A couple of rest days have given us plenty of time to mull over the Scout Picks for Matchday 4 of Euro 2024 Fantasy.
Not only do we get an increased budget of €105m but we can also select four players from one nation, as opposed to three.
This is essentially a ‘Free Hit’ XV for Matchday 4 only, with no thought given to later rounds.
Planning ahead is something that many Euro Fantasy managers will have to do, of course, if they’re now chipless. You can read more about that via the links below:
- READ MORE: Euro 2024 Fantasy: Using the bookies’ odds to plan transfers
- READ MORE: Euro 2024 Fantasy: How Lateriser plans to navigate the knockout rounds with no chip
GOALKEEPERS
Jordan Pickford (€5.0m) and Mike Maignan (€5.5m) are our chosen goalkeepers for Matchday 4.
For all of England’s failure to entertain and get the best out of their attackers, they emerged from the group stage with two clean sheets to their name.
Not only that but they also have the lowest expected goals conceded (xGC) tally of Euro 2024 so far. No nation has allowed fewer big chances (one), either.
Watching the Three Lions in action, you’d have to say that they’ve not looked as watertight on the eye as the numbers suggest. Their left flank is suspect, while some of the defending has been of the last-ditch variety rather than preventative further up the field.
Still, Pickford has become a dab hand at amassing clean sheets in major tournaments in recent years. Slovakia also have the second-worst xG tally of the nations to make it through to the last 16. The worst? Gareth Southgate’s side themselves…
If England do concede, we’ll switch to Maignan.
On the surface, France v Belgium is not a fixture where you’d expect the clean sheets to fall.
But eliminated Serbia were the only country to score fewer goals than the Red Devils in the group stage, with Domenico Tedesco’s side drawing a blank against Ukraine and Slovakia. Belgium have, along with England, been one of the bigger disappointments of the tournament so far. They were only one late Ukraine goal away from fluffing their lines and finishing bottom of what was arguably the easiest group.
If Romelu Lukaku (€9.0m) is still in a profligate mood, then Maignan can follow in the footsteps of Messrs Dubravka, Nita and Trubin in emerging with save points and maybe even a clean sheet.
| MD | GK | Shots Saved v Belgium | Total Points v Belgium |
| 1 | Dubravka | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Nita | 7 | 3 |
| 3 | Trubin | 4 | 7 |
DEFENDERS
You won’t be surprised to learn that we’ve maxed out on Spain players for their clash with Georgia. Two of them play in defence.
Marc Cucurella (€4.5m) and Dani Carvajal (€5.5m) had the luxury of a rest in Matchday 3, with their nation already qualified. They should return to the starting XI on Sunday.
These two are ball recovery monsters, accumulating a combined 28 of them so far. Bear in mind they both sat out the last game, too.
There’s some attacking threat, as well: Carvajal, by nature the most offensive of the two, scored in Matchday 1. Cucurella should have an assist against Italy.
Spain are the only country to have kept clean sheets in all three matches so far. While Georgia have shown attacking ambition, Luis de la Fuente’s side have already shut out Croatia and Italy.
The one nagging concern, as Joey Jo-Jo Junior Shabadoo pointed out in the comments section, is over what happens if Spain are cruising early on in their last-16 tie. Does their head coach take off Carvajal, who is on one booking, early and cost him clean sheet points? Aymeric Laporte (€5.0m) might be the safer bet, then, but we’ll throw caution to the wind with the higher-upside full-backs. Should something go wrong, Spain at least play early enough (Sunday) for any non-performers to be subbed out.
Maximilian Mittelstadt (€4.0m) was originally in our Scout Picks squad for Matchday 4 but suggestions that he might be benched for David Raum (€5.0m) have sufficiently spooked us into switching to Antonio Rudiger (€5.5m).
Rudiger himself, Germany’s leading defender for ball recoveries this summer, was originally a slight injury concern but now looks set to be fit. There aren’t too many alternatives in the Germany defence, with the uncertainty at left-back, Jonathan Tah (€4.5m) banned and Joshua Kimmich (€6.5m) listed as a midfielder.
We’ll keep the rationale behind Marc Guehi (€4.5m) brief as we’ve already discussed England’s defensive credentials above.
From an individual perspective, Guehi has amassed more ball recovery points (eight) than any other player at the tournament. That’s effectively two extra clean sheets.
Joao Cancelo (€6.0m) rounds off our defensive selection.
Drifting infield from his nominal full-back role, he could be seen in some threatening central positions in Matchdays 1 and 2.
