Welbeck v Pedro: Who is the best Brighton forward in FPL?

Whether Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers are ditching Erling Haaland (£15.2m) for a heavy midfield, ruthlessly moving on Chris Wood (£6.6m) or finally giving up on Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.8m), it’s hard to ignore Brighton and Hove Albion’s strong upcoming fixtures when searching for a new forward.

Therefore, Gameweek 11’s comeback cameo haul from Joao Pedro (£5.4m) was well-timed. Without a start since the third week due to an international knock, then a bigger ankle problem, he came off the bench to equalise against Manchester City and set up Matt O’Riley‘s (£5.5m) winner. An 11-point haul from 32 minutes.

So how does he compare to team-mate Danny Welbeck (£5.9m) – FPL’s third-best forward so far? Let’s look at the main factors.

STATS

While Joao Pedro has struggled to stay fit, Welbeck has been a nailed-on starter for the Seagulls. The latter is currently joint-eighth throughout the league for attempts (33) and joint-seventh for shots on target (12).

However, a fuller story emerges when looking at key performance indicators (KPI), levelling out their huge difference in playing time.

Here, the Brazilian has a better rate of goals, big chances and FPL points but Welbeck is more frequent with shots and expected goals (xG).

Neither player has taken a penalty this season.

It’s worth mentioning that we’re dealing with a small sample for Pedro, who has only made five appearances – two off the bench.

POSITIONING

Perhaps a more interesting comparison looks at who is best when they’re playing together. The first 77, 78 and 81 minutes of Gameweeks 1, 2 and 3, plus Joao Pedro’s short appearances in Gameweeks 5 and 11 add up to a total of 292 minutes.

Although Joao Pedro took the plaudits during Saturday’s shared pitch time, their contributions are fairly even. Thanks to Statsbomb, we have a visual layout of these 292 minutes.

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