Will the new transfer rules change the way we play FPL?

Heading into Gameweek 3 of Fantasy Premier League’s (FPL) 2024/25 campaign, former champion Simon March wonders how the game’s new transfer rules will affect strategy and decision-making.

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In the days before the official FPL game opened for the 2024/25 season, those who run the game (Mark Sutherns and a team of trained hamsters, if you believe the theories) casually dropped news of what appear to be several significant rule changes concerning transfers. As of this season, the maximum number of accruable free transfers has increased from two to five and managers no longer have to use or lose stored transfers prior to playing the Wildcard or Free Hit chips.

While FPL managers seem to largely be in favour of the new rules, there has been some debate as to their impact on strategy and the extent to which they might affect how we play the game. These topics will be the focus of this week’s article.

Burning Transfers

Speaking as somebody who reluctantly sold Ollie Watkins (£9.0m) before last season’s hat-trick and two assists against Brighton and Hove Albion so that I wouldn’t have to ‘burn’ a transfer, I’m grateful that I’ll likely never have to experience that horror scenario again (still not over it). I imagine I’m not alone in that sentiment.

On the other hand, I’ll miss the freedom to make the guilt-free ‘vanity transfers’ that the same scenario could sometimes afford us. In particular, the one-week punts that would often precede a Wildcard. These aren’t necessarily a thing of the past but, since they will now, more often, require an active choice on our behalf, they feel psychologically different and maybe a bit less fun as a result.

Strategic Impact

I’ve long felt that one of the behaviours that correlates most strongly with success in FPL is how frequently a manager uses two transfers versus one at a time throughout a season. The reason is that you can often achieve more with two transfers than just one.

In the latter scenario, your transfer options are typically limited to players within the same price bracket as the player you are selling. However, with two transfers, you can shift your budget between positions and have far greater options as a result.

This felt like an in-game reward for demonstrating patience which, we know, is often the most difficult of all behaviours to maintain, not least consistently.

Arguably, the new rules reward this particular virtue even further and we might logically conclude that – if you do indeed gain an advantage from using two transfers rather than one at a time – then it should be even greater if you regularly use three, four or five of them together.

Yet, while there is probably some truth to this perspective, it doesn’t account for the cost of our inactions, which may increase with every saved transfer.

As much as FPL is a marathon, when we zoom in on it, it has many of the characteristics of a sprint. We often need to move quickly to make the most of positive fixtures, capitalise on runs of form and navigate the ever-evolving price changes.

Equally, rotation and injuries may force our hands when it comes to transfers. If we don’t actively fight the fires when they emerge, the damages can quickly outweigh the benefits brought by patience.

With all this in mind, while we could potentially make dramatic improvements to our teams using four of five transfers, when we factor in the opportunities that we might miss while accruing these, the optimal number to use at a time is likely to remain around two or three.

Premium Hokey Cokey

Due to their high price, premium players often involve the most difficult transfers and FPL managers have historically had to nail their colours to the mast when it comes to selecting high-profile names – if not for the entire season, then for long stretches of it. The alternative, of course, is to take hits.

But being able to use three or more simultaneous transfers makes dynamically switching between premiums far more of a viable prospect. Particularly when budgets are tight, the winning strategy might have less to do with which premiums you choose and more to do with when you choose them.

Equally, while conventional wisdom has always been to look at fixtures in manageable blocks of four to six, our ability to leverage three or more transfers might cause us to reconsider this. Within the new dynamic, an optimal planning horizon could reduce considerably, perhaps to just two or three matches, forcing us to be more active and engaged than what previously felt necessary.

Taking Hits

Since we are no longer forced to use at least one transfer every two Gameweeks, it’s reasonable to think that – unless we are playing a particularly aggressive strategy – it will be easier to accrue what we might consider ‘rainy day’ transfers. Those that sit in our account until we need them. One consequence of this is that taking four-point hits should become less necessary.

If this is indeed the case it will be interesting to see its strategic impact because, if taking too many hits was a flaw of your game historically, the new rules might save you from yourself. Then again, if taking hits was a strength – and I’m convinced that some managers are better at taking hits than others – you then face the question of whether there is still an advantage to be gained here.

You can still continue being more aggressive with your transfers than others and use hits to keep ahead of the curve. But if fewer are being taken overall, every hit you do take weighs that bit heavier. If you’re somebody who takes at least 10 of them per season, even a slight skewing in the risk/reward equation could negatively impact your overall performance.

Summary

The initial impact of the new rules regarding accruing transfers will likely appear incremental rather than transformational. However, in the same way that turning a ship even an inch to the left will, over a long enough distance, have a dramatic impact on where that ship ends up, the subtle changes that the rules will introduce may end up being hugely significant by the end of the season.

Early signs suggest that these changes will continue to reward patience but too much of it can be detrimental. We will likely discover the right balance over time but, as tempting as it may be to punch that fifth hole in your free transfer loyalty card, this game moves fast. You don’t want to let it pass you by. Plus there is no free sandwich.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the rule changes will be the new strategies that may evolve out of them and it’s possible that the fixture horizons we work towards could shorten and the way we manage players – premiums in particular – may become more dynamic than before.

Managers who are particularly aggressive when it comes to making transfers and taking hits may have more to think about. While such strategies remain valid, if fewer overall hits are taken, each four-point loss becomes that bit more significant.

Even managers who tend to benefit from taking hits may find that the payoff isn’t quite what it used to be.

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