Can members of last season’s ‘200 points club’ do it again?

It looks like the cost of living crisis and runaway inflation rate has belatedly reached Fantasy Premier League (FPL) for the rapidly approaching 2024/25 season. Unlike last time, when most heavy hitters were affordable, many players have suddenly skyrocketed in price.

With budgets feeling very tight, the old adage of ‘you can’t have them all’ applies now more than ever. It means managers will have to make tough choices regarding which premium players to include for Gameweek 1 and beyond.

To help with such decisions, let’s take a closer look at the seven players who reached a double century of points and determine which ones have the best chance of doing it again. 

THE 200 POINTS CLUB

Here, the main stats we’ll be focusing on relate to volume (for both shots and chance creation) and whether the individual over or underachieved during 2023/24. 

Cole Palmer (244 points, £10.5m)

Starting with last season’s top FPL scorer, Palmer’s numbers look very healthy for a repeat performance. Having created a chance every 37 minutes (roughly three per game) and shooting every 20.2 minutes (four or five per game), he has sufficient volume to keep delivering goals and assists.

The Chelsea midfielder’s 20.2% goal conversion statistic is elite yet sustainable. And before anyone can chuck the ‘too reliant on penalties’ accusation at him, an impressive minutes per non-penalty expected goal involvement (NPxGI) rate of 133.6 suggests he can produce points at a healthy rate without spot kicks.

However, the only blemish is that Palmer’s expected goal involvement (xGI) delta of +6.04 indicates that he recorded six more attacking returns than the data said he would.

VERDICT: YES

The best Premier League players often overachieve on their expected numbers but perhaps it is more likely that Palmer will creep over 200 points, rather than almost reach 250 again. Especially when you consider that Chelsea have a new manager and Palmer has to adapt to a new playing style.

Phil Foden (230 points, £9.5m)

Looking at the raw numbers, it looks like Foden could have another 200-pointer. Creating a chance every 39 minutes and shooting every 27.3 of them is exactly where you want his stats to be, while a goal conversion rate of 18.1% is extremely respectable.

Yet scratch beneath the surface and a few red flags start to appear. Foden’s xGI delta is a whopping +9.73 and his 165.8 minutes per NPxGI is sluggish for a premium player. Furthermore, six of his 19 goals came from outside of the box (partly explaining his xGI overachievement) and, throughout 33 starts, he only registered 14 big chances.

It means he’s not consistently getting close-range, high-quality chances in this Manchester City side, instead relying on moments of magic to score points. Going forward, these are unreliable and less predictable.

VERDICT: NO

Although it’d be foolish to completely rule out a Foden repeat because his numbers are far from mediocre, there are some warning signs. The volume numbers aren’t backed up by big chances and he’s way above his expected stats. Perhaps it’ll be a very good FPL season, rather than a sterling one.

Bukayo Saka (226 points, £10.0m)

What do Saka’s numbers from last season tell us? In a nutshell, he’s Mr Reliable. This one is nice and easy. Everything looks good for the Arsenal winger in terms of underlying stats.

He created a chance every 32 minutes and took a shot each 27 of them. Additionally, Saka recorded a NPxGI every 133.9 minutes and his xGI delta of -1.50 suggests slight underachievement. Indeed, his goal conversion rate is a low 14.8%, which is the only slight negative in his across-the-board core data.

VERDICT: YES

Comfortably. Barring something unexpected or a substantial and sustained loss of form, of course.

Son Heung-min (213 points, £10.0m)

If this was anyone else, Son’s 2023/24 stats would look slightly worrying. 43 minutes per chance created, 34.4 minutes per attempt, an xGI delta of +6.65 and an NPxGI every 155.6 minutes.

But the Spurs attacker has repeatedly proven that he can feast on points without the volume. Although he shot and created less frequently than other premiums last season, they tended to be of a higher quality. 19 of his 85 shots were labelled as a big chance and 20 of the 68 chances created were deemed big.

What’s more, Son’s goal conversion rate of 20% was just as good as it usually is, reinforcing the fact that he can ‘do more with less’ when it comes to bagging FPL points.

VERDICT: YES

A clinical player, Son was able to score just as often as his heavy-hitting contemporaries despite them shooting and making key passes at a much faster rate. It therefore isn’t asking much for the South Korean to be presented with the same level of lacklustre numbers in the upcoming season and do just as well.

Mohamed Salah (211 points, £12.5m)

The lowest-scoring player in this article is also FPL’s second-priciest player. We don’t know how Salah will perform, with it being the first time he takes instructions from a new Liverpool manager, but there’s a reason why he is considered the GOAT of FPL. Since arriving, the Egyptian has exceeded 200 points in all seven seasons averaging a whopping 249 of them. 

Moreover, his underlying numbers from 2023/24 suggest it’ll happen for an eighth time. He created more big chances than everyone else (22), took a shot every 22.4 minutes; delivered a healthy goal conversion score (15.8%) and had a minutes per NPxGI rate of 110.3. In fact, Salah’s xGI delta (-0.71) says he pretty much kept up with these stats.

VERDICT: YES

History shows that he should easily reach 200 points again. But is he worth two-to-three million more than this list’s younger counterparts, most of whom have the stability of working under the same manager as before? Maybe not, if you’re going to splash out on Erling Haaland and consistently captain him.

Ollie Watkins (228 points, £9.0m)

Moving onto forwards, the Aston Villa talisman’s numbers from last season are probably the most interesting. Nobody registered as many assists (18) but, even though 71 minutes per chance created is good for a forward, it’s still more than double that of a midfielder like Saka. So don’t expect Watkins to win playmaker of the season again.

Not only that, his +10.96 xGI overachievement is league-leading. Most of this comes from expected assists (xA) because his goal-scoring metrics remain solid. With a shot every 30 minutes, a 17.8% goal conversion rate and 152.8 minutes per NPxGI, this should soften the blow of his probable decline in assists.

VERDICT: NO

2023/24 was a huge xGI overachievement for Watkins and topping the assists chart looks like a statistical anomaly.

Erling Haaland (217 points, £15.0m)

Let’s not beat around the bush, Haaland’s goal threat numbers are so good. They’re scarier than Watkins hiding under Az’s bed with a hockey mask on.

With the worst rate of chance creation from these names (every 88 minutes), don’t expect the assists to flow, but the Norwegian was presented with a staggering 55 big chances last season – 15 more than the next best, Newcastle United’s Alexander Isak.

Saka may be Mr Reliable but Haaland is definitely ‘King of Big Chances’. His 2022/23 campaign had even more of them, 59, where Marcus Rashford was far behind in second place (35).

Last time, Haaland had a shot every 21.2 minutes, a 22.3% goal conversion rate and 101.5 minutes per NPxGI, which was the best in the league for anyone with more than two starts. His xGI delta of +0.46 points to such expected data being bang on the money.

VERDICT: YES

Much like Salah at Liverpool, Haaland should consistently exceed 200 points season after season. The big question is whether he is worth the record-breaking £15.0m, which is £6.0m more than the same Watkins who outscored him by 11 points.

Ultimately, answering this likely depends on how often he’ll get the captaincy armband. Yet it would take something truly Herculean for another player to beat Haaland’s underlying attacking stats.

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