His rate of touches in the final third (35.2 per 90 minutes) is better than any other defender who is expected to start in the round of 16.
Slovenia, along with Slovakia and Denmark, recorded the lowest number of big chances of the teams to make it through the group stage.
Above: Joao Cancelo’s touch heatmap at Euro 2024 so far
MIDFIELDERS
Before we get to our next Spanish pairing, three picks who make the top five of the midfielders’ non-penalty expected goal involvement (NPxGI) table: Ilkay Gundogan (€7.0m), Bruno Fernandes (€9.0m) and Marcel Sabitzer (€6.5m).
Above: Midfielders sorted by non-penalty expected goal involvement (NPxGI) at Euro 2024 so far
A big chunk of Fernandes’ xG figure is obviously the tap-in he scored against Turkey. And we’ve perhaps not seen him at his creative best yet, with only two key passes recorded – not helped by not having the monopoly over set pieces.
But he’s frequently getting up to support Cristiano Ronaldo (€10.0m) in the Portugal attack; look back at those highlights from the Turkey game and the number of times he’s just a pass away from being slipped in clean on goal.
Gundogan, meanwhile, has arguably looked the most threatening of Germany’s attackers, consistently taking up dangerous positions in the area. The Barcelona man has had six shots in the box at Euro ’24 so far, twice as many as any other of the hosts’ midfielders.
As for Sabitzer, it was a toss-up between him and Christoph Baumgartner (€6.5m). The latter more often gets the clearer chances. Sabitzer, who is on set plays, tends to shoot and create more.
SABITZER V BAUMGARTNER IN QUALIFICATION
We fully expect Baumgartner to start, given that he’s trained, but this line from Ralf Rangnick about the midfielder’s omission in Matchday 3 is maybe enough for us to side with Sabitzer. Baumgartner is also on one booking, so could theoretically be taken off a bit earlier if the victory is looking assured.
“If Italy hadn’t scored, we would have started with a different lineup. We chose an unexpected lineup, which paid off. We were able to go all out, we didn’t have to worry about players with yellow cards. If I tell Laimer to hold back, I don’t need to put him in the lineup. ‘Baumi’ had knee problems. I was able to use them as substitutes. The depth of our squad is greater than we thought.” – Ralf Rangnick on his starting XI v the Netherlands
As for the remaining two, representation from the Spanish attack is a must. Opponents Georgia have conceded the most shots at the tournament. Not only that but also big chances, shots in the box, and by some margin, xGC.
There’s a good quote about Pedri‘s (€7.0m) goal threat in Tom’s team reveal article this week: the midfielder exhibited that with two glorious chances in the Italy game. He’s also top of the Spain team for chances created, with six. The minutes are a slight concern given that he’s been taken off relatively early in both starts but the hope here is that plenty of damage has been done by the midway point of the second half.
Nico Williams (€7.0m) lit up the Italy game, too, securing the Player of the Match award despite otherwise blanking. Georgia have allowed more crosses and chances to be created from their flanks than any other nation, so the winger could get a lot of joy on Sunday.
FORWARDS
Four Spain players already means no Alvaro Morata (€8.5m), who could very easily have been included here. But we wanted a representative from the Netherlands attack, too, and none of their midfielders really appeal, unlike Spain’s. Xavi Simons (€7.0m) is about the best of them but you’re never truly convinced about his game time.
That’s why we’ve gone with Cody Gakpo (€7.5m), who has looked the most consistently impressive of the Dutch frontline so far. The leading Fantasy forward for chances created, he’s also drifting into some excellent shooting positions from his left-wing berth.
Above: Cody Gakpo’s shot heatmap at the Euros so far
He is joined by two more predictable names: Cristiano Ronaldo (€10.0m) and Kylian Mbappe (€11.0m). Neither has really hit their usual heights yet, the only goal between them being the French striker’s penalty.
They are, however, first and joint second among forwards for goal attempts. In addition to Mbappe’s spot kick, they have had three other big chances each. Quality will surely tell eventually.
We’re certainly not deterred by France’s fixture, with Belgian’s backline looking a lot creakier than the bare numbers suggest and yet to be really put to the test by a top-tier nation.
SCOUT PICKS TEAM CAPTAINCY SCHEDULE
- Saturday 29 June: Gundogan
- Sunday 30 June: Williams
- Monday 1 July: Ronaldo
- Tuesday 2 July: Gakpo
MATCHDAY 4: SCOUT PICKS
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