£4.3m) are probably my ideal five.

Q: Could you rank your top three Chelsea and Spurs picks for their Double Gameweeks 35 and 37?

(via @JohnHunterBiebs)

A: I think picking the first two from each is pretty easy. It’s Gusto and Cole Palmer (£6.1m) for Chelsea, plus Porro and Son for Spurs. If he’s not suspended, Jackson will probably be my third from the Blues while maybe looking at Johnson for Ange Postecoglou’s side.

Apologies for the shorter-than-usual article this week. I’ve been laid up in bed all week with a really bad bout of the flu!

My FPL Wire co-host Lateriser did a pod this week, discussing many relevant Gameweek 33 questions. You can check it out here:

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