This latest Tales of the Expected article explores the expected goals (xG) data from the last six Gameweeks.
We will assess each side from an attacking and defensive perspective.
We’ll also look at the leading players for expected goal involvement (xGI), as well as the best and worst finishers.
TEAMS
OPTA EXPECTED GOALS (xG) – LAST SIX GAMEWEEKS
| Team | xG | Goals | xG delta | Season Ticker rank (GW6-11) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12.59 | 14 | +1.41 | 4th |
| Chelsea | 11.87 | 10 | -1.87 | 17th |
| Arsenal | 11.64 | 10 | -1.64 | 13th |
| Brentford | 11.64 | 15 | +3.36 | 2nd |
| Manchester City | 10.84 | 9 | -1.84 | 6th |
| Liverpool | 10.36 | 11 | +0.64 | 12th |
| Bournemouth | 10.31 | 10 | -0.31 | 19th |
| Fulham | 10.15 | 9 | -1.15 | 8th |
| Newcastle United | 9.69 | 6 | -3.69 | 18th |
| West Ham United | 9.51 | 8 | -1.51 | 5th |
| Brighton and Hove Albion | 8.60 | 11 | +2.40 | 20th |
| Aston Villa | 8.06 | 7 | -1.06 | 14th |
| Nottingham Forest | 7.97 | 9 | +1.03 | 3rd |
| Manchester United | 7.93 | 7 | -0.93 | 10th |
| Crystal Palace | 7.37 | 4 | -3.37 | 11th |
| Leicester City | 7.26 | 8 | +0.74 | 9th |
| Ipswich Town | 7.01 | 9 | +1.99 | 7th |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 6.81 | 11 | +4.19 | 16th |
| Everton | 6.75 | 5 | -1.75 | 1st |
| Southampton | 5.01 | 5 | -0.01 | 15th |
Tottenham Hotspur remain top of the xG chart, ahead of both Chelsea and Arsenal.
Averaging above 2.0 xG per game, they are also first for shots in the box (73) and second only to Manchester City for shots on target (34).
‘Angeball’, at least from an attacking perspective, looks well equipped.
That said, there is an outlier in the six-game sample: Spurs broke their record for xG in a Premier League match in September’s 3-0 win over Manchester United.
In arguably their most complete performance of the season, Tottenham produced 4.59 xG.
In the next five matches, they averaged a much more modest 1.59 xG per game, an upper mid-table figure.
There is no movement for Chelsea, either, who stay second.
What’s impressive, however, is that while Enzo Maresca’s side ranked third on our Season Ticker the last time we checked in, this time they had a much tougher schedule (BHA/NFO/liv/NEW/mun/ARS).
It offers hope they can kick on in the coming weeks and months, with an easier on-paper run:
Arsenal’s creative drop-off is also worth touching on.
Having racked up 7.43 xG against Southampton and Leicester City in Gameweeks 6 and 7 respectively, they’ve since managed just 4.20 xG in their last four matches (bou/LIV/new/che).
Trickier opposition, yes, but Mikel Arteta will be hoping Martin Odegaard’s (£8.2m) return to action can help boost those numbers.
The Gunners captain started Sunday’s 1-1 draw at Chelsea, assisting Gabriel Martinelli’s (£6.9m) goal and, somewhat surprisingly, lasting the full 90 minutes.
At the foot of the table, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Everton and newly-promoted Southampton occupy the bottom three.
Sean Dyche perhaps has the most cause for alarm.
Despite facing the likes of Southampton, Ipswich Town and Crystal Palace, the Toffees have been toothless in attack, creating just 5.01 xG.
In fact, in only three games this season have Everton finished with a higher xG than their opponents, a real concern.
OPTA EXPECTED GOALS CONCEDED (xGC) – LAST SIX GAMEWEEKS
9 hours, 14 mins agoxG = expected gout. Figure rises dramatically during the international break, particularly pommy players